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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 4 Analysis/Review/Key Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 25, 2019
   
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Saturday, September 21, 2019 Michigan vs. Wisconsin (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-105 Michigan Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) The knee-jerk reaction here is be all over HC Paul Chryst & Wisconsin since they've out-scored their opponents 110-0 (the first time a team scored 100 or more & allow none since the South Carolina Gamecocks did it in 1980). The 65% of the public thinks so. Upon further examination, how much weight can we give the Badgers' "D" since they only dismantled 2 very vanilla teams in South Florida & Central Michigan. Since Army gave these Wolverines all they can handle, line value screams toward our side. For this game, Michigan DC Don Brown has already devised a 4-3 alignment to contain talented RB Jonathan Taylor who rushed for 2,194 yards last season. Last season, they contained Taylor very well when the Maize & Blue came out on top 38-13. Wolves' QB Shea Patterson looks to be fully recovered from an oblique injury. He'll have a fresh & reliable RB Zach Charbonnet (rushed for 100 yards & 3 TD's versus Army) as well as WR Ronnie Bell (7 catches for 81 yards). Even though old tech's point out Michigan is 2-9-1 ATS the L12 & 0-5 ATS L5 @ Camp Randall, the new era under Jim Harbaugh has them 2-1 SU versus Wisconsin (the lone loss coming in 17' when the Badgers were #5 in the nation). My bottom line says 2 weeks to prepare & a very serious 12-1 SU record in their last 13 Big Ten openers has us grabbing Big Blue & the points. Let's trek to a noisy Camp Randall Stadium in Madison to play the more desperate MICHIGAN WOLVERINES as my 8* CFB Missed Perception Play! Southern Mississippi vs. Alabama (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 38.5/-110 Southern Mississippi Rating: 8* CFB Inflated Line Play Of The Week (LOSS on Late Cover) With Alabama in a SEC sandwich with Ole Miss immediately on deck, I'm not looking for Hawaiian-born QB Tua Tagovailoa to throw for 444 more passing yards like he did in last week's 47-23 win over South Carolina. HC Nick Saban knows the game plan & he knows the major importance of keeping the fresh WR corps of Jerry Jeudy (2nd all-time TD passes with 20 for the Crimson Tide), Henry Ruggs III (3rd all-time with 19) & DeVonta Smith (18 catches for 237 receiving yards & 3 TD's this season) in 100% speedster mode. This is still a numbers game for this early start @ Bama'. The past 9 seasons clearly show that the Crimson Tide have NOT taken the BIG favorite role seriously. In the 23 times they were favored by 35 points or more, they've covered just 6 times for a whopping 26% covers. Southern Miss has shown up BIG as a dog in this situation. Let's make way to Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa to play HC Jay Hopson & his SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI GOLDEN EAGLES (buying to +40) as my CFB Inflated Line Play Of The Week! Appalachian State vs. North Carolina (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/100 Appalachian State Rating: 9* My 9* CFB Barking Out Loud Dogger (WIN) I feel Mack Brown's kids are turning into the cardiac kids as they've went down to the wire 3 weeks straight beating South Carolina & Miami of Florida 24-20 & 28-25 in successive weeks before losing 24-18 @ Wake Forest last week. This gives us a great situational edge since intra-state rival Appalachian State comes into this one fresh off the bye. This Sun Belt Conference champ doesn't back down from the big boys since their last Power 5 game ended in a 45-38 OT loss @ Penn State last season. Their 2 statement games this year happened to be this week AND a November 9th game @ South Carolina. HC Eliah Drinkwitz & the Mountaineers are 17-2 SU their past 19 & have a powerful offense returning (10 of 11 starters). My bottom line says Mack Brown & Co. can't stop but seeing national champ Clemson immediately on deck for a showdown next week in Chapel Hill. Remember, a similar opponent in Syracuse got pounded by Maryland the week before Clemson invaded the Carrier Dome. I'm eager to head Kenan Memorial Stadium in Chapel Hill to play the APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS (buying to + 3 1/2) & a little on the ML as my 9* CFB Barking OUT Loud Dogger! Louisville vs. Florida State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -250 Florida State Rating: 9* Mike's 9* CFB Headliner Moneyliner (WIN) Let's start off by saying FSU hasn't played all cream puffs on their way to a 1-2 SU record. Sure, the alumni are probably eager to remove 2nd -year HC Willie Taggert after going 6-8 SU in his first 14 games. But losing to 3-0 Boise State in the opener & to a very tough Virginia team by a TD last week doesn't mean pushing the panic button is a given. QB James Blackman has a respectable 9/2 TD/INT ratio & now goes DOWN in class up against 2-1 Louisville (beat Eastern Kentucky & Western Kentucky) under the direction of HC Scott Satterfield who came over from App. State. I'm highly doubting if Jawon "Puma" Pass can come close to filling one shoe left by All-American Lamar Jackson just 2 seasons ago. With Taggert under the hot seat, I expect FSU to respond in their 2-game home stand against Louisville & North Carolina State in the upcoming weeks. Let's go to Doak S. Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee to play the FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES as my 9* CFB Headliner Moneyliner! Kentucky vs. Mississippi State (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -6/-110 Mississippi State Rating: 7* Mike's CFB SEC Game Of The Week (WIN) As far as I'm concerned, this game has been circled by the Bulldogs after getting embarrassed 28-7 & Kroger Field in Lexington last season. I look for HC Joe Moorhead to have 5th-year QB Tommy Stevens back in the lineup after going out in that stunning 31-24 home loss to Kansas State last week. Unproven Kentucky QB Sawyer Smith makes his first road start (after starting the season with 3 consecutive home games) & is fresh off a disappointing 29-21 loss to Florida last week where he threw 3 INT's & lost a fumble. My bottom line says Mississippi State RB Kylin Hill is the best playmaker on the field & leads the SEC in rushing with 431 yards. It's also nice to know that backup QB Garrett Shrader looked solid in relief of Stevens in case he re-injures his shoulder. In revenge mode, look for the MSU defense to contain RB Kavosiey Smoke & wear down the cats' in the end. We're making our way to Davis Wade Stadium in Starkville to hop all over the MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS as my 7* CFB SEC Game Of The Week! Michigan State vs. Northwestern (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -9/-105 Michigan State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (WIN) The score didn't reflect how dominant Michigan State was last week. But this week, they play a VERY familiar Northwestern team that started slow last season with 2 opening home losses to Duke & Akron in September. I feel Dantonio passing Duffy Daugherty on the all-time most coaching wins @ MSU list will be delayed 1 week after that 2nd-chance missed FG tragedy last week versus Arizona State. The Spartans have shown up with a very stingy "D" 3 times while Pat Fitzgerald's bunch have struggled on the offensive end. Numbers point out that this is clearly a visitors' series with 10 out of the last 12 SU wins by the roadie. My bottom line says this is a BIG revenge game for Michigan State after NW shocked them 29-19 in East Lansing during homecoming weekend last year. Obvious historical trends all look the Wildcats' way. We won't be buying in as we love MSU QB Brian Lewerke over an unproven NW QB Hunter Johnson. Let's use on heads as we go to Ryan Field in Evanston to play the MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS as my 8* CFB Earlybird Dependable! NOTES: Thought we'd end the week 5-1 but had to settle for a still successful 4-2 after Nick Saban runs up the score with a TD under the 2-minute warning with a 5 TD lead? It was super nice to hit Appalachian State ATS & as a ML dog. Our other 3 wins were all by double-digits. There's no doubt that the highlight of the weekend in CFB HAD to be the U.C.L.A. @ Washington State game. With 4 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, the Cougars held a commanding 49-17 lead. WE thought so. But HC Chip Kelly saw the other end of the rainbow. In the next 4 minutes & 20 seconds, Bruins' QB Dorian Thompson Robinson ran for 1 & threw for another 3 TD's that drew his team within 49-46 after a 2-point PAT. Cougars' QB Anthony Gordon was still the man of the hour after throwing his school & PAC-12 record 9th TD pass of the game when he hit RB Max Borghi on a 65-yd pass giving Wazzou a 63-60 lead. As the clocked still had just over a minute to play, Dorian-Robinson brought the Bruins all the way back on a 15-yard TD strike to SlotBack Demetric Felton that ended the scoring @ 67-63. Gordon ended the night going 41-for-61 for a whopping 570 yards (WSU had 6 turnovers) running HC Mike Leach's "Air Raid" offense that usually includes a 4 WR set. The 130 total points set a new PAC-12 record breaking the old one set by Washington State & Cal (60-59 Cal) when the winning QB was none other than Jared Goff (current QB with the L.A. Rams). I felt good about the deepest card to date (6 games) as we put our record into a decent percentage. Thanks to all of my loyal followers who see the WHOLE season without skepticism. We'll ride the wave in Week 5 on Saturday! Mike Handzelek's 2019 CFB Week 4 Record: 4-2 for 67% Mike Handzelek's CFB 2019-20 Overall Record: 8-6 for 57%
 


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