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Mike Handzelek's NFL Game Of The Year Tricky Week 17 Analysis/Review/Notes/Look-Ahead


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Dec 31, 2018
   
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Sunday, December 30, 2018 Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -135 Atlanta Falcons Rating: 9* Mike's NFL Earlybird Dependable (WIN) Make no mistake that Dirty Birds' QB Matt Ryan has owned the Buccaneers of late winning 4 straight. Bucs' QB Jameis Winston's 15/12 TD/INT ratio fails on comparison to Ryan who chimes in with a nifty 33/6 (4th in the NFL in TD passes thrown behind Mahomes, Luck & Wilson) in that same category. Not having WR DeSean Jackson makes it easier to key on WR Mike Evans for the Falcons' 4-3 scheme. How bad did the Atlanta defense missed MLB Deion Jones? Jones in his 2nd week off injury led the team in tackles with 14 in their 24-10 win @ Carolina last Sunday. Jones & Co. will be hungry for turnovers having to go up against an offense ranked 31st of 32 teams in giveaways with a -20. Since Jones came back from injury, the Falcons have given up a stingy 12 PPG. My bottom line says NUMBERS don't lie! Not only is Atlanta 11-4 SU & ATS on the road with Ryan against SU losing teams in December, Tampa Bay (off a road game) has lost 11 of their last 12 ATS when matched up with a squad ALSO off a roadie. When looking @ the road weary theory (facing a team in their 2nd of 2 consecutive away games), the Buco's are the biggest bust around ATS @ home versus these teams going an Antarctic 3-21 versus the number. Here's the daggers! There is no saving TB HC Dirk Koetter's job today knowing Atlanta being a solid 12-2 versus the number their last 14 Last Road Games but a more-important 7-0 against the points if they're facing a team with a SU losing record. Let's build on this one leading up to our NFL Regular Season Game Of The Year by grabbing the ATLANTA FALCONS as the NFL Earlybird Dependable Play @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa! Chicago Bears vs. Minnesota Vikings (NFL) - 4:25 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.0/-105 Chicago Bears Rating: 10* 10 Star (Old 12*) NFL Regular Season Game Of The Year (WIN) Even though Jon Q Public AND the mushes are all over Minny-ha-ha (& we're glad they did), what has Vikings' QB "Captain" Kirk Cousins (9 fumbles-7 lost) shown us in prime-time against winning (SU) opponents? The answer is close to a flat zero! Since their bye week, the Purple People Eaters have gone a perfect 0-4 SU ( Cousins 9-19-1 SU all-time) with no covers losing 30-20 hosting the Saints, losing @ Chicago 25-20, losing @ New England 24-10 & losing @ Seattle 21-7. Is there an excuse for Chicago's 3rd-ranked scoring defense (2nd versus the run) NOT to force a few more turnovers fr om Cousins & Co.? I sayeth not! They lead the NFL in defensive takeaways with 36! In recent past Week 17's, teams under fire have NOT showed up BIG ATS as some have also lost SU. The Monsters From The Midway have only lost once in the past 9 weeks, a 3-point OT loss @ the New York Giants. In the all-important turnover category, Da Bears hold a gigantic +14 to zero turnover ratio edge over today's opponent. Before we get the pick & number, keep in mind Chicago has NEVER been beat by over 7 this season. What ALSO plays into this is interim OC Kevin Stefanski being dedicated to a run-oriented attack. Remember, this Bears' 3-4 scheme under the direction of DC Vic Fangio gave Cousins fits getting 2 INT's including 1 pick-6 in their 1st meeting. His 76.5 QBR in that game is a considerable drop from his 100.9 current QBR. Note the Purple & Gold offensive line have not performed well overall as Cousins has been sacked 36 times. Ok, let's start to crunch some pretty decent numbers. When you check out that OTHER QB in Mitchell Trubisky, he's a perfect 4-0 ATS in divisional games this year & has responded well in the dog role of 7 or less going a window-cashing 6-2-1 ATS. This rendition in Chicago cannot be compared to past squads who have struggled @ this venue because of unlike chemistries. The Vikes' swarming "D" has also struggled versus mobile QB's like Trubisky. Key personnel & RCB Xavier Rhodes is nursing a groin injury & should open up some intermediate passing lanes before the pressure arrives for Trubisky. My bottom line says being motivated to hopefully get a 1st-round bye (if the Rams lose) with a win versus a team that's as tight as a drum is conducive to getting our "W". The dagger for us has to be Cousins being ranked 1st (entering last week) in committing the most turnovers (17) of all NFL QB's. Get ready! Let's stomp up to U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis to play the CHICAGO BEARS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my 10 Star (Old 12 *) NFL Regular Season Game Of The Year! NOTES: Week 17 worked like a charm as the Bears delivered for us as the Regular Season NFL Play Of The Year winning outright getting +7 1/2. They played winning formula football. They out-sacked Minny 4-0. They out-rushed them 169-103 with Jordan Howard getting the bulk of it with 109. They controlled possession time 37:08 to 22:52. I believe their X-Factor was RB/KO & PR Tarik Cohen this week & will be again next week for the Wild Card game with Philadelphia. The Falcons' game went our way but I was surprised @ how well Jameis Winston played without DeSean Jackson. It didn't matter as Ryan & Co. also played winning formula football on the offensive end. They rushed the ball at least 30 times for over 100 yards while holding their opponent under 100. They dominated time of possession with a 34:46 to 25:14 advantage. Ryan was consistent passing for 380 yards & running gadget plays like the Philly Special scoring on a 5-yd TD pass from Mohamed Sanu. LOOK-AHEADS: As we look ahead to the playoffs, we'll have many games exploiting weaknesses as we have a slew of young QB's in their 3rd year or less (Dak Prescott, Mitch Trubisky, Pat Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff & Deshaun Watson) versus a crop of 7-year or better playoff-experienced veterans (Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Russell Wilson, Philip Rivers & Nick Foles). Thanks to all loyal subscribers & followers for believing in the plan that's been highly successful this season. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Record: 29-14-1 for 67% (1st in Winning Percentage Among 29 Pro Cappers @ VegasTopDogs.com)
 


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