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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 11 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 21, 2019
   
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Monday, November 18, 2019 Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -250 Kansas City Chiefs Rating: 10* Mike's MNF High-Altituder (WIN) I feel the 6-4 SU Kansas City Chiefs & HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid have the right philosophy approaching this game in altitudes over 7,000 feet. Nope, there won't be any fanfare as in practicing in Colorado like L.A. did. It's just fundamental football where they'll get in & get out of Mexico City quickly & tactically. The KEY factor for this game is how well Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes (2,626 passing yards, 66.3% completions, 18/1 TD/INT ratio, sacked 10 & a superb 114.1 QBR) has healed from his dislocated kneecap. Try 446 yards & 3 TD's versus the Titans last week. On the flip side of the coin, the Chargers are 4-6 SU & seem to play good enough to stay close before they tease you in the end. They lost to the Lions on the road 13-10, they were on the short end @ Tennessee 23-20 & got edged in Oakland 26-24 last week. My bottom line says we'll see a focused KC bunch that will be tough to get off the field once they get it cranking. Look for TE Travis Kelce doing excellent vertical routes in the middle lanes where the Chargers' secondary has struggled. Expect Mahomes (with the #1 passing offense in the NFL) to get the ball out quickly to negate pressure coming from DE's Joey Bosa (8.5 sacks) & Melvin Ingram III (4.5 sacks). Even though L.A. may have some backdoor cover potential, they won't get the SU win versus an angry Chiefs' squad that's lost 4 of 6. In addition, Rivers hasn't look sharp this season (14/10 TD/INT ratio & a 90.6 QBR) even though he got great contributions from dual-threat RB's Mevin Gordon & Austin Ekeler along with WR's Keenan Allen & Mike Williams. When the early adrenalin mellows out & the dust clears, I'm expecting KC to widen it's gap for the lead in the AFC West when it entertains Oakland in 2 weeks after their bye week next up. Let's get ready, let's get set, we're off to Estadio Azteca in Mexico City to play the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS for the "W" as my MNF 10* High-Altituder! Sunday, November 17, 2019 Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -300 Buffalo Bills Rating: 9* AFC East Contender/Pretender Play (WIN) The big question the last few weeks has been if Buffalo is a contender or a pretender for an AFC playoff spot. There's one thing we can safely say about the bills this season. they KNOW how to beat the patsies! All 6 of their wins came against teams who were .500 or worse. Reality says 2nd-string QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (61.5% completion rate, 8/8 TD/INT ratio) has a very low 77.5 QBR & now gets a more-familiar Bills' defense that's ranked 3rd overall & 3rd against the pass. Fitzpatrick was 2nd-choice for a reason over rookie Josh Rosen for a reason. Why? Because he's mostly struggled against the elite defenses. Their current 2-game winning streak was largely due taking on a Jets' squad that were clearly looking ahead to the Giants AND also matching up nicely versus a Colts' team without WR T.Y. Hilton & with 3rd-string QB Brian Hoyer throwing 3 INT's. They won't have that same luck here. In Buffalo's earlier 31-21 win over the Pride of South Beach, RB Frank Gore was used sparingly but amassed 5 yards per carry for the game. That continues to be a thorn in the Dolphins' side as they've slid to 30th versus the run heading into this one. It's going to be hard to beat teams (that don't turn the ball over multiple times) when you're average time of possession per game is close to minus 5 minutes. My bottom line points out that Bills' QB Josh Allen has been maturing well of late. Not only has he rushed for 6 TD's thus far, but also he passed for 2+ TD's with no INT's his past 4 games. In the numbers show us Buffalo's 6-1 SU (only loss to New England 16-10 because of 4 INT's) when rushing for 100+ yards & 0-2 SU when held under 100. In addition, Miami is a dismal 20-44-3 ATS @ home off 2 SU wins but are currently 0-6 versus the number when a dog in that situation. The current 5th-seed in the AFC playoff picture knows this week versus Miami, next week versus Denver & week 17 versus the