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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 13 Analysis & Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 26, 2018
   
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Saturday, November 24, 2018 Utah State vs. Boise State (NCAAF) - 10:15 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -132 Boise State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play (WIN) Accolades to the Aggies for achieving their 10 consecutive SU win last week versus Colorado State. The narrow 29-24 triumph in Fort Collins (but lost ATS as 29-point chalk) broke the school's 9-game win streak set by the 1960 squad led by none other than Merlin Olsen. That game was even closer since Utah State needed a Rams' last-second TD pass to be nullified due to WR Preston Williams barely out-of-bounds & ruled as an illegible receiver. Utah State (leads the nation with 10 non-offensive TD's, 6 defensive, 4 special teams) now takes on a tough 9-2 SU Boise State team that's turned the ball over just 3 times their past 5 contests. How much does USU have left after that comeback last week in the snow & freezing rain? I'm loving our chances with the home charges led by senior QB Brett Rypien (completed 263 of 384 passes for 3,270 yards, 31/7 TD/INT ratio) whose offense has put up 460 total YPG as well as 37.4 PPG. He became only the 17th all-time FBS QB to pass for 13,000 career passing yards (13,146) & ALSO has some pretty good run support with Alex Mattison rushing for 1,015 yards thus far. My bottom line says we'll trust the leading Mountain West defense (10 starters back) versus the second-ranked (only to Oklahoma) offense in the nation. Until the Aggies can PROVE they can beat the "Boys From The Blue Turf" (lost 14 out of the last 15 SU in the series), we'll side with the proven commodity to get the job done in a game for the Mountain West Mountain Division. The winner takes on 9-2 SU team in the Fresno State Bulldogs. My dagger looks @ the strength of schedule or lack thereof for Utah State. The last time they took on a team of this caliber was back in Week 1 when they lost 38-31 versus Michigan State. Let's make room as we fly up to Boise's Albertsons Stadium to play the BOISE STATE BRONCOS as my CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play! UAB vs. Middle Tenn St (NCAAF) - 3:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/101 Middle Tenn St Rating: 7* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (WIN) The mushes love looking @ and comparing records with Middle Tennessee being just 7-4 while UAB comes in @ 9-2 SU. Unfortunately it's not as easy as that. My main question here looks @ what is UAB actually playing for? They're locked into the Conference USA championship as winners of the Western Division @ 7-0. However, the Eastern Division is much in doubt since both Florida International (plays Marshall @ home) & Middle Tennessee State are deadlocked @ 6-1. The Blue Raiders has 24-15 first down & 392-324 total yard advantages in their 34-23 loss @ Kentucky last week. Two early TO's by MTS (one was a 66-yd pick 6) turned into 14 Wildcat points that wound up being the difference in the misleading outcome. Revenge lays on the Middle Tennessee State (17 returning starters including Senior QB Brent Stockstill-HC Rick Stockstill's son) side for the Blazers' 25-23 down-to-the-wire win last season @ Legion Field in Birmingham. I'm banking on Marshall pulling out that "W" in that noon start game that should give the home squad added motivation. Let's go to Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium in Murfeesboro, TN to play the MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE BLUE RAIDERS as my CFB Public Missed Perception Play! New Mexico State vs. Liberty (NCAAF) - 2:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -274 Liberty Rating: 9* 9* Revenge Game Of The Week (WIN) Look for HC Turner Gil (7th season here) to prep his charges well as 6 wins (getting them technically bowl-eligible but are ineligible since they're a 1st-year FBS transitional squad) are within their grasp IF they beat New Mexico State & Norfolk State @ home (3-1 SU there) in back-to-back weeks. The 4-6 SU Flames have not had a losing season since 2005. These 2 independent schools met earlier in Week 5 @ Aggie Memorial Stadium in Las Cruces where Liberty rang up 524 offensive yards but came up short 49-41. The Flames are new to the FBS but made their presence known last season when they went to Baylor & won 48-45 as 30 1/2-point dogs. With 9 offensive starters back this season, they've beaten HC Bob Davie's New Mexico Lobos 52-43 (7-point pups) in Albuquerque AND Sun Belt entry Troy State (9-2 SU) 22-16 as 11-point dogs. My bottom line says DC Robert Wimberly (7th season here & came over from Kansas with Gil) should contain the Aggies employing a unique 4-2-5 defensive scheme that employs an active SPUR-back (Ceneca Espinoza) & is led by leading tacklers SS Elijah Benton & WLB Soloman Ajayi. With Gil achieving 6 wins for the last 3 consecutive seasons, I like his chances for doing it again. Let's trek to Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, VA to play the LIBERTY FLAMES as my 9* Revenge Game Of The Week! Syracuse vs. Boston College (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-106 Boston College Rating: 10* Mike's Old 12 Star CFB Regular Season Game Of The Year (LOSS) Here's an ACC Atlantic Divisional game between teams right behind Clemson. Both have vastly improved since their 5th & 7th place finishes last season. Eagles RB A.J. Dillon (116 yards last week @ Florida State & became the 1st BC player in their 120-year history to have back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons) should be salivating to face the Orange & their 96th-ranked defense. My bottom line points to Syracuse QB Eric Dungey who got banged up (an upper body injury) in their 36-3 loss to Notre Dame @ Yankee Stadium last week. This gives way to a redshirt freshman named Tommy DeVito who struggled versus the Irish. This in-experience now goes up against DC Tim Reid's 4-3 defensive scheme that has prime-timer BC CB Hamp Cheevers roaming the secondary (leads the nation with 7 interceptions). Syracuse looked road weary last week but now has to go on the road for the 3rd time in 4 weeks. Look for the Orange offense to be grounded outside the dome in inclement weather similar to last week. Being an SU fan, it's tough to go against HC Dino Babers (8-2 ATS their last 10 roadies) when travelling but they face a BC that's already beaten Miami (Fla.) 27-14 @ this venue a month ago. In addition, it's hard to back the Orange who have turned the ball 6 times their last 2 outings. Too many intangibles point directly @ the home-standing Eagles NOT to take advantage of them here. My dagger has to be HC Steve Addazio & Boston College using reverse psychology by running an up-tempo offense up against a defense that should be GASSED in the second half. Let's go to Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill to play the BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES (for 12 Stars) as my CFB Regular Season Game Of The Year! Mike Handzelek's CFB Overall Seasonall Record: 24-11 for 69% Ranked #1 Capper on VegasTopDogs in Win %
 

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