Home / Articles / Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 11 Analysis & Review

Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 11 Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 19, 2018
   
Print This Article    Add This Article to Favorites

Thursday, November 15, 2018 Green Bay Packers vs. Seattle Seahawks (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -159 Seattle Seahawks Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Thursday Playoff Eliminator (WIN) The loser of this game could pretty much think about next year. There's plenty of motivation with the home-standing Seahawks. The past 3 seasons we've seen Green Bay win 17-9, 38-10 & 27-17. However, ALL of those were @ Lambeau Field. Does home field mean something? Ask that question to some of the best QB's in the league like Aaron Rodgers & Tom Brady. Those 2 have combined for a 2-7 SU record on the road this season. For this one, Green Bay is FAR from fresh. They're down the stretch of a 4-game road trip in a 5-game period. Seattle gets RG D.J. Fluker & RB Chris Carlson BACK this week. Minus both, the Seahawks still ran for 273 yards last week's 36-31 loss @ the L.A. Rams. They now have Carlson (4.5 YPC), QB Russell Wilson (6.4 YPC) & rookie sensation Rashard Penny (108 rushing yards last week averages 4.7 YPC this season) running a 3-headed monster that should control possession time. My bottom line says Seattle's "D" is playing well (ranks 7th in total defense) which is a BIG boost for their offense that's now rushed for over 150 yards in 6 straight games. HC Pete Carroll knows how to get his team for a short week. The past 8 Thursdays has seen his squad go 7-0-1 ATS. With triple revenge AND numerous injuries to key Pack personnel, the momentum should go the Hawks' way as they try to make up ground in stealing the last NFC Wild card spot (currently 1 1/2 games back). We're going up to CenturyLink Field in Washington to play the SEATTLE SEAHAWKS as my NFL Thursday Playoff Eliminator! Sunday, November 18, 2018 Denver Broncos vs. Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-117 Denver Broncos Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (WIN) The Broncos are 3-6 SU & are the epitome of "Ugly Pigs" receiving no love from the betting public. Let's examine this heated AFC West rivalry much further. The Los Angeles Chargers are humming right now. However, in their 4 home games (London game included) we've seen them accumulate a low +2.25-point winning advantage. Two of those games were played against 2-7 SU San Francisco & 1-8 SU Oakland (which should be 0-9 due to an officials error). For this matchup, there's NOT much separation as far as ratings are concerned. L.A. rates a few ranking spots higher on offense than Denver while the Broncos are a Top 10 passing "D" compared to the Chargers' ranking 16th. Even though Denver is 3-6 SU, the majority (4 of 6) of their losses have been by 7 or less. Vance Joseph & Co. are fresh off the bye & that's bad news for QB Philip Rivers as OLB & defensive MVP Von Miller comes to town to pad his 15 career sacks against him (Miller's highest against ANY team). Now let's examine some strong analytical stats that tilt the scales in our favor. Besides being a dominant 19-9 ATS on the divisional road the past 8 seasons, Denver is a near-prefect 13-1 ATS when the game total is higher than 44 (check current number). In addition, the Chargers have lost 5 of 6 to the number off consecutive roadies then taking on a revengeful opponent. The daggers for us HAVE to be the Broncos being a stellar 15-4 ATS coming off rest plus a loss while also being a perfect 8-0 versus the number & SU if their opponent has won 2/3 or better games coming in (L.A.'s 7-2 @ a .778 winning percentage). Here's the key numbers. Let's stroll out to Carson, CA @ L.A.'s temporary home - the Stub Hub Center to play the DENVER BRONCOS (buying to + 10 1/2) as my NFL Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-104 Minnesota Vikings Rating: 8* Mike's Sunday Night Prime-Time Bailout Play (LOSS) This is a pretty BIG game for 1st play in the old "Black N' Blue" NFC Central Division. Both defenses are rated in the Top 5 in total defense, rushing defense & sacks. However, the KEY in picking this winner who takes over sole possession of the division is preparation. Minnesota HC Mike Zimmer's "D" is improving & his usual 4-3 "over" with an aggressive double-A gap blitz packages is SECOND TO NONE when ran right. They set a franchise-record 10 sacks (31 this season) in their last game versus Detroit 2 weeks ago. A big boost is inevitable since the Vikes get back 2 key personnel, SLB Anthony Barr & SS Andrew Sanjevo. This series now shows repetitive patterns of alternating close games (FG or less) & double-digit wins for the past 3 seasons. After a 13-point decision back on New Year's Eve, look for this one to go to the wire. In the battle of QB's, I clearly give the nod to Minnesota's Kirk Cousins (2,685 passing yards, 71.3% completions, 17/5 TD/INT ratio, sacked 24 times & good for a 102.2 QBR) over Chicago's Mitch Trubisky (2,304 passing yards, 65.5% completions, 19/7 TD/INT ratio, sacked 18 times for a 101.6 QBR). Cousins has "Big Game" experience 7 has TOO