N.Y. Jets are 3 must-win situations since they take on 4 tough ones in between versus Dallas, Baltimore, Pittsburgh & New England. Not having skill position players like Alabama products S Minkah Fitzpatrick & RB Kenyan Drake will start to show against live competition. Let's go to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens to play the BUFFALO BILLS for the "W" as my AFC East Contender/Pretender Play! New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/100 Philadelphia Eagles Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Don't under-estimate what last game out told us about these 2 teams. The mushes are over-eager to hand NE a 14-2 regular season & a return trip to the Super Bowl. I'm thinking the opposite. Remember, these same Patriots have played the 32nd (easiest) toughest schedule to date. Despite this fact, New England's in the middle of the pack @ 15th offensively. QB Tom Brady has great stats with a 14/5 TD/INT ratio & a 93.1 QBR. But Eagles' QB is slightly better with a 15/4 TD/INT ratio & a 93.7 QBR. Controlling the clock will be key & it starts with a ground game. Considering facing the easiest schedule, the Tea Men still fail in comparison to the Philadelphia running game with a 4.2 to 3.3 YPC deficit. Many handicappers point out revenge for the Super Bowl as a winning angle. However, the last 2 times HC Bill Belichick & Doug Pederson met have seen Pederson come out 2-0 SU! The blueprints for Wentz has been laid by the Ravens 2 weeks ago. Being mobile out of the pocket & establishing a running game with rookie RB out of Penn State Miles Sanders. After we dug in a little deeper, we've under-covered that this will be the first time the Patriots will face a Top 10 defense (Philadelphia's 8th) & second time meeting up with a Top 10 rushing defense (faced the Bills & won 16-10). Similar to the Steelers-Browns clash where Pittsburgh enjoyed a +13 to -8 (+21) turnover differential & lost SU, the Patriots enjoy a +17 to -1 (+18) gap over Philly's Finest. Even though Philadelphia will be missing RB Jordan Howard & WR Alshon Jeffery, they get key OT Jason Peters back. On the NE side, key S Patrick Chung will be out with heel & chest injuries. Crunching some numbers, Wentz comes in on a 12-game streak of 1 passing TD or more that is the 2nd-longest active streak in the NFL. Historically, this series has seen the underdog cover the past 5 of 6. The Eagles are also 4-1 ATS the last 5 versus NE. My bottom line emphasizes how Philadelphia gets up against winning teams where they've gone 6-1 ATS the last 7. In addition, teams that start the 1st half undefeated & are coming off their 1st SU loss have gone a struggling 1-7 ATS if favored by 4 1/2 or less. Taking the bye week into account, it's the Eagles who are an insane 14-1 SU with rest versus non-divisional opponents including 5-0 ATS as a non-divisional dog. On the flip side, the Tea Men will continue to give WR's Julian Edelman & brand-spanking new Mohamed Sanu targets since RB Sony Michel's YPC average has dipped from 4.5 to 3.3 despite facing the easiest schedule. However, the real X-Factor is how effectively WR Jordan Matthews can be stretching the NE secondary. Taking in a key intangible, Philly is still a desperate team that MUST win the division unless current Wild-Cards falter. Let's travel to Lincoln Financial Field to grab the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (buying to +6) as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Chicago Bears vs. Los Angeles Rams (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6/-105 Chicago Bears Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Sunday Night Bailout Play (LOSS) Bears' DC Chuck Pagano should be licking his chops! He gets the chance to face an L.A. Rams offense minus 3 offensive lineman (6'8" OT Rob Havenstein/knee injury, OG Joseph Noteboom/torn ACL & MCL in right knee) & reliable WR Brandin Cooks/concussion). The Bears' pressuring 3-4 defensive scheme should create havoc since DT Nick Williams (team sack leader with 6 & a strong 3-technique type) & OLB Khalil Mack (5.5 sacks) will be lined up with Los Angeles' most-vulnerable tackles. Remember, the Rams could only muster 6 points versus Chicago last year when the offense was really clicking. It seems QB Jared Goff (4 INT's & a safety versus the Bears) has regressed since Super Bowl film against New England exposed him. I don't think offensive guru & HC Sean McVay can effectively alter his playbook