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Mike Handzelek's NFL Divisional Round Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Jan 16, 2019
   
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Sunday, January 13, 2019 Los Angeles Chargers vs. New England Patriots (NFL) - 1:05 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -190 New England Patriots Rating: 10* Mike's NFL Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) There's been major money rolling in from Jon Q Public AND the mushes all this week since they're 8-1 SU on the road to date. However, where's the really important streaks here? The 1st of many to mention has to be the Patriots going for their 8th straight appearance in the AFC Championship. The next one has to be LA Chargers' QB Philip Rivers being a perfect 0-7 SU in head-to-head meetings with Tom Brady lifetime. Is there more? Yes! The Tea Men have been excellent 7-0 SU off a win & playing a team facing their 3rd consecutive road won. This New England team haven't been slouches @ home this season either. Besides winning 7 in a row @ home entering the season, they went an additional perfect 8-0 SU @ Foxborough & won them by an average margin of 16! So how do things in the offensive trenches? The Chargers have gained 1,873 yards on the ground @ 4.7 YPC, rushed for 16 TD's & have seen Rivers sacked 34 times. In contrast, the home-standing Patriots have 2,037 rushing yards @ 4.3 YPC, galloped for 18 TD's & have watched Brady being sacked just 21 times. Through the air, both QB's have similar numbers with over 4,300 passing yards to their credit. Today's key matchups that should determine the outcome are how effective CB Stephen Gilmore can neutralize WR Keenan Allen AND how QB Tom Brady can exploit rookie S Derwin James in the secondary. My bottom line stresses that it won't be easy for Los Angeles to make back-to-back 1PM starts especially in 20-degree temperatures. They benefited from good weather & a rookie QB that's team went -2 in TO difference last week in Baltimore. The X-Factor here should be HC Bill Belichick taking to school 2nd-year man Anthony Lynn. For those who care about things ATS, it's comforting knowing that the pointspread has mattered just 15 of the last 64 Divisionals since 2002. There's a matter of how good NE has performed after a playoff bye week that MUST be taken into account. In that particular role, they have gone 6-0 SU their past 6 with an average winning margin of 14. Let's look @ the coup de grace for LA. Going back 20 seasons, there's been 11 times when Tom Brady & Co. have been less than a 6-point playoff favorite. In those 11 instances, he's produced a near-flawless 10-0-1 ATS record! Despite Brady losing 3 playoff home games, he's still won 22 of them. Let's look @ 1 very strong SU trend overwhelmingly in our favor. It takes a close look @ teams coming out with a SU dog win during Wild Card weekend. The last 56 times this has happened, we've seen a hefty 45 return trips to the window for winning SU tickets! I the combination of home field, experience & weather will do in a talented Chargers' team in the end. Let's get psyched up as we go to Gillette Stadium in Foxborough to play 10*s on the NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS as my NFL Public Missed Perception Play! Saturday, January 12, 2019 Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 4:35 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5/-113 Indianapolis Colts Rating: 8* Mike's NFL Playoff Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) Don't worry about the public here since I believe they're on the right side. There are many indications that the line is STILL out of whack. However, we play NUMBERS not blindly taking TEAMS! Indianapolis has a 14-2 ITS (In The Stats) record this season that's #1 in the NFL. They've clearly been the under-achievers AND peaking @ the right time club. Looking @ the flip side, Kansas City (even though being 1 of 9 teams scoring 540+ points in a season all-time) was just 8-8 ITS but finished 12-4 SU thanks to an excellent +9 turnover differential. So how did 3 of these teams a high TO differential fared thus far? Well, 2 playoff teams that both had a +15 TO differential (tied for 1st in the NFL) AND had identical 8-8 ITS records LOST last week. Those teams were the Seattle Seahawks & the Houston Texans. The other team, the Chicago Bears had a + 12 TO but strong 12-4 ITS numbers lost also to Philadelphia. We should know since we were on the Chicago side (they out-gained the Eagles on the ground, in the air & had a 2-0 turnover edge) but took a "L" anyway after Parkey's double-clanger FG MISS in the waning moments. For this one, KC still has a young & brilliant QB in Pat Mahomes (5,097 passing yards, 66% completions, 50/12 TD/INT ratio, sacked 26 times & good for an AFC-best 113.8 QBR) but doesn't have their leading RB in the suspended Kareem Hunt (824 rushing yards & 7 TD's, 378 receiving yards & 7 more TD's). That's major production NOT in the lineup. My bottom line says there is a BIG question that MUST be answered for this one? Can HC Frank Reich provide the winning blueprints (for us ATS) for QB Andrew Luck (2-0 SU & ATS @ Arrowhead lifetime & currently 10-1 SU since October) to provide a balanced attack since the Chiefs' secondary has improved with the play of S Jordan Lucas & CB Charvarius Ward? The answer is "yes" since Indy's been getting excellent play from RB Marlon Mack (908 rushing yards, 4.7 YPC & 9 rushing TD's). KC has been a 2nd home for Indianapolis since 1996. They've gone 7-1 SU & ATS since that time. Hard to be ignored is Kansas City's 1-11 SU record (0-8 ATS @ home) in their last 12 post-season tussles. In addition, #1 AFC seeds since 1990 have gone just 11-16-1 ATS. The anti-X Factor here is Chiefs' HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid. He's lost 2 divisional round playoff games to the Patriots & Steelers while ALSO taking one on the chin when the Colts pulled off that miraculous comeback against him in the 2013 Wild Card Round. Reid has NOT won a home playoff game since taking over in 13'. Numbers clearly show that DC Matt Eberflus has his defense humming giving up slightly over 15 PPG over their last 11 games. It's time! Look for that incredible underdog playoff run to now go 15-1 ATS as we'll gladly go to beautiful Arrowhead Stadium to play the INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my NFL Playoff Earlybird Dependable! Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Record: 31-16 for 66% (Ranked #1 @ VegasTopDogs.Com) in Winning Pct. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 NFL Overall Record Since December 2nd: 10-3 for 77%
 


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