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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 11 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 13, 2019
   
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Saturday, November 09, 2019 Penn State vs. Minnesota (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -250 Penn State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Headliner Moneyliner (LOSS) HC P.J. Fleck has really rose up this perennial Big Ten cellar-dweller into a conference west division contender. However, facing a Penn State defense (give up a stingy 71 rushing YPG on the road) that's ranked 2nd in scoring "D" is a whole different challenge. The Golden Gophers also come in with a full 2-game lead in the west over Wisconsin & Iowa. Even though Minny is 8-0 SU (PSU also 8-0 SU), they've faced NO ONE in the Top 50 in power rankings. In fact, Fleck & Co. had more than a few close calls against some inferior competition like South Dakota State (28-21), Fresno State (38-35), Georgia Southern (35-32) & Purdue (38-31). The last 5 of their wins have seen them face 4 second or third-string QB's. On the flip side of the coin, the Nittany Lions have beat 3 quality Big 10 teams in succession. They've beaten Iowa in Iowa City 17-12, Michigan @ Happy Valley (State College) 28-21 & Michigan State in East Lansing 28-7. I feel PSU's sophomore QB Sean Clifford (20/3 TD/INT) gets the nod over another sophomore in Minnesota's Tanner Morgan (18/4 TD/INT) since Clifford's stats carry a truer indication of legitimacy since he clearly faced a more brutal schedule. HC James Franklin & Co. have been money going 21-10-1 ATS in conference games as well as 19-7-2 ATS versus winning ball clubs. Yep, we're ready to take a trip to the hydronic heated field turf of TCF Bank Stadium (home of the Vikings) to lay the lumber as we pound the tough in-the-trenches team -- the PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS as my CFB Headliner Moneyliner! East Carolina vs. SMU (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 21/-110 East Carolina Rating: 8* Mike's Over-Priced & Distracted Favorite Play (WIN) The 8-1 SU S.M.U. Mustangs had their dreams of an undefeated season crushed last week in a bitter 54-48 road defeat @ Memphis. While they're now out of the picture to make the top 4, their fate for a American Athletic Conference West Division title is still up in the air. S.M.U. (4-1) come in 1/2 game behind Navy (5-1) with a big road game with the Midshipmen immediately on-deck. I don't think we see an "A" game from the Mustangs in this situation on homecoming. Instead, I'd rather trust the East Carolina QB Holton Ahlers whose fresh off putting up 535 passing yards (638 total yards) versus 7-1 SU Cincinnati last week in a 46-43 loss. Ahlers has proven he can also hang on the road coming within 2 TD's (41-28) @ 7-3 SU Central Florida. In the numbers further point out the Pirates average scoring margin is @ -6 PPG while S.M.U. chimes in with a +13 PPG average. ECU has embraced the underdog role covering 4 of their last 5. With a bye on deck before travelling to Storrs, CT, expect a focused Mike Houston team to make this interesting. We'll gladly go to Gerald J. Ford Stadium in Dallas to play the EAST CAROLINA PIRATES (BUYING TO + 22 1/2) as my Over-Priced & Distracted Favorite Play! Wake Forest vs. Virginia Tech (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-108 Virginia Tech Rating: 8* Mike's ACC Upriser Play (WIN) Let's not pay too much attention to records with Wake Forest (7-1 SU) or Virginia Tech (5-3 SU). Hokies' DC Bud Foster (23rd year @ VT with 23 straight bowls) has an athletic secondary (10 also return on "D") that has proven it can hang with a quality program like Notre Dame on the road last week in a 21-20 loss. In addition, Wake Forest QB Jamie Newman big target in 6'5" senior WR Scotty Washington isn't @ 100%. This should aid our cause since Foster can further adjust his 4-3 defensive scheme to account for the Demon Deacons other dangerous WR in Sage Surratt. These Gobblers still have a shot @ the ACC Coastal Division crown being 1 game behind front-runner Virginia (but even in the loss column) & have a road game in Charlottesville 3 Fridays from now. Wake Forest sits a few GB ACC Atlantic Division leader Clemson but not sure of their focus since they travel to play those Tigers next week. I strongly feel we catch Dave Clawson & his troops lookin' since looming in the back of their minds has to be that 63-3 humiliating loss last season in