enough to compensate for missing personnel. This is the harsh reality since L.A. hasn't mustered 1 TD in their last 19 possessions. Ironically, not my favorite son & Chicago QB Mitch Trubisky (8/3 TD/INT ratio, 63.6% completions, 85.2 QBR) has better stats than Goff (11/9 TD/INT ratio, 60.3% completions, 82.7 QBR)! Why? Because his awareness in the pocket & quick-read decision making isn't up to NFL par. In the numbers quickly point out the Rams are no-shows in Week 11's going 3-12-2 ATS as well as a no-show 0-3-1 ATS in November. On the flip side, the Bears have been a successful 7-2-1 versus the number versus L.A. including 4-1 ATS @ this venue. November has brought out their best of late covering their last 5 of 6. The Chicago "D" (ranked 4th in scoring "D") has already obtained key blueprints from the L.A.-Pitt game where the Rams were able to convert just 1 of 14 3rd-down tries & 3 points on the scoreboard. It looks like a field position-type game is forthcoming! I'm ready to bolt to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to play the CHICAGO BEARS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my 8* NFL Sunday Night Bailout Play! Houston Texans vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4/-105 Houston Texans Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) I really love what QB Lamar Jackson (2,036 passing yards, 65.9% completions, 15/5 TD/INT ratio, 6 rushing TD's, sacked 18 times & a 101.7 QBR) brings to the city of Baltimore. However, the Texans have their own magic @ QB with Deshaun Watson (2,432 passing yards, 70.2% completions, 18/5 TD/INT ratio, 5 rushing TD's, sacked 25 times & a 107.1 QBR). This is a game of strength on strength that pits the Ravens' rushing attack (#1 in the NFL) versus Houston's rushing defense (#3 in the league). My bottom line quickly points out a step up in class for Baltimore (off a 49-13 blowout win @ Cincinnati) who now take on a 37-year vet DC Romeo Crennel's 3-4 defensive scheme whose had 2 weeks to prepare for Jackson & Co.. Even though the Baltimore running game gets most of the attention, the Texans aren't too shabby either as they rank 4th in that category as well. HC Bill O'Brien's crew has been tough to blowout. In their past 25 regular season games, NOBODY has beaten them by more than 7 points! In addition, this AFC South leader has excelled in the past as an underdog going 6-2 AND as a roadie with a window-cashing 8-2-1 mark their past 11. In the numbers also show us HC John Harbaugh registering a meek 37-49-4 ATS record (43%) when favored. Not to be under-estimated for the Texans are 2 key returning parts as they get their best CB in Bradley Roby & WR Wil Fuller back from injuries. The daggers for us begin with pointing out the Ravens' ATS record versus the AFC South when coming off a win. In this situation, Baltimore has gone a no-show 1-11-2 versus the number. Sealing the deal is Houston's near-perfect 12-1 ATS record in their 5th roadie of the season. Let's travel to M&T Bank Stadium in Inner Harbor to play the HOUSTON TEXANS (buying to +6) as my 9* NFL Earlybird Dependable! NOTES: I'm frustrated as hell would be an under-statement after the results of the Philadelphia & Chicago contests. Let's save the eagles for a separate article. However, it looks like the Bears front office of Chairman Of the Board George H, McCaskey, President CEO Ted Phillips & General Manager Ryan Pace are using horrible tactician & HC Matt Nagy like a pawn. They're OBVIOUSLY forcing him to use QB Mitch Trubisky (even when injured for 2 quarters last week) based on money spent INSTEAD of using the QB with more talent in Chase Daniel. It's a shame that DC Chuck Pagano's defense held the rams to 17 @ home & couldn't get the outright "W" because of front office stupidity. Gentlemen, you have to face it & cut your losses before it's too late. Moving on, the cold weather that was affecting QB Deshaun Watson was written all over his face (completely covered in practice) as he looked more like Nanook of The North than an NFL QB. Ending the week the BIG 10 Star came through in flying colors as L.A. Chargers' QB Philip Rivers did we does in the 4th as the Chiefs won 24-17. After the way this week went (feel we should of went 4-1), look for LARGE things for Week 12! Mike Handzelek's 2019 Week 11 NFL Record: 2-3 for 40% With 10 Star Winner Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 23-17 for 58%
 


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