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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 2 Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 8, 2019
   
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Saturday, September 07, 2019 Army vs. Michigan (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 22.5/-109 Army Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable/Strongest Play (WIN) Until Michigan proves to me they can play a little less sloppy (fumbled on the first play of the game which Middle Tennessee State converted into a TD), they are not worthy of laying more than 3 TD's against a reputable triple-option team. No, I'm not expecting this to be last year's repeat of that 28-21 OT thrilling loss by Army in Norman Oklahoma. However, having both of these defenses return just 4 & 5 starters defensively tells me the offenses can't be that far apart. Don't be fooled by the score last Friday night. The Black Knights looked purposely VANILLA in their basic game plan 14-7 win over Rice. Now, expect HC Jeff Monken's troops (11-2 last season) to be juiced up for the 100,000+ fans @ Ann Arbor & play to their capabilities. The Wolverines also have 3 starters (NT Donovan Jeter, WR Donovan Peoples-Jones & LT Jon Runyon) up in the air for this one. Even though the depth is clearly on the home side with bluebloods of the Maize & Blue, there's other factors to consider when taking a side here. For instance, the Wolves have a new OC in Josh Gattis. Gattis is bringing a "Pro spread no-huddle" type offense for QB Shea Patterson to run. Expect a good month for his offense to fully grasp it which may or may not be in time for a pivotal Big Ten clash @ Camp Randall Stadium against Wisconsin in 2 weeks. So I'm still expecting some mental mistakes that further aids our cause. Finally, let's crunch some serious numbers. It's a known fact that HC Jim Harbaugh isn't so hot when laying 20+ points. He's covered just 35% of the time (7-13 career) doing so. This goes nicely as military underdogs of 20 or more who come off of an ATS loss cover @ a rate of 75% the past 37 seasons. Let's climb above the 50% mark as we go to Michigan Stadium to play the ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS (buying to +24 1/2) as my 8* CFB Earlybird Dependable! Arkansas vs. Mississippi (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-105 Arkansas Rating: 7* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) The mushes are all over Ole Miss since Arkansas is 0-8 in SEC openers with an average loss by over 20 points. They'll be no over-reacting here after Arkansas slipped past Portland State 20-13 in a game where they were complacent enough to run the ball 42 times for 204 yards. you see, there's a little bit of unfinished business on the part of these Hogs. They were close to beating these same Rebs with a lead after three but only to watch it evaporate late in a 37-33 loss. Even though we won with loss Ole Miss taking an all-important + 7 1/2 last weekend, we're going the other way here. Why? Because it looked like the Rich Rodriguez offensive system needs much more time to gel laying over a TD. It looks like graduation hit harder than we thought with Mississippi returning just 3 on offense while also breaking a redshirt freshman QB in Matt Corral. There are very similar things happening with HC Chad Morris (2nd year with the Hogs) as his greenhorns need breaking in as well. However, let's NOT forget the recent history where Arkansas has beaten Ole Miss 4 of the last 5. More importantly, the last 4 scores of this series were super close with finals of 53-52, 34-30, 38-37 & 37-33. My bottom line says we'd rather have a seasoned senior QB in Ben Hicks in a nailbiter than to take a freshman whose offense generated 173 total yards on 53 plays. With knowing Ole Miss is being over-valued covering just 8 out of their last 30 ATS, let's gladly go to the natural turf of Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford to play the ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS as my 7* CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Minnesota vs. Fresno State (NCAAF) - 10:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-105 Fresno State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Saturday Night Steamroller/Bailout Play (WIN) Let's end the night right as we move out to home of the Mountain West Conference kingpins! If you said the Boise State Broncos, guess again? The answer is Fresno State & this team has got a winning attitude under 3rd-year HC Jeff Tedford (22-7 here). Since coming to Fresno, Tedford has treated the partisan crowd to a near-perfect 11-1 record. This one was down-to-the-wire affair as P.J. Fleck & Co. pulled out a hard-fought 21-14 win after S Antoine Winfield's acrobatic interception in the end zone thwarted the Bulldogs last efforts. What stands out for us here is the fact that the Golden Gophers survived 28-21 last Saturday but were out first-downed (23-17), out-rushed (174-132), out-passed (193-176) & out-gained (367-308) by an FCS entry from the Missouri Valley Conference, the South Dakota State Jackrabbits. I love our chances getting more than a FG here since Fresno State has a reputation of getting it done in home openers, winning 13 out of their last 15 & 28-4-1 SU over the longer haul. Yes, the Bulldogs lost more through graduation than Minnesota but having senior QB Jorge Reyna back is key. However, my bottom line looks @ the Golden Gophers ineptitude @ winning on the road. They now dropped 10 of their last 12 SU entering in. The kicker for us looks @ the true money-crunching stat that reveals Tedford being true to form with a take-me-to-the-window quick 9-0 ATS as underdog since leaving Cal for Fresno. With a bye on deck, let's travel to Fresno's Bulldog Stadium to play the FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my CFB Saturday Night Steamroller/Bailout Play! Syracuse vs. Maryland (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-111 Syracuse Rating: 7* Mike's Saturday Lone Wolf (LOSS) Fellas, there's a serious coaching matchup advantage here! You have a definite advantage with the seasoned Dino Babers who guided the Cuse' to a 10-3 campaign last season going up against a HC by default in Mike Locksley who is 4-31 SU career in that role. Locksley took the job in the middle of last season (finished 1-5) after the firing of D.J. Durkin. For this one, the team with the better defense will come out on top. Syracuse has talent & depth defensively to outlast the Terrapins for 4 quarters. Don't believe that Babers allows a look-ahead to Clemson in upstate New York next weekend. Last weekend, Babers was crafty using a vanilla playbook to get by Liberty without exposing the core of his playbook. The Orange playbook may not generate the same amount of plays when Eric Dungey was under center, but new QB Tommy Devito (a pocket passer) has some talent @ RB with Moe Neal & Oklahoma transfer Abdul Adams providing sustained drives under OC Mike Lynch. Maryland RB Anthony McFarland Jr. will get his yardage but not enough to seriously handicap DC Brian Ward's 3-4 defensive scheme that runs a Tampa 2. They registered 8 sacks last week & now put pressure on QB Josh Jackson (a Virginia Tech transfer) whose only making his 2nd career start under center. After crunching some serious numbers, we've found Syracuse a solid 10-3 ATS their last 13 roadies while the Terrapins are no-shows after SU wins by 20+ going an anemic 1-11 ATS. We're not over-reacting to MD's 79-0 win over Howard as we go to Capital One Field @ Maryland Stadium in College Park to play the SYRACUSE ORANGE as my 7* Saturday Lone Wolf! Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 CFB Overall Record: 3-3 for 50% Mike Handzelek's Last 13 Overall Plays (all sports) 10-3 for 77%
 


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