Winston-Salem. I'm eager to select the VIRGINIA TECH HOKIES (buying to + 4 1/2) as my ACC Upriser Play! Louisville vs. Miami Florida (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-115 Louisville Rating: 8* Mike's 8 Star Barking Out Loud Dogger (LOSS) I love this situation with Miami of Florida feeling very satisfied off their road victory over rival Florida State (27-10) last week. Miami HC Manny Diaz has had dueling QB's but I'm expecting him to stick with red-shirt freshman Jarren Williams after his production of 327 passing yards versus FSU. I'm ALSO not expecting a Louisville team to be intimidated since they've looked pretty strong in a tough-spot 62-59 road win @ Wake Forest a month ago. New Cardinals' HC Scott Satterfield (coached @ Appalachian State the past 5 seasons) has the knack of covering the number as his teams have gone an impressive 18-6-1 the past 25 lined games. Part of that success has to be RB Javian Hawkins rushing for 5.4 YPC (887 rushing yards) & consistently moving the chains. He should be fresh since Louisville had 2 weeks prep for this tilt. The Hurricanes' secondary may also be vulnerable after losing key cog Bubba Bolden @ safety. Let's bolt down to Hard Rock Stadium in Florida to play the LOUISVILLE CARDINALS as my 8 Star Barking Out Loud Dogger! Stanford vs. Colorado (NCAAF) - 3:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -158 Stanford Rating: 10* 10 Star Strongest Play On The Board (LOSS) This game deals with momentum (Stanford has won 3 of 4 with only loss to U.C.L.A. with their 3rd-string QB) & defense as the homecoming-approaching Buffaloes (0-5 SU the last 5) haven't held ANYONE under 30 points this season! The 4-4 SU Cardinal will be focused here since a win here AND against California @ home in a few weeks advances them to bowl-eligible status regardless of their outcomes against Washington State & Notre Dame. They now take on the struggling offense of Colorado (averaging 14.5 PPG over their last 4) that has their leading rusher Alex Fontenot (78.1 YPG) listed as questionable. Further motivation aiding our cause is the Trees being in revenge mode for an ugly 10-5 home loss to the Buffs the last time out. They'll have a fresh QB in K.J. Costello whose had 2 weeks to prep for the suspect Colorado "D" that's allowed an average of 334 yards passing over their past 3 & over 425 total yards in all 9 contests. Now let's crunch some serious numbers! Stanford is a proven commodity as an away favorite going a window-cashing 10-3-1 ATS. This blends nicely since the Buffaloes rumble in the other direction dropping 4 of the last 5 versus the number as a home dog. My bottom line says Cardinal HC David Shaw has consistently dominated opponents in the month of November. His troops carry a juicy 25-7 SU record over the long haul in that category. When Costello came back off injury a few weeks ago versus Arizona, he passed for 312 yards & a 3/0 TD/INT ratio in a 41-31 win. I'm calling for 3 more TD's here versus a team struggling to score over 2 TD's a game. Let's head to natural grass of Folsom Field in Boulder to play David Shaw's club to record another November SU win as this selection is on the STANFORD CARDINAL as my Strongest Play On The Board! NOTES: Never saw the Stanford debacle coming in Colorado against a Buffaloes' squad that was mostly dominated amidst a 5-game losing streak. The Cardinal may have outgained Colorado but came up short on the scoreboard 16-13. The week turned into a losing one when Louisville co-DC's Bryan Brown & Cort Dennison got thoroughly out-coached even though they had 10 returning starters & 2 weeks to prep for the Hurricanes' offense under 1st-year OC Dan Enos-ex Alabama QB's coach. Even though the Penn State (now 8-1 SU) offense generated a game-high 518 total yards of offense & held the (9-0 SU) Golden Gophers to 121 yards on the ground, the Nittany Lions' secondary were slow to react to the edges on mid to deep pass routes that resulted in 3 Tanner Morgan TD passes in a 31-26 road loss. The only consolation on Saturday was that 2 dogs were golden with Virginia Tech (+ 4 1/2) winning outright 36-17 over Wake Forest & East Carolina (+ 22 1/2) giving S.M.U. everything they can handle in a 59-51 loss. Let's regroup & look @ dogs the rest of the way for the month of upsets in November. Mike Handzelek's 2019 CFB week 11 Record: 2-3 for 40% CFB (last 4 weeks overall) 16-6 for 73% Mike Handzelek's 2019-20 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 26-18 for 59%
 


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