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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 10 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 15, 2017
   
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Monday, November 13, 2017 Miami Dolphins vs. Carolina Panthers (NFL) - 8:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -8.5/-110 Carolina Panthers Pick Title: 8 Star MNF Smart Side (WIN) This game again has that Jon Q Public view that the Dolphins are for real @ 4-4 & the Panthers 6-3 record is inflated. Sorry mushes, that's far from the truth. The truth off the matter is that Carolina will play (1 game behind division-leading New Orleans& travel there in 3 weeks) here with the bye week next week followed by a game @ the New York Jets. I'm not too sure how much Miami has left in their tank having their 3rd prime time game in a row. They're also throwing a rusty S in T.J. McDonald into the mix for the 1st time after serving his 8-game suspension for violating the league's personal conduct policy. The 2 facts for me about the Dolphins that stand out concern their "ZERO" rushing TD's on the season & their defense have turned in just 3 INT's (offense threw 9) in 8 games. I love playing against one-dimensional offenses on MNF against excellent defenses & that's just what we have here. Miami is super-struggling to score and/or sustain drives on the road. They've already lost on the road to the New York Jets by 14, to New Orleans by 20 & by 40 to under .500 Baltimore! The Fish have the 31st-rated offense overall, 30th in rushing & 29th in passing. They now take on the #1 rated defense overall, 6th versus the pass & 2nd in recorded sacks. My bottom line says QB Cam Newton still has enough weapons (after the Kelvin Benjamin trade to Buffalo) to score AND keep the ball away from weaker teams like Miami. The Panthers hold the ball for an extra 7 minutes MORE than their opponents per game & face a Dolphins' squad who convert a very low 31% on 3rd down through the halfway point of the season. Look for OC Mike Shula to utilize dual-threat RB Christian McCaffrey (183 rushing yards, 1 TD & 406 receiving yards & 2 TD's) by matching him up one-on-one with a favorable matchup in the Dolphins' defense. My dagger says once Miami gets behind & is forced with Cutler to try & catch up, turnovers start to happen. Are you listening Luke Kuechly? He is & probably set to bait Cutler into 2 or more INT's. We're ready & we're set to play this game @ OUR strategic number. Since I feel 6 is the safe or more number, let's go to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to play the CAROLINA PANTHERS (buying right @ - 5 1/2 @ -200) as my 8 Star MNF Smart Side! Sunday, November 12, 2017 New York Giants vs. San Francisco 49ers (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -143 New York Giants Pick Title: 9 Star Battle Of The Also-Rans (LOSS) Yep, both of these are playing for pride (but they know it's draft choices) here as these teams come into this one with a combined 1-16 SU record. for the Giants, their defense gets an enormous boost with CB Janoris Jenkins set to return from suspension. I also feel New York should get some major production today from their 3rd-year RB out of Tulane - Orleans Darkwa. Darkwa has run the ball effectively (67 rushes for 345 yards) @ a 5.1 YPR clip. Look for Darkwa & Giants' WR Sterling Shepherd (27 receptions for 333 yards) to make like easier for QB Eli Manning (1,820 passing yards, 63.2% completions, 12/6 TD/INT ratio, 6.1 YPPA, sacked 19 times & a 85.4 QBR) who shined big against the Broncos (23-10 win in Week 6) in their only trip neat the west coast. It doesn't get any easier since the 49ers "D" comes into this one ranked 32nd in rushing defense & 27th overall. San Francisco concludes their 4-game stint versus the NFC East where they currently sit 0-3 SU & have out-scored by an average score of 33-15. If you think New York is worse, think again! They face rookie QB out of Iowa - C.J. Beathard (941 passing yards, 50.9% completions, 2/4 TD/INT ratio, 5.8 YPPA, sacked 16 times & a 62.7 QBR) whose easily bated into throwing INT's of late which leads to double-digit deficits very difficult to overcome. Remember, the Jimmy Garrapolo experiment waits in the wings which should hit after their bye week on November 26th @ home versus Seattle. Don't forget, the past 24 games the 49ers sit a Tampa Bay expansion-like 1-23 SU since September 18th of last year (beat the L.A. Rams on the road on Christmas Eve 22-21). I also feel HC Kyle Shanahan's complex & multiple schemes will take awhile to take root. I believe Garrapolo might be the right fit but only after he gets some mileage. That should take the rest of the season. Let's go to Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara to play the NEW YORK GIANTS as my 9 Star Battle Of The Also-Rans! Minnesota Vikings vs. Washington Redskins (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1.5/-107 Washington Redskins Pick Title: Mike's 9 Star Barking Out Loud Earlybird (LOSS) I'm not convinced that the Redskins left EVERYTHING on the field in their big upset last week versus the 12th man up in Seattle. In fact, numbers don't lie as Washington has covered 7 of their last 9 in this role (home underdog) for a sweet 78% ATS. I'm looking for a better performance in front of their partisan crowd after coming up short versus Dallas