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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 12 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 21, 2019
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Saturday, November 16, 2019 TCU vs. Texas Tech (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 3/-108 Texas Tech Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (WIN) The Big 12 race looks like it'll be down to Baylor & Oklahoma who play each other this weekend. This game is about 2 (4-5 SU) teams vying for the right to inch closer to bowl eligibility. What stands out for me has to be the amount of injuries the Horned Frogs have endured @ QB. HC Gary Patterson can only work miracles with good skill position players in place. Mike Collins has sat out the past 2 & is questionable for this one. Matthew Baldwin is sidelined indefinitely due to eligibility issues. Justin Rogers has missed the past 2 recovering from ACL surgery & nerve damage in his foot. Getting another start for T.C.U. is their 6'2" freshman from Council Bluffs, Iowa - Max Duggan. Duggan has gone 1-3 SU on the road & have committed 9 TO's the past 3 games. This fits like a glove for us since DC Keith Patterson (who was also under HC Matt Wells @ Utah State) 3-4 aggressive scheme have yielded 14 turnovers the past 5. In the numbers show these Red Raiders are far from slouches going 3-1 SU @ home & have covered the last 4 of 5 in this series @ this venue. My bottom line says the Purple & White (who have to travel to Oklahoma next week) have been shut out the past 5 on field turf versus the number & I don't see that changing here. Let's go to Jones AT&T Stadium to play the TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (buying to + 4 1/2) as my 9* CFB Earlybird Dependable! USC vs. California (NCAAF) - 11:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 6.5/-110 California Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play (LOSS) Many of the mushes believe that 6-4 SU now bowl-eligible U.S.C. team goes on a 3-game tear to end the regular season here. We do not! I feel reality sets in as the Trojans might be down to their 3rd-string QB - Matt Fink. Mater Dei HS standout J.T. Daniels torn his ACL & was lost for the season while his backup Kedon Slovis left the game @ Arizona State with a left leg injury (listed as questionable). What stands out is the Southern Cal offense is turning the ball over (7 times the past 3) & they now take to the road the 3rd time in 3 weeks. Who do they have on deck? A game with their most-hated rival, the U.C.L.A. Bruins. I like the fact that fairly new HC Justin Wilcox (in his 3rd season) stresses defense & made 2nd-half adjustments nicely last season when the Golden Bears held the men of Troy to 277 total yards & zero points in the 2nd half when they upset them 15-14 @ the L.A. Memorial Coliseum. That game may have turned the tide as it broke a U.S.C. 14-game series' winning streak. My bottom line points out that same defense is performing very well @ home this season yielding just 19 PPG. NOBODY (except Utah) has been scoring on them of late as witnessed by holding 14 out of the past 15 opponents to 24 or less. The Trojans are just 2-3 SU on the road this season with wins by 4 & 5 points. We'll gladly go to California Memorial Stadium in Berkeley to play the CALIFORNIA GOLDEN BEARS (buying to + 7 1/2) as my CFB Saturday Night Bailout Play! Central Michigan vs. Ball State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-110 Central Michigan Rating: 9* Mike's MAC Daddy Game Of The Week (WIN) I love the direction Central Michigan is going. They are fresh off grinding it out over Northern Illinois in a game where they rushed for 327 yards 7 over 600 total yards of offense. This fits nicely since the Ball State "D" has yielded 694 rushing yards the last 2. Yes, HC Jim McElwain is in his 1st year @ CMU after taking over a program that finished 1-11 SU last season. He's turned them around to bowl-eligible status @ 6-4 SU & should have his troops motivated after losing 24-23 in Mount Pleasant to a last-minute FG. The Chippewas return to this venue where they humbled the Cardinals 56-9 two seasons ago. My bottom line says CMU should control the clock using RB's Jonathan Ward & Koby Lewis who've combined for 1,651 rushing yards & 19 TD's this season. We'll take the points here as Mike's MAC Daddy Game Of The Week plays the CENTRAL MICHIGAN CHIPPEWAS (buying to + 3 1/2) @ Scheumann Stadium in Muncie! Texas vs. Iowa State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -6.5/-115 Iowa State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Both of these teams are ranked in the Top 20 for total offense. However, there's a BIG gap on defense where ISU chimes in @ 42nd compared to Texas whose way down the line @ 108th of a possible 130. Power ratings tell the tale of perception with Iowa State @ 17th but bettors have them @ 19. The longhorns are just the opposite as the power ratings have them @ 30th but bettors bump them up to 24th. Digging in a little deeper, the Cyclones have met Texas 15 times in the last 39 years but NEVER have been favored. In fact, Hook'em Horns have been favored by an average of 12.2 in those games. The line has moved about 19 points in the other direction. Red & Gold HC Matt Campbell (in his 4th year) can consistently win in the Big 12 (69%) but he's super-hungry to beat Texas for the 1st time in his tenure. I look QB Brock Purdy to lead his team to a double-digit win! Let's go to the grass @ Jack Trice Stadium in Ames to play the IOWA STATE CYCLONES as my 8* CFB Public Missed Perception Play! NOTES: Had a little tough luck as we limited plays from 6 to 4 only to find Notre Dame & Indiana were both winners. It was equally tough to see Iowa State blow a 20-7 lead in the 4th quarter as the killer instinct just wasn't there. If you look @ how well Brock Purdy & Co. moved the football for 466 total yards, it didn't show on the scoreboard as ISU won 23-21 but didn't get the cover. We'll still take the Texas Tech & Central Michigan (our co-Strongest Plays Of The Week) wins even though Cal couldn't move the football in a disappointing loss @ home versus Southern Cal. Looking forward, we'll take a very close look @ the Top 50 teams that are vastly under-valued by the public going into this week such as: Utah, Minnesota, Oklahoma State, Indiana, Appalachian State, Tennessee, Kentucky & Virginia Tech. If lines are satisfactory, we'll be pulling the lever! Mike Handzelek's 2019 CFB Week 12 Record: 2-2 for 50% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 28-20 for 58% Last 5 Weeks CFB Record: 18-8 for 69%

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