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Mike Handzelek's NFL Week 1 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 11, 2018
   
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Sunday, September 09, 2018 Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7.5/-109 Baltimore Ravens Rating: 7* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) Yes, this is the 2nd Harbaugh pick in consecutive weeks. Unlike younger brother Jim, I believe John gets his team fully prepared AND motivated. I can't see new DC Don Martindale (former LB coach) not eating up either Nathan Peterman or 1st-rounder Josh Allen as in the survivor QB by quarter 4. Martindale will be dialing up pressure often inside his base 3-4 defensive scheme & will exploit Buffalo's matchup problems against DT Brandon Williams, MLB D.J. Mosley & RUSHBACK Terrell Suggs. The Ravens come being the 6th-ranked scoring "D" from last season. Yes, the Bills will give the rock to LeSean McCoy as much as possible. However, their offensive line (lost 3 starters from last year) is adequate @ best. Remember, Buffalo ranked 29th out of 32 WITH them last season. I'm not sure when Buffalo SEES the playoffs again (9-7 last year), but their lack of key personnel & and enough playmakers will keep them way under the .500 mark. My bottom line points @ motivation. That motivation will certainly come from its "under the gun" mentor John Harbaugh whose now missed the playoffs for 3 consecutive seasons coming in. I look for RB Alex Collins to "have a day" since Baltimore has enough dynamic receivers with Crabtree, Brown & Snead. Our dagger has to be the Black Birds being a very solid 5-1 SU & ATS in their last 6 home openers. The excitement of Lamar Jackson being a breath of fresh air IF Flacco disappoints provides an added insurance that Inner Harbor will be a place for fireworks. All you have to do is ask OC Marty Mornhinweg off the record for the real take. Let's go to M&T Bank Stadium to play the BALTIMORE RAVENS (shave the points down to -5 1/2) as my 7* NFL Earlybird Dependable! NOTE: Review my article each week for our accurate updated record since the VTD scoring system does not account for buy points. San Francisco 49ers vs. Minnesota Vikings (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -235 Minnesota Vikings Rating: 8* Mike's Super Solid Opening Week Chalker (WIN) The Vikings were more than disappointed after missing a home game for the Super bowl by 1 game. Now HC Mike Zimmer has his crew back (including a pivotal RB in Dalvin Cook) to take on another non-divisional opponent. In these out of division showdowns, Zimmer has had his way coming into this one with a stellar 18-3-1 SU record. Yes, 49ers' QB Jimmy Garoppolo is undefeated (7-0 SU overall & 5-0 SU with SF) coming into this fracas. However, he was dealt a BIG loss when he lost starting RB Jerick McKinnon to a torn ACL. There's no denying DEFENSE wins games more often than not. Look for DC George Edwards 4-3 defensive scheme (ranked 1st in both yards allowed & scoring "D") use the home crowd to his advantage when dialing up pressure on Garoppolo after taking away SF's running game. New Purple People Eaters' QB Kirk Cousins (came over from Washington) is worth his 3-year $84 million in gold as he'll prove after settling in. Even though the Vikes lost G Nick Eason for the year & have C Pat Elflein banged up, expect Cousins to add up yardage using receivers, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph & hitting Dalvin Cook out of the backfield. Now let's seriously crunch some numbers! Our ML play warrants a higher percentage than these ATS numbers. Besides HC Mike Zimmer being 59-29 ATS overall as a HC (67%), he's also 14-1 ATS as non-divisional favorites. In their last 27 regular season games under Zim, Minnesota has gone a lights-out 20-6-1 ATS. My bottom line points out the Vikings 12-2 SU their past 14, holding 11 of their last 16 opponents UNDER 18 points & yielding a super-stingy 12.5 PPG @ home last season are CLEAR advantages that should leave Cousins salivating! My X-Factor here is Kirk Cousins instead of Jimmy G. He FINALLY has enough weapons around him to utilize. Let's go to a loud 66,000 fans plus of U.S. Bank Stadium to play the MINNESOTA VIKINGS as my 8* Super Solid Opening Week Chalker! Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-108 Houston Texans Rating: 7* Mike's Barking Out Loud Hakuna Mutata Play (WIN off the buy) There's not too much key things to say on this game except the main fact that HC Bill "Hakuna Mutata" Belichick is a clear experimenter in September. Why do I say that? Well, consistency of winning percentages dictates it! In the month of September, Ole' Grungy Bill's win percentages drops a whopping 17%, that's right 17% compared to the winnings in December. If that doesn't clearly dictate a search for the proper chemistry, I don't know what does. Not only does Tom Brady get DLE J.J. Watt, S Tyrann Mathieu, OLB Jadeveon Clowney, WR DeAndre Hopkins, QB DeShaun Watson & Asst. HC/DC Romeo Crennel this week, they have an immediate trip to Jacksonville on deck to take on the team they rallied to beat in the AFC Championship. Revenge will be king here as Houston got edged last year 36-33 @ this venue in Watson's 2nd career start. My bottom line points @ the numbers. The Texans are a very solid 6-3 ATS in road openers. New England is just 1-4-1 ATS in their past 6 home openers. Remember, KC ran up 42 on the Pats last season. It's gonna be tough on Brady without Cooks & Our dagger here has to be the ATS record of Super Bowl losers in season-opening games. Are you ready? Try a staggering 2-15 versus the number including a horrible 6-11 SU in that category since 2001. Here's our number where we'll be playing forcing almost a double-win for us to go down. Let's go to Foxborough's Gillette Stadium to play the HOUSTON TEXANS (buying to + to 7 1/2) as my Barking Out Loud Hakuna Mutata Play! NOTES: Don't think for 1 second that NFL's Week 1 was easy! If it was so easy, tell that to the New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, Green Bay Packers & Detroit Lions. Of the 4, the Pack looked far from back as Chicago dominated them 20-0 before that infamous prevent "D" allowed a hobbling Aaron Rodgers to steal the victory 24-23 in the end (the 2nd largest comeback in Lambeau Field history). Hopefully McCarthy keeps him sidelined this week since Minnesota's "D" broke his collarbone last year. Well, it was nice to once again BANG another NFL Earlybird with BLOWOUT accuracy on the Ravens. This season, Joe Flacco knows he's being pushed. Expect better results since talent is eagerly awaiting behind him. I also think the Vikings can win the ole "Black N' Blue" Division IF Kirk Cousins can live up to his projections (as he grasps new OC John DeFilippo's system who took over when Pat Shurmur left) AND the Minnesota "D" plays Mike Zimmer's tricky 4-3 'over' that includes very aggressive double-A gap blitz packages to a tee. On a closing note, NOW you know WHY we buy points close to key numbers. We buy 1 point with the Texans to + 7 1/2 over New England. What happens? They lose by 7 turning us into having a perfect day & weekend (5-0) instead of losing to the hook @ + 6 1/2. REMINDER: Read these articles for accurate records since the VTD scoring system does NOT take into account buy points which lowers winning percentages dramatically by seasons end. Expect 2-4 NFL plays next week since we're still gauging new personnel & veterans coming off lengthy injuries. Here's our accurate record. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Week 1 & Overall Season Record: 3-0 for 100% Mike Handzelek's Overall Record All Sports Last 20 Plays: 18-2 for a surreal 90%!!! Mike Handzelek's Current 2018 MLB Record: 12-4 for 75% Thanks to all that follow & believe we can dominate with selective discipline.
 


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