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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 7 Analysis/Review/Notes/Look-Aheads


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 17, 2018
   
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Saturday, October 13, 2018 Toledo vs. Eastern Michigan (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -135 Toledo Rating: 6* Mike's Saturday CFB Earlybird (LOSS) HC Jason Candle's is now in his 3rd season (lost to Appalachian State 2 consecutive years in a bowl since coming here) & has been pretty much successful going 24-9 SU to date. Candle ended Toledo's 13-year MAC drought by beating Akron for the MAC championship last season by a 45-28 count.Their only 2 losses (3-2 SU) have come against 2 quality opponents @ home versus Miami (Fla) & on the west coast versus Fresno State. Their offense is starting to click as witnessed last week when they won the "Battle of I-75" versus Bowling Green in their Homecoming. The Rockets have more than owned this series by winning 11 straight & 17 of the last 18. Both schools are 50 miles apart & have built a little rivalry that will see them meet for the 42nd straight time on Saturday.This season, they have 3 dangerous WR's BACK in Diontae Johnson (74 receptions for 1,278 yards in 17'), leading receiver Jon'Vea Johnson (1,462 yards receiving in the last 2 seasons) & Cody Thompson (64 catches for 1,269 yards) whose a redshirt in his last season. RB Shakif Seymour returns in the backfield after a brilliant freshman season that saw him rush for 6.1 yards per rush, average 10.4 yards per reception & score 13 TD's. On the flip side of the coin we find HC Chris Creighton whose Eagles are a hard-luck 2-4 SU & riding a 4-game losing skein. My bottom line says the "Boys From Ypsilanti" have not surpassed 28 points in any game thus far & now take on a Toledo team gelling while averaging over 46 PPG. The Rockets have 2 QB's capable of moving the sticks in Mitchell Guadagni & Eli Peters. Let's roll to Rynearson Stadium in Ypsilanti to play the TOLEDO ROCKETS as my Saturday CFB Earlybird! Colorado vs. USC (NCAAF) - 10:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-108 Colorado Rating: 7* Mike's Saturday Night CFB Super System (LOSS) Even though HC Mike MacIntyre missed a bowl last season with a 5-7 team, he's built some serious momentum to start this campaign as the Buffaloes need 1 win the rest of the way to be bowl-eligible. They won't be aiming that low this season since starting 5-0 SU. Just 2 seasons ago saw this same Colorado squad take the PAC-12 South before bowing to Washington in the championship. To repeat that performance, this is the team (& Arizona on Nov. 2) they MUST beat to put them in the driver's seat. The Buffaloes have been getting outstanding play from QB Steven Montez (75% completions & a nifty 11/2 TD/INT ratio), WR Laviska Shenault ( a nation-leading 51 receptions along with 6 TD's) & Senior Tailback Travon McMillian (528 yards rushing & good for 6.3 YPC) These 3 have dominated on an offense which has tabulated into 38 PPG thus far. Just 2 season ago saw the "Boys From Boulder" put up a late surge to draw within 4 @ 21-17 only to see U.S.C. run out the last 4:49 to end up short. On the flip side, HC Clay Helton & his Trojans seem to be suffering from a void on offense set by the absence of Sam Darnold whose migrated to the New York Jets as well as WR Deontay Burnett (86 receptions for 1,114 yards). This season they're averaging under 25 PPG & are close to a losing record @ 3-2 SU (lost badly @ Stanford 17-3 & @ Texas 37-14) since they were very fortunate of edging Washington State 3 weeks ago 39-36 @ this venue. This year's rendition ranks 127th in the country in 4th quarter conversions (20%) & have only out-stated opponents by 14 YPG (compared to the Buffs 136 YPG)! My bottom line says the Trojans "D" isn't the same either as they've intercepted just 1 pass as we near the halfway point. Getting turnovers have ALWAYS been a trademark for success with all past teams. Here's the daggers for us (a system) that fits like a glove! Play ON any 5-0 SU CFB team ATS that's installed as a road dog of more than 3. The past 31 instances have shown consistent results as these clubs have cashed 84% of all window bets going 26-5 ATS! The last dagger shows these Buffs as being a perfect 7-0 ATS if playing with conference revenge. Let's go to Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum to play the COLORADO BUFFALOES (buying up to our number @ + 7 1/2) as my Saturday Night CFB Super System! NOTES: We'll it was one of those rare weeks for the mushes! I was disappointed in Toledo to start the day. The Rockets controlled the clock, ran 79 plays (compared to 61 for EMU) & had a 28-19 1st down edge. Despite those advantages, the Eagles still nipped them @ the buzzer 28-26. The nightcap saw much of the same with Colorado. The undefeated Buffaloes out 1st-downed, ran more plays (84-61!) & had a 3-1 turnover edge over the Trojans but somehow couldn't cover 7 & the hook as U.S.C. won 31-20. Some notes & look-aheads around the league reveals Navy switching QB's to Garret Lewis while moving 1st-stringer Malcolm Perry to Slotback. Even though Temple played without their best RB in Ryquell Armstead, they had enough to sneak past the Midshipmen 24-17. It was amazing how Michigan State (missing 6 starters then WR's Felton Davis & Laress Nelson went down with injuries) still managed to edge Penn State 21-17 @ Happy Valley. After the once amazing QB Khalil Tate of Arizona went down to an ankle injury early, Rhett Rodriguez (ex-HC Rich Rodriguez's son) came in & passed for 226 yards & a 1/0 TD/INT ratio. The Wildcats couldn't get the running game going (31 rushes for 72 yards) & got blown out 42-10 by the Utes. Some key games that have possible 4-team playoff implications are: Michigan @ Michigan State, Alabama @ Tennessee, Oklahoma @ T.C.U., North Carolina State @ Clemson, Ohio State @ Purdue & Mississippi State @ L.S.U.. Look for a sharps kind of week after the mushes had their limited fun in CFB's Week #7. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Overall Regular Season Record: 10-8 for an above water 56%.
 


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