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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 10 Sunday Analysis/Review/Notes/Look-Aheads


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 15, 2018
   
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Sunday, November 11, 2018 New Orleans Saints vs. Cincinnati Bengals (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.0/-110 Cincinnati Bengals Rating: 7* Mike's NFL Earlybird (LOSS) This is NOT the mushes week! It started Thursday as we had Pittsburgh while the mushes LOADED up on Carolina. It continues today! This seems like a fishy game since the New Orleans high-powered offense (#2 in scoring) goes up against the #32 & dead,-last in total defense Cincinnati Bengals. Upon deeper examination, you'll find the Saints' passing "D" is ranked 31st. O'h yes, those "Autumn Winds" are definitely upon us. With this games comes along my road exhaustion theory where good teams stumble IF the criteria is met. Not only does the criteria fit, New Orleans is in a long sandwich. They come off Baltimore, Minnesota & the L.A. Rams but have a game with the Super Bowl Champion Eagles immediately on deck. The Saints now play a rested Cincinnati squad that's covered 10 consecutive times 98-1-1 SU) as home dogs versus the NFC AND have covered 5 straight versus NO. I feel New Orleans has won the dice roll too many times. They've beaten Baltimore due to a rare missed extra point. The Vikings had them beat but had 2 crucial turnovers that dramatically changed the outcome. They now take on QB Andy Dalton (17/8 TD/INT ratio, 92.9 QBR) is on target to set a career-high in TD passes & faces a defense line (4-3 scheme) without their rookie sensation DRE with second-best pass rusher Marcus Davenport. Even though WR A.J. Green (toe injury) will not play, RB Joe Mixon is healthy again. The Bangals' "O" had 2 weeks to prepare for this one AND have the #1 red-zone offense (@ 77% TD's). My bottom line says even though Alvin Kamara & Michael Thomas will get their share, Cincinnati should keep pace in the elements which plays into their hand. The Saints have played 1 game versus the AFC on grass & outdoors. That was against the 2-6-1 SU Cleveland Browns in which they pulled out a narrow 21-18 win. Let's brave the winds @ Paul Brown Stadium as we hop on the CINCINNATI BENGALS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my NFL Earlybird! Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-115 Detroit Lions Rating: 7* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Everyone is judging the Lions on a recent "Eye Test" as 24-9 losers @ Minnesota. That would be clearly be a classic case of public missed perception. Yes, the Bears won 41-9 in Buffalo last week. However, they did with 2 defensive TD's & just 190 total yards (64 rushing-124 passing) of offense. Throw out the rankings, padded wins versus weak AFC East teams & the stats because this is a deep rivalry that involves 2 "Black N' Blue Division" rivals that barely get big separation. If you've carefully examined the past 5 meetings of this series, you would have found wins by 3, 10, 3, 3 & 4 which averages out to about a 4-point win. The Bears have been over-priced frequently as witnessed by 5 of 7 series' covers by Detroit. My bottom line says the Bears thrive on turnovers. The problem is QB Matt Stafford (14/6 TD/INT ratio) doesn't give up much. Look for Stafford to make adjustments without the recently-traded Golden Tate (now in Philadelphia) & close the gap by games end. This game represents the 1st of 2 meetings in the next 11 days (playing @ Detroit 12:30 on Thanksgiving). Because of the fact that HC Matt Nagy being a conservative play-caller, it will tough to separate them from the Lions in the end. Besides controlling the number (5-2 ATS) in this series, Detroit has won 9 of the last 10 SU. The dagger for us is this. Chicago has NOT beaten any NFC North team SU in their last 10 divisional games! Let's go to Soldier Field with confidence as we take the DETROIT LIONS as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! NOTES/LOOK-AHEADS: The week started well with the Steelers cruising but ended on a sour note as our rare bad-beat on the Bengals saw their "D" looking like they had no clue on how to stop Nawlins' on their Ohio home turf. Even though the Bears came in losers of 10 straight divisional games in a row, they caught a big break when Detroit turned one- dimensional when leading TD man & WR Marvin Jones, Jr. left for the game early due to a knee problem. This left QB Matt Stafford without 2 of 3 of his main receivers (Tate now with Philly) which made preparation much easier. The same thing happened to New England as Tom Brady lost WR Julian Edelman to an ankle injury & then TE Dwayne Allen to the same (TE Rob Gronkowski also was inactive). As a result, Tennessee's rookie HC Mike Vrable (ex-Patriot) loaded the box & limited the Pats to 40 rushing yards on 19 carries. Under new OC Matt LaFleur, the Titans' running game was solid with Derrick Henry & Dion Lewis getting the bulk of team's 150 yards on the ground that led to a 6 minute possession time advantage. LILB Wesley Woodyard was a beast (7 tackles & 3 assists) inside DC Dean Pees (came over from Baltimore) 3-4 scheme that limited Brady to Josh Gordon connections (12 targets but just 4 receptions) throughout the game. Hey, could it be that the Buffalo Bills have found a QB? At least against the Jets, Matt Barkley passed for 232 yards & 2 TD's/0 INT's then watched his ground game rush for 212 yards (LeSean McCoy led with 113 yards) as they enjoyed close to a 19-minute possession time advantage. New York QB Josh McCown (subbing for Sam Darnold) failed to spark the Jets' offense as he mustered 135 passing yards & ended the day with 2 INT's & no TD's (17 of 34 passing). Besides the early Green Bay @ Seattle Thursday game, others to watch are: Minnesota @ Chicago, Houston @ Washington, Philadelphia @ New Orleans, Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville & Monday-nighter Kansas City & Los Angeles Rams (now being played @ the L.A. Coliseum due to bad turf in Mexico City). We'll have a game Thursday night & the deepest Sunday card to date for the weekend. Let's get'em! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 15-8 for 65%
 

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