here just 2 weeks ago. Yes, Minnesota is coming off their bye week which didn't work out so well after their one last year. In fact, they've come in off their last 7 bye weeks & have left with just 1 ATS win. I feel as the season progresses, the Vikings' absence of the star rookie RB sensation Dalvin Cook will show as good defenses will make Minny look one-dimensional & force QB Case Keenum (1,610 passing yards, 7/3 TD/INT ratio, 63.9% completions, 6.9 YPPA, sacked 5 times, 88.8 QBR) to beat them through the air. I feel this game is a battle of which QB steps up to make clutch plays. I also feel they'll be that psychological shadow playing behind Keenum since the Vikes just activated Teddy Bridgewater. Redskins' QB Kirk Cousins (2,147 passing yards, 13/4 TD/INT ratio, 67.9% completions, 8.0 YPPA, sacked 22 times, 102 QBR) has shown he CAN work through offensive line injuries & make necessary adjustments. My bottom line says Keenum should have success finding TE Kyle Rudolph throughout but I feel CB's Josh Norman & Bashaud Breeland should force some TO's during obvious passing situations. Keenum has thrown an INT in 3 straight games. In addition, 4-4 SU Washington responded well with backs against the wall & I feel will come up big again late against a 6-2 SU Purple Gang that have a decent lead in the division half way through. Yes, HC Mike Zimmer's bunch have a stingy defense. However, look for the home team to match their intensity & take this to the wire! We'll trek to FedEx Field in Landover to play the WASHINGTON REDSKINS (taking a ballsy buy up to + 3 1/2 @-167) as my 9 Star Barking Out Loud Earlybird! Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.0/-115 Green Bay Packers Pick Title: 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week (WIN) This pick has avoided of late but not for long! It appears that Chicago should generate a multi-turnover game out of 3rd-year QB Brett Hundley (489 passing yards, 1/4 TD/INT ratio, 58.8% completions, 5.0 YPPA, sacked 8 times & 58.3 QBR) & cruise to a victory. I'm here to tell you that looks are deceiving. This is the Black N' Blue Division where everyone beats you up physically. Yes, the packers rolled the Bears 35-14 earlier @ Lambeau. But the key to remember is how DC Dom Capers frustrated the Chicago offense with his blitz packages out of his 3-4 defensive alignment. This should give Chicago rookie QB Mitch Trubisky (512 passing yards, 2/2 TD/INT ratio, 47.5% completions, 6.4 YPPA, sacked 11 times & a 66.3 QBR) fits whose offense is averaging just 14.5 PPG the last 2 (Pack' @ 17 PPG that same span). This series is rich in history with the Packers' going 38-14 SU the past 25 years. During that time, it's either been Favre or Rodgers for Green Bay @ QB but the only side is now into their 19th different QB with Trubisky now @ the helm. This marks the 6th time these Bears have been installed as favorites under HC John Fox. His previous straight up & spread record is 0-5 & 0-5! The "Monsters Of The Midway" are also only 3-11 ATS of late in this series but an ice-cold 1-6 ATS @ this venue. Don't expect us to continue hovering around 50% like the 1st half. That was then & this is now with the numbers set to flip the other way. But it's paramount to play the right side @ the right number to start on a roll. The oddsmakers have over-emphasized the Hundley thing with GB getting this many points. However, the key number to remember here is 7. My bottom line stresses that since the Packers have responded well after a MNF game & then playing a divisional game. They've won ATS in this situation the past 5 instances & get our nod here. I feel turnovers should be a wash here as well as the game. Let's go to Soldier Field to play the GREEN BAY PACKERS (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -175) as my 8 Star Ugly Pig Play Of The Week! Los Angeles Chargers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -215 Jacksonville Jaguars Pick Title: 10 Star Public Missed Perception Play Of The Week (WIN) I understand that ALL the trends & numbers point directly toward the Los Angeles Chargers here. I also understand that Chargers' DC Gus Bradley (coached the Jags the past 4 seasons before moving on to L.A.) & his combo DE sack-pack of Joey Bosa & Melvin Ingram (17 total sacks this season) are coming to town. However, that same defense has shown susceptibility to the run (ranks next to last @ 31st) which can be traced directly to their - 5 1/2 minutes of possession time per game. For this matchup, I believe the Jacksonville Jaguars "D" is the true story. Their defense is 1st in the NFL in sacks with 35 & are 1st in pass defense (3rd overall "D"). On the flip side of the coin, QB Blake Bortles (1,657 passing yards, 10/5 TD/INT ratio, 59.4% completions, 7.1 YPPA, sacked 11 times & a 86.4 QBR) has become a better game manager with a lot less turnovers (threw 10 INT's @ this point LY). Part of the Jaguars offensive success can be attributed to rookie RB out of L.S.U. - Leonard Fournette (130 rushes, 596 rushing yards, 6 TD's, 136 receiving yards & 1 TD) who has Jacksonville sitting atop of the NFL in rushing offense. The Jags have controlled the line of scrimmage as shown by their excellent advantage in time of possession averaging a + 4 1/2 minutes per game. Jacksonville faces a Chargers' "D" that yield a high 42.2% on 3rd-down conversions. My bottom line says the Jags should