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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 12 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 24, 2020
   
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Saturday, November 21, 2020 Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -146 Virginia Tech Rating: 8* Mike's Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Jon Q. Public has spoken & unanimously agree that the Panthers' "D" will shut down the Virginia Tech run game & execute revenge for a 28-0 pasting they took last season on Bud Foster Day in Blacksburg. Like Lee Corso coins, "Not So Fast My Friends" as new Gobblers' DC Justin Hamilton (former Hokies' LB) will be installing some new wrinkles to his 4-3 alignment that returned 10 starters from last season. Tech should be ready to turn the corner after close games in losing to Miami (Fla) 25-24 & to Liberty 38-35 the last 2 weeks. For this one, HC Pat Narduzzi had to deal with COVID-19 protocols all week (shut down on Tuesday) & only got in 1 practice. Pitt's game with Georgia Tech was also postponed before that. To me, that's a lot of adversity & disrupted chemistry! My bottom line says I'd rather trust intangibles (previously mentioned) & power ratings than what any pollsters or trends (VT 0-9 @ Pittsburgh) have to say. The power ratings are crystal clear that give Virginia Tech a 22nd rank while Pittsburgh comes in a distant 43rd. Both teams come in with identical 4-4 SU records but I believe QB Hendon Hooker will get the Hokies' offense moving over Pitt's Kenny Pickett (whose still got some rust coming off an injury). It'll be strength against strength in the trenches. We'll take HC Justin Fuente & the VT ground game that leads the ACC in rushing yards per game with 262.8. I'm looking for QB Hooker to make hot reads & throw for some yardage when the over-aggressive Pittsburgh "D" loads the box to force the issue. I'm ready to go to Heinz Field to play the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES as my Public Missed Perception Play! Appalachian State vs. Coastal Carolina (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 5/-115 Appalachian State Rating: 9* Mike's Sun Belt Sharp Play (LOSS) Is Appalachian State just as good this year as they were back in 08' when they upset #5 Michigan 34-32 in Ann Arbor? No, but they've been good enough this season to compete for another Sun Belt Championship. While HC Jamey Chadwell & Coastal Carolina (in their 4th season on the FBS level) are definitely labeled one of those cinderella teams that's still undefeated (7-0) moving down the stretch. Their opponent today is a defending Sun Belt champion & 6-1 SU Appalachian State squad of HC Shawn Clark that has inherited a 13-1 team who have a big majority of offensive starters back (including playmaking QB Zac Thomas). The Mountaineers looked like they were CLEARLY looking ahead when they came from behind to beat Georgia State 17-13 @ Kidd Brewer Stadium last week. The Chanticleers (5-7 SU last year) may have the better offense but its Appalachian State whose defense has limited foes to a very stingy 15 PPG over the past month. This series (7th meeting) has been all Mountaineers who claimed all 6 SU wins. My bottom line points out this will be the BIGGEST game in Coastal's redshirt freshman QB Grayson McCall collegiate career. I expect DC Dale Jones to load the box with his 3-4 alignment to force him to throw instead of getting the run game going with RB's C.J. Marable & Reese White. Speaking of RB's, Daetrich Harrington (leads the Sun Belt with 7 rushing TD's) was held out last week. I expect him to be fresh & ready in providing a balanced attack. The Chanticleers had their momentum broken last week by the Troy game postponement so we'll see if they can turn on that same fire without skipping a beat versus a "D" that hasn't given up over 3 TD's all season. Crunching the numbers, Coastal Carolina comes into this conference home favorite role being a perfect 0-4 ATS. How does the Mountaineers fare as an underdog? Their last 3 dog roles have seen them win @ South Carolina 20-15 getting 6-points, win @ Louisiana 17-7 as a 1 1/2-point dog & winning outright again 34-31 while installed as 2 1/2-point pups @ North Carolina. The jury is in as we go to Brooks Stadium in Conway, SC to play the APPALACHIAN STATE MOUNTAINEERS (buying to exactly + 7 1/2) as my 9* Sun Belt Sharp Play! Thursday, November 19, 2020 Tulane vs. Tulsa (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -6/-110 Tulsa Rating: 9* Mike's 9* CFB Earlybird Dependable (WIN) Tulane HC Willie Fritz & Tulsa skipper Philip Montgomery made big-time halftime adjustments as they both came out with the "W" last week. I believe the hungrier team is 4-1 SU Tulsa who have lost 3 straight SU to the Green Wave. What really stands out for me is the situation 5-4 SU Tulane is in. When installed as a road underdog, they've gone a moneyline ticket-ripping 1-13 SU their last 14. They travel on a short week, their defense is yielding over 40 PPG on the road over the last 3 & they yield 50 YPG more than their opponent tonight. My bottom line points out Golden Hurricane senior QB Zach Smith has the experience to pick apart the suspect Tulane secondary that gave up 861 passing yards combined to Central Florida & S.M.U.. Smith beat both teams this season & has put up an average of 446 total yards & 35 PPG versus the American Athletic Conference. I love the way Smith didn't get shook facing being down 21-0 early then later with a 24-7 halftime deficit versus the Mustangs last week. Look for WR's Keylon Stokes & Josh Johnson to step it up who've combined for 741 receiving yards on 53 catches good for 6 TD's this short season. This series @ this venue has seen the "Big Breeze" rule the numbers covering the last 6 of 7. Tulsa is now ranked in the Top 25 (25th) for the first time in 10 seasons. The Golden Hurricane need a victory here before they take on Houston on the road & Cincinnati @ home to challenge for the AAC title. Let's get my deep card this week started off right as we go to H.A. Chapman Stadium to play the TULSA GOLDEN HURRICANE (buying to the strategic number of - 2 1/2) as my 9* CFB Earlybird Dependable! NOTES: I had a split going & a winning 2-1 week going in the early games as Appalachian State as promised held the lead outright with less than 2 minutes to go. Coastal Carolina took a slim lead above a minute to go. The Mountaineers gave the ball back. Instead of running the clock out, they run around right end & score yet ANOTHER TD for the shocking cover! The highlight of the week was the wild OT win by Tulsa on Thursday as the strongest play of the week. It seems the mushes are on a mini-run. We'll counter-act with a few more plays since CFB looks like economy is throwing too many winners out. I'll be back Saturday with a bigger card. Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 13-14 48%
 


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