MANY weapons. Besides deep threat WR's Adam Thielen (74 receptions for 947 yards & 7 TD's) & Stefon Diggs (58 receptions for 587 yards & 4 TD's), RB Dalvin Cook(4.1 YPCarry & 9.8 yards per reception) is BACK & now gives the Vikings that added 3rd speedster they've been missing earlier. My bottom line says the kicking duties for the Purple N' Gold may have been taken care of with the signing of Dan Bailey. However, the Bears' K Cody Parkey is a concern after missing 4 kicks ( 2 extra-points) last week versus Detroit. Now let's dig deeper as we look @ a dependable HC in Mike Zimmer (6-2 SU lifetime versus Chi-Town). He's a jalapeno-like 12-1-2 ATS versus a team off a SU/ATS & double-digit win. On the flip side, Da Bears are not only 5-11 SU ATS off a double-digit win but a perfect 0-6 versus the number as favorites of less than 7. The dagger in this one is the Minnesota "D" that's yielded a suffocating 25.7% conversions on 3rd down. Remember, Chicago has beaten the Jets, Bills & Lions in succession who've combined to go a staggering 9-20 SU thus far. This step-up to reality does the Bears in (1-10 SU their last 11 divisional games) versus a 2-1-1 SU road team (lone loss @ the L.A. Rams) that simply out-classes them. Let's go to legendary Soldier Field to take the MINNESOTA VIKINGS (buying to a key + 4 1/2) as my Sunday Night Prime-Time Bailout Play! Philadelphia Eagles vs. New Orleans Saints (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-114 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) In the NFL (stands for Not For Long) there's always been a constant flux when it comes down to crunching numbers. It's easy to say that New Orleans QB Drew Brees (2,601 passing yards, 77.3% completions, 21/1 TD/INT ratio, sacked just 9 times for a brilliant 123.8 QBR) will carve up the Eagles' secondary since LCB Jalen Mills & RCB Ronald Darby (but CB Sidney Jones is back) are both out. However, what the mushes didn't figure on is a Philly offense that should ALSO click against a vulnerable secondary that's only as strong as FS Marcus Williams & LCB P.J. Williams make it. Philadelphia QB Carson Wentz (2,148 passing yards, 71% completions, 15/3 TD/INT ratio, sacked 23 times & good for a not too shabby 108.5 QBR) ALSO has enough weapons including the newly acquired WR Golden Tate & TE Zach Ertz to exploit the Saints' secondary. Wentz's (has thrown multiple TD's in 6 straight games) protection should be beefed now that Eagles' RT Lane Johnson is back in commission. WR Alshon Jeffery has also had BIG days against New Orleans in both starts tallying up 14 receptions for a whopping 296 receiving yards. On the flip side of the coin, NO signed WR Brandon Marshall (was released by the Seahawks) since newly acquired Dez Bryant is injured & out for the season. The "Mardi Gras Boys" still have their #1 WR intact with Michael Thomas (78 receptions, 950 receiving yards, 7 TD's) AND dual-threat RB Alvin Kamara (546 rushing yards, 11 TD's, 55 receptions, 3 TD's) that should get the majority of targets & touches. My bottom line says that Philadelphia is a TOUGH team to blowout. They've lost by more than 7 points ONCE in their last 31 games! In fact, their accumulated losses in this regular season only average out to 4 points & change. In the numbers clearly show the Eagles are 17-8-2 ATS as dogs when coming off a SU favorite defeat. The dagger for us has to be this reliable "defending Super Bowl champs" system. When the champs are underdogs coming off a SU favorite loss AND facing a team coming off a win by 7 or more, those SB champs have gone 9-0-2 ATS. Here's a side note. You'll also see the Eagles wear their home green as a result of Saints' skipper Sean Payton beating Philly HC Doug Pederson @ the annual coaches' golf outing @ the owners' meeting in March. Regardless of some offensive personnel out for the Eagles, NO's "A Game" is next week when they take on a Falcons' team @ home. They needed OT to best Atlanta 43-37 the 1st time around. Remember, New Orleans is just 2-10 ATS in non-divisional home games coming off a non-divisional game where they've score 40 or more. Let's go down to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome to play the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (yes, we're buying in @ a + 10 1/2) as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 17-10 for 63%
 


Click here to view all of Mike Handzelek 's premium picks.





10StarPicks Newsletter

Sign Up To Receive FREE PICKS Daily.

First Name:

Last Name:

E-mail:



Featured Subscriptions


Chip Chirimbes
ALL Access Pass ALL SPORTS Money Plays

Chip Chirimbes the 'Big Game Player' and Three-time Handicapping Champion is offering SEVEN full days of ALL SPORTS winners for only $149. Take advantage now with the HOTTEST HANDICAPPER in the Nation as his RED HOT streak continues. - $149.00


Doc's Sports
Doc's Sports 30-day All Access Pass (Just Lowered)

Get all the Doc's orders in every sport for 30 days at this ridiculously low price right here on this website! Comes complete with 24/7 online access and support and get 30 DAYS ALL SPORTS NOW! Everything you need to WIN BIG! - $450.00



Today's Free Picks

Please check back for more free picks!

Hottest Handicappers