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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 7 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 16, 2019
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Saturday, October 12, 2019 Washington State vs. Arizona State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 1/-113 Washington State Rating: 9* Mike's CFB 9* Barking Out Loud Dogger (LOSS) Washington State's HC Mike Leach ridiculed his team after a horrible performance last game. DC Tracy Claeys quit in the middle of their bye week. Looks this one is an ASU cakewalk right? I feel just the opposite. Wazzou is STILL the #7 scoring offense in the land @ 44.8 PPG. I feel the Sun Devils as favorite are "Fat Cats" coming in off their road upset of Cal last game. We can't ignore the Cougs 16-6 ATS record as road underdogs the past 6 seasons. Let's go to Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe to play the WASHINGTON STATE COUGARS as my CFB 9* Barking Out Loud Dogger (buying to + 3 1/2). Fresno State vs. Air Force (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-105 Fresno State Rating: 9* Mike's Saturday Night Bailout Play (LOSS) Fresno State is the right team here! Not only does FSU have double revenge (lost @ home in 16' by a 31-21 score & on the road in 15' getting walloped 42-14), but also catch Air Force directly off a Commander-in-Chief 34-25 loss in their battle @ Navy. Why is that so significant? Well, HC Jeff Tedford is off the bye & has had 2 big weeks to prepare for the option run by the Falcons. In addition, it seems the oddsmakers don't give Tedford & the Bulldogs much respect on the road as witnessed by their dominating 13-2-2 record versus the number since he came here 2 years ago. Remember, this team represents the best of the Mountain West after beating Boise State on the road in a 19-16 OT thriller in the conference championship last season. My bottom line says Air Force has to prove they can consistently rise to the occasion after these rivalry games. The past 9 seasons have shown otherwise as Falcons' backers have ripped up their tickets on 14 of 18 tries. Let's make way to Falcon Stadium in Colorado Springs to play the FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 9* Saturday Night Bailout Play! Mississippi State vs. Tennessee (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -6/-110 Mississippi State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) With Tennessee's so-called "Bowl Game" on deck with Alabama, I can't escape feeling look-ahead . I really don't mind if Mississippi State goes with true frosh QB Garrett Shrader if Tommy Stevens isn't up to par. The Bulldogs are fresh coming off their bye week against the Vols who left a lot on the field @ home versus Georgia. The sandwich speaks louder than words as we go to historic Neyland Stadium in Knoxville to play the MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS as my 8* CFB Earlybird Dependable! Penn State vs. Iowa (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-115 Iowa Rating: 10* Mike's CFB Strongest Play Of The Week (LOSS) The big thing I took from last week was the Iowa Hawkeyes played dreadful turning the ball over 4 times but still having a chance to win in the end @ Michigan! I feel Pittsburgh (who traveled to PSU earlier) is close to the physicality unleashed every week by HC Kirk Ferentz & his Hawkeyes. Even in that 10-3 loss to the Wolverines (with 4 TO's they should have lost by 21+), their 3rd-ranked scoring defense (9 PPG) & tied for 1st in Red Zone Defense held the Wolverines to 267 total yards. QB Nathan Stanley should be breathing fire after that sub-par game last week & ALSO comes in with double revenge since losing @ Penn State last year 30-24 & here @ Kinnick Stadium 21-19 in 17'. He's the better QB on the field tonight & only turned it over once minus last week. Let's start crunching some serious numbers. Iowa has come up BIG winning the past 4 of 5 after a SU loss. Digging thru Ferentz's early coaching archives, he's gone a window-cashing 14-6-1 (70%) when installed as a home dog the last 20 seasons. In addition, the Nittany Lions have put a dismal 11-18 record ATS in their last 29 TRUE road affairs. Going back to the Iowa loss last week, holding a team (Michigan) to 10 or less in a Hawkeyes SU & ATS loss has significant meaning. Why? Because Ferentz has been close to automatic going 49-2 SU & 43-6-2 ATS in this given situation. The dagger for us HAS to be Penn State looking more than a risky proposition when installed as a Big Ten road favorite under 14. The past 9 tries have seen Happy Valley's finest cover just 2! O'h yeah, we'll trek quickly to Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City to play the IOWA HAWKEYES (buying to + 4 1/2) & a sprinkle on the ML as my CFB 10 Star Strongest Play Of The Week! NOTES: It looked like a mediocre weekend after bad beats Fresno State & Mississippi State. What I wasn't expecting was Iowa & Washington State both getting edged by a 1/2-point. The Hawkeyes out-gained Penn State while holding them under 300 total yards. The desperate Cougars solved the ASU defense & put up 498 yards of offense. After the dust had cleared, turning in a 0-4 weekend was hard to swallow. Let's regroup as the season isn't 1/2 over. Mike Handzelek's 2019 Week 7 CFB Record: 0-4 for 0% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 Overall CFB Record: 10-12 for a disappointing 45%

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