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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 2 Analysis, Review & Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 11, 2018
   
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Saturday, September 08, 2018 California vs. BYU (NCAAF) - 10:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: 147 California Rating: 9* Mike's CFB ML Underdog Game Of The Week (WIN) Don't be fooled by the close score last week in Berkeley! Justin Wilcox & his Golden Bears are loaded this season. Despite Wilcox shuffling QB's (mainly Ross Bowers & Chase Garbers), Cal is returning 10 starters (18 overall) to its offense including 1,000 yd rusher Patrick Laird. This is now the 2nd season of the new offense installed by OC Beau Baldwin who came over after achieving 6 playoff trips in his 9 years (85-32) @ Eastern Washington. Da Bears are also highly successful in road openers winning 4 straight & 8 of their last 11. The matchup I love here is the Golden Bears defense (+4 last week in TO ratio) versus BYU's turnover-prone QB in Tanner Mangum (threw more INT's than TD's last season). Last week, the Cougars controlled the clock with 43 rushes versus Arizona. I'm not counting on them doing it again versus a better & beefy Cal defensive front. My bottom line points out that BYU is just 2-5 SU versus the PAC 12 since 2015. The majority of those games have been close with the Cougars usually getting edged. I'm not sure I want to give BYU too much credit over 1st-year Wildcats' HC Kevin Sumlin. I serious believe Cal (about 20 teams higher up on the depth charts) should be favored here & last week's Cougar win in the desert has tilted the number dramatically in our favor. Let's move on up to LaVell Edwards Stadium in Provo to hop all over the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS as my CFB ML Underdog Game Of The Week! Michigan State vs. Arizona State (NCAAF) - 10:45 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-105 Arizona State Rating: 7* Mike's Saturday Night CFB Bailout Play (WIN) Kudos has to go out to new HC (ex-Pac-10 player (played DB for Cal) Herm Edwards (1st coaching job since the KC Chiefs in 08') for getting the Sun Devils off on the right foot with a 49-7 win over UTSA. It wasn't as easy a win last week for Spartans' HC Mark Dantonio whose team barely squeaked past Utah State. Michigan State were unimpressive on the ground as was QB Brian Lewerke who was inconsistent with his passing game. The key in this contest is how well 1st-year DC Danny Gonzales implements his 3-3-5 defensive scheme to thwart Lewerke & an offense that returning. Speaking of returning, ASU's offense is far from stagnate as QB Manny Wilkins returns for his senior day to an offense that returns 8. Wilkins looked sharp last week throwing for 4 TD's. In the numbers stresses that ASU is a perfect 10-0 SU home all-time versus the Big Ten including knocking off Wisconsin 5 years ago. Looking @ ATS numbers, Michigan State have not only dropped their last 6 versus the PAC-12, but the past 3 seasons have seen the Spartans drop 8 of 9 ATS decisions installed as a road favorite. My bottom line says some key intangibles you can't overlook are the heat combined with the late western starting time. With everything factored in, I'm ready to go to Sun Devil Stadium in Tempe to play the ARIZONA STATE SUN DEVILS as my Saturday Night CFB Bailout Play! NOTES: In this business, you take what you can get without forcing plays. This week, it just so happened that my only 2 sleeper picks out of the PAC-12 turned out to be underdogs instead of favorites. That makes it ever so tasty as execution was the only thing permitting us from perfection on Saturday. We weren't denied as both delivered OUTRIGHT with a BIG payback on Cal as we swept the board which gave us BIG momentum heading into NFL's tricky Week 1. Keep an eye out for my other sleepers with Hawaii in the Mountain West West Division, Marshall in the Conference USA East Division, Virginia Tech in the ACC Coastal Division as well as Vanderbilt in the SEC East Division. Expect 2-4 college plays this weekend pending on line movement & value. REMINDER: Read my articles for accurate records each week due to the VTD scoring system NOT taking into account buy points which moves winning percentages & units down dramatically. Here's my record after Week 2. Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Week 2 Record: 2-0 for 100% Mike Handzelek's 2018-19 CFB Season Overall Record: 3-2 for 60%
 


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