cash in with a superior defensive playmakers like FS Tashaun Gipson (leads team with 3 INT's), OLB Telvin Smith (2 INT's), CB A.J. Bouye (2 INT's) & their ball-hawking, trash-talking 2nd-year CB out of Florida State Jalen Ramsey (2 INT's). The dagger for us has to be Tom Coughlin (Executive VP Of football) who has DC Todd Wash (HC Doug Marrone kept him after Bradley left LY) implementing a similar system he used with the Giants. It's worked like a charm as Jacksonville's stuck with a 4-3 defensive scheme but have thrown wrinkles into it. They sometimes interchange safeties, stress man-coverage in the secondary & try to stay fresh on the defensive line using a two-platoon system in some instances. DE Calais Campbell has a league-leading 11 sacks & should be able to rattle L.A. QB Philip Rivers (2,028 passing yards, 13/6 TD/INT ratio, 60.5 % completions, 7.1 YPPA, sacked 11 times & a 88.4 QBR) into mistakes. What's the Chargers record when this happens? In the past 15 games, Rivers had just 1 turnover-free game against Denver, a 21-0 win. In the other 14 games in which L.A. has turned it over, the Chargers SU record is a no-show 3-11! Momentum favors the Jags who cruised 23-7 @ home last week versus offensively-challenged Cincinnati while L.A. comes off their bye week but off a 21-13 loss again on the east coast @ New England (who ranks 32nd in total defense). Forget those historic trends, we're going to Everbank Field in Florida to play the JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS as my 10 Star Public Missed Perception Play Of The Week! New York Jets vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1.0/-110 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick Title: 8 Star Line Mover Hostile Takeback (WIN) This line is moving in the right direction. However, this is a pivotal week for us to dominate so we need to play the right side @ the right number & not being forced to play an adjusted number. Whom have the Jets beat on the road this season in 4 tries? That's right! The win-less Cleveland Browns by a 17-14 count. So why the love on the struggling Buccaneers who last won a football game in Week 4 versus another New York team (Giants) on this field 25-23. looking @ offensive numbers, Tampa Bay ranks 13th overall & 3rd in passing offense heading into this one. I love the situation where a now clean-shaven ex-Jets' & now Bucs' backup, the 34-year-old QB journeyman Ryan Fitzpatrick (4/2 TD/INT ratio & a 95.7 QBR) is put into a revenge situation against his former team. My bottom line says the Jets ran the ball 41 times last week & shouldn't be as fresh coming off their rivalry game with Buffalo. HC Dirk Koetter hasn't seen the best atmosphere of late in his locker room. However, this is week for WR DeSean Jackson & 1st-round rookie draft pick out of Alabama TE O.J. Howard to shine. Even though the Bucs failed @ home versus New England & Carolina of late, they also beat the Chicago Bears & the New York Giants who seem more close to the caliber of the New York Jets. Let's go to Raymond James Stadium in Florida to play the home-standing TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (buying to + 3 1/2 @ -180) as my 8 Star Line Mover Hostile Takeback! Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-110 Cincinnati Bengals Pick Title: 9 Star Trusting The Gutter Play (WIN) This pick has a double meaning to it as it's from the gut taking a team in the gutter. There's not overwhelming evidence either way here. However, the Bengals seem to rise up when least expected (Green Bay & Buffalo) & now are getting more than a FG+ versus a Titans' team that has thrown 7 TD passes but given up 15. Add to the mix a QB in Marcus Mariota who doesn't seem up to this point all the way back from his injury. Andy Dalton has a higher QB rating thus far even though the eye test fails us. Dalton goes from facing the best pass defense in the NFL to one that ranks 19th. O'h how I'm getting that feeling of a nail-biter very strong here with the more-desperate Bengals hangin' in versus a not-to-be-trusted home favorite. Let's go to Nissan Stadium in Nashville to play the visiting CINCINNATI BENGALS as my 9 Star Trusting The Gutter Play! NOTES: Week 10 went pretty close to what we predicted with a few snags we weren't counting on. The Redskins down 11 chose to go for the FG (down to 8) instead of the TD which pretty much meant the cover for us. The Giants' loss for us pretty much seals it for McAdoo as the team CLEARLY has QUIT. You know things are SUPER BAD when the 30th-ranked offense in the NFL puts up 474 total yards on you. It's nice to see Jacksonville pull out a rare 10 Star win for us in OT since they led almost every important statistical category. You can tell GB QB Hundley is clearly listening to Rodgers' words carefully (manage & establish the ground game with no TO's on the road). Looking for that key NFC East rivalry game this weekend between Philadelphia & Dallas in front of 80,000 fans @ the multi-billion dollar venue of AT&T Stadium. The L.A. Rams @ Minnesota contest should have post-season preview all over it. We'll breakdown what's making the Eagles tick in a forthcoming piece before Saturday. Look for ANOTHER successful weekend in the NFL! 2017-18 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 30-28 for 52% Trending >>>>
 

  Mike Handzelek
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