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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 10 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 17, 2020
   
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Thursday, November 12, 2020 Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans (NFL) - 8:20 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1/-110 Indianapolis Colts Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Intra-Divisional Survivor Play (WIN) This is your classic spring-backer with the Tennessee Titans getting out-gained in a 7-point win over Chicago & the Indianapolis Colts out-stating Baltimore in a 14-point loss. The Colts as well as their HC Frank Reich (3rd season & 8-5-1 ATS in his division) come into Nashville with a 2-0 SU record (won in 18' 33-17 & last year 19-17) there the last 2 seasons. What really separates these 2 is their defenses. The Horseshoes come into this game ranked 1st in the NFL in total defense. The Titans "D" who run a 3-4 alignment currently rank 25th overall & have given up around 28 PPG over their last 4. Last week, Nick Foles out-gaining Tennessee marked the first time Chicago out-stated anyone in his 6 starts there. HC Mike Vrabel has shaken things up a bit (not for the better) by electing NOT to replace DC Dean Pees who held that position last year. He's now using a collaborative effort with 5 coaches (Terrell Williams, Shane Bowen, Anthony Midget, Scott Booker & the most-notably Jim Haslett, the Inside Linebackers Coach. On the flip side, the Colts' "D" under DC Matt Eberflus will run a 4-3 & should his catalyst & captain LB Darius Leonard back to limit Tennessee's high-impact RB Derrick Henry (68 rushing yards last week). The Ravens output was a bit misleading since 7 of their 24 points came on a 10-point swing fumble return for as TD early on. The Indy "D" held Lamar Jackson & the Ravens' offense to 266 total yards after they put up 457 on Pittsburgh's 6th-ranked "D" the week before. Let's crunch some numbers! The Titans (if favored) are a ticket-ripping 3-12 ATS coming off a win of 7 or more. Let's get analytical looking @ both QB's. Ryan Tannehill is 14-18 ATS (44%) as a home favorite, 15-20 ATS (43%) versus divisional foes & 5-8 ATS (38%) in non-Sunday games. It's been quite different on the other side with Philip Rivers being 65-53 ATS (55%) on the road, 52-41 ATS (56%) as an underdog, 42-27 ATS (61%) as a ROAD underdog & 20-15 ATS (57%) in non-Sunday games. Key factor: Reports show the Blue & White get key playmaker & WR T.Y. Hilton back for this game. Digging it in a little deeper, Indy has gone a solid 10-5-1 ATS versus the Titans the past 8 seasons. The final daggers for us have to be the Colts being a lights-out 10-2 ATS their last 12 Thursday roadies AND a take-me-to-the-window 9-1 versus the number IF a dog immediately off scoring 14 or less. Let's get more than pumped & ready as we go to the grass of Nissan Stadium in Nashville to play the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (buying to a key + 3 1/2) as well as a sprinkle on the ML as my 8* NFL Intra-Divisional Survivor Play! Monday, November 16, 2020 Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears (NFL) - 8:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-115 Chicago Bears Rating: 8* Mike's MNF Mushes Nightmare Play (LOSS) So the majority of mushes are BANKING on Minnesota RB Dalvin Cook to run rickshaw over the Bears to a lopsided win. The line certainly reflects that as it going in the direction of the Purple People Eaters as some books opened @ Chicago -2. Before we hand the Vikings their 3rd divisional win in a row, let's take in some very important sharp points. Everyone is very concerned about the offensive output of QB Nick Foles & Chicago. Keep in mind that Minnesota's defense ranks 29th (out of 32) & 24th in yards per point in the NFL. What tough defenses have the Bears faced thus far? In 4 of the last 6 games, not only did they come up against #4 Tampa Bay & #3 New Orleans, but they also locked up with #2 Los Angeles Rams & #1 Indianapolis. So they've met up with the 4 best total defense teams in the NFL & currently have a 5-4 SU record. The 3 defenses 3-5 SU Minnesota beat up on are #24 Detroit, #30 Houston & #11 Green Bay. They now meet DC Chuck Pagano & his Top 10 aggressive 3-4 alignment that's given Vikings' QB Kirk Cousins fits all 4 times new HC Matt Nagy faced him. At Soldier Field, Chicago beat them SU 16-6 last year & 25-20 in 18'& hold a 16-3 SU edge the last 19 @ this venue. Numbers don't lie as the Chicago "D" clogged up RB Derrick Henry & held the potent Tennessee offense to 228 total yards last week. My bottom line says we need to give Foles a break since his 10/7 TD/INT ratio was against cream of the crop defenses since Week 4 when he took over! Let's not forget that Minnesota has dropped 9 in a row versus the number on the Monday night road & Captain Kirk is also 0-9 ATS on MNF. Advanced analytics also point out that Cousins is a weak 20-29 SU when traveling, 15-21 SU versus divisional opponents, 19-27 SU coming off a SU win & 4-15 SU in Non-Sunday games. In contrast, Foles is 18-13 SU @ home & 9-8 SU versus divisional foes. The X-Factor we're looking for is the change HC Matt Nagy made by giving the play-calling chores over to 17th-year vet & OC Bill Lazor. Now here's the dagger! These same Monsters Of The Midway are a near-perfect 17-1-1 ATS as a home underdog off SU consecutive losses AND face an opponent off a SU win. Chicago fits like a glove here since they ALSO the play in using my decades long 60-90 road exhaustion theory (which says to go AGAINST the Vikings). Remember, the last time these 2 met say Dalvin cook rush for 35 yards. We're rolling down to Museum Campus Drive's Soldier Field to play the CHICAGO BEARS (buying to our number @ + 4 1/2) as my 8* MNF Mushes Nightmare Play! Sunday, November 15, 2020 Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -130 Los Angeles Rams Rating: 9* Mike's West Coast Battle For Supremacy-Strongest Play (WIN) I've put this game through the old washing machine a half dozen times & still come out with the Rams. The last 2 seasons @ this venue have produced a 36-31 L.A. win 18' & a convincing 28-12 Rams' win last season. Yes, Seattle is 6-2 SU & currently in first place in the NFC West Division. Upon further examination, ALL 6 of those wins came against losing teams. Having said that, NOW add in that the Seahawks still ranked dead last (32nd) in total defense as well as passing defense. Their 2,897 defensive passing yards are the WORST in the Super Bowl era. Even though BOTH of these offenses rank in the Top 5 (L.A. 5th, Seattle 3rd), the Lambs rank 2nd in total defense AND 2nd in pass defense. DC Brandon Staley's 3-4 alignment is built to stop the pass with DT Aaron Donald (9 sacks) constant pressure on opposing QB's & CB Jalen Ramsey being a true lock-downer who will have the assignment of going one-on-one with WR D.J. Metcalf. Last week, the Seahawks "O" went up against Buffalo (19th in scoring "D") on the road & were down 17 before garbage time. HC Pete Carroll (who gave up a career-high 44 points LW) better score fast since L.A.'s "D" is giving up UNDER 3 PPG in the 2nd half all year. I LOVE the situational edge clearly in LA's favor. The Seahawks are coming off an east coast game while the Rams & their offensive guru HC Sean McVay (40-20 SU overall) have had 2 weeks to prepare for this one. The mushes point out the Rams' loss to Miami in their last game. If you REALLY look closely @ that game, L.A. out-gained the Fish 471-145! My bottom line points out some key analytics. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is 21-21 SU as an underdog, 20-19 SU as an underdog of 7 or less AND a vanilla 15-17 SU as a road underdog. On the flip side of the coin, L.A. QB Jared Goff is 35-14 SU as a favorite, 24-12 SU as a favorite of 7 or less AND 17-8 SU as a home favorite. HC McVay with Goff starting is a not too shabby 40-19 SU entering this contest. On defense, look for OLB Leonard Floyd & ILB Micah Kiser to aid Aaron Donald as spies in containing Wilson in the pocket. Let's roll out to brand-spanking new So-Fi Stadium in Inglewood to play the LOS ANGELES RAMS for the "W" as my 9* West Coast Battle For Supremacy Play! Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders (NFL) - 4:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4/-110 Denver Broncos Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Jon Q. Public has no doubt fell in love with Las Vegas after 2 consecutive wins on the road. Kudos to HC Jon Gruden & staff. However, their "A" game thus far have been played away from home. We're letting the facts fall where they may as the Raiders are 1-2 SU @ their new stadium & have yielded 33 PPG in the process. When we look @ both of these defenses, Denver can be found in the upper half while Las Vegas is 23rd in total "D" & 26th versus the pass. They've built some momentum winning 3 of their last 5 games SU & now have a BIG situational edge over the Raiders since they are coming off a divisional 31-26 shootout win over the Chargers (LV was out-gained by 120 yards) AND have hated rival Kansas City (who they upset 40-32 in Week 5) on deck. I'm not sure how Las Vegas handles their rare role of home favorite (0-2 ATS the last 2 versus Cincinnati & Jacksonville) taking on a Broncos' squad that thrives as an underdog @ 10-5 ATS. My bottom line says Denver comes in the more desperate team @ 3-5 SU & must get the "W" to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. Let's crunch some numbers! HC Vic Fangio has been GOLD as a dog going 11-4 ATS versus everyone minus the Chiefs. The analytics don't lie as LV QB Derek Carr is a losing proposition with HC Jon Gruden going 16-24 SU. Carr is just 19-24 ATS @ home, 10-14 ATS as a favorite, 9-12 ATS as favorites of 7 or less & 5-9 ATS as a home favorite. Adding further daggers, Carr is just 15-22 SU versus his AFC West rivals & is a ticket-ripping 17-25 SU & 16-26 ATS when coming off a SU win. When we look @ Broncos' QB Drew Lock, it's a lot greener. In the short time he's started, he's showed some promise by going 3-2 ATS on the road, 6-3 ATS as an underdog, 5-2 ATS as an underdog of 7 or less & a profitable 3-2 SU versus divisional teams. Looking down @ adversity, Lock is a perfect 4-0 ATS if coming off a SU loss. With KC immediately on deck for Vegas @ home, I'll gladly go to a lack-of-12th-man Allegiant Stadium on Al Davis Way to play the DENVER BRONCOS (buying to + 6) as my 8* NFL Public Missed Perception Play! NOTES: The Rams' defense frustrated Seattle QB Russell Wilson as predicted .Shutdown Corner Jalen Ramsey held WR D.K. Metcalf to 2 catches for 28 yards & that told the story. Colts' HC Frank Reich (I bet Eagles' skipper Doug Pederson misses him as OC since the Birds have gone a failing 11-16 SU outside the NFC Least since he left Philly) received tremendous help from rookie WR Michael Pittman & 3rd-year RB Nyheim Hines. Pittman caught 7 passes for 101 yards & Hines scored twice while rushing for 70 & receiving for another 45 as Indy pounded Tennessee on the road. The other 2 games were head-scratchers? The Bears' HC Matt Nagy gave the play-calling over to Bill Lazor. The result was it sent Chicago's production backward as they couldn't muster 20 points to pull out the "W" with Nick Foles going down with an injury late. The most befuddling player of the week for us was Denver QB Drew Lock who was pitiful. It seemed like he regressed back to college as he seemed to forget key fundamentals. He repeatedly threw into heavy traffic, telegraphed throws, chose wrong options & missed wide open receivers. He wasted RB's Melvin Gordon & Philip Lindsay by turning it over 5 times (4 INT's). It would have been 6 if he didn't recover a fumble near the goal line. The mushes were due for a few so we'll take a 2-2 any off week & move on to the upcoming green. No play Thursday so I'll be back Sunday to start a new streak! Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 10 record: 2-2 for 50% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 19-8 for 70%
 


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