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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 11 Analysis/Review/Notes

By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 14, 2017
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Saturday, November 11, 2017 TCU vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.0/-130 TCU Pick Title: 9 Star Big 12 Regular Season Title Eliminator (LOSS) This is very intriguing game since the loser may wind up playing the winner in the Big 12 Championship since it pits the No.1 versus No. 2 finisher of the regular season. For this matchup, even though Oklahoma had a convincing wins @ Ohio State 31-16 & last week 62-52 in their "Bedlam" rivalry game with Oklahoma State, look for the top-ranked run-stuffing T.C. U. defense (allowed a stingy average of 12.3 RYPG their last 3) & slow-tempo style from HC Gary Patterson (in his 17th year here) to frustrate QB Baker Mayfield who left too much on the field getting that "Bedlam" W. We won't under-estimate DC Chad Glasgow again who has come up with some excellent defensive schemes time & time again this season holding Texas to 9 rushing yards & 7 points last week as well as Iowa State to 53 rushing yards & 14 points despite coming up on the short end 14-7 just 2 weeks ago. I look for the Horned Frogs & their 10 returning starters on offense to generate enough points to turn this into a tightly-contested game. Let's make our way to Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman to play the T.C.U. HORNED FROGS (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -150) as my 9 Star Big 12 Regular Season Title Eliminator! Duke vs. Army (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -145 Duke Pick Title: 10 Star Earlybird Coaching Mismatch (LOSS) All I know about this game is that 10-year HC David Cutcliffe knows what's coming! That's a pretty big advantage for these Dukies who have handled the triple-option very well over the past 2 seasons. How well do you ask? Well, in 2015 the Blue Devils won here 44-3 as 14-point favorites as well as beating Georgia Tech 34-20 outright as 7-point dogs. Last season, they beat 4th-year HC Jeff Monken's Army entry again 13-6 as 5-point favorites & lost 38-35 @ Georgia Tech but slipped under the number cashing as a 6 1/2-point dog. That's 4 straight covers coming into this fracas @ West Point. I like the fact that the Black Knights put a lot into last week's Commander-In-Chief game & over-achieved @ Air Force for a stunning 21-0 shutout win. That was a game where Army didn't pass once! This one-dimensional offense won't work against the defensive schemes laid out by HC David Cutcliffe & his 8th-year DC Jim Knowles (HC @ Cornell from 04' thru 09'). Since some teams make a bowl with 5 wins, this game will be of extreme importance for Duke (missed a bowl last year @ 4-8) who has another triple-option team on-deck (Georgia Tech-brilliant scheduling) before finishing with Wake Forest. My bottom line says Army is 7-2 SU & already bowl-eligible with their Commander-In-Chief game with Navy coming soon. The Black Knights are riding a 5-game winning streak coming into this one but have won over mostly cream puffs this season like Fordham, Buffalo, UTEP, Rice, Eastern Michigan, Temple & an under .500 Air Force squad. In the numbers also plainly shows that these same Blue Devils have covered 6 of their last 7 versus triple-option teams (Army, Navy & Georgia Tech) the past 4 seasons. Now, Duke has 2 weeks to prepare for this one & already has held Army to 4.5 PPG over the past 2 seasons. The dagger for us has to concern the betting number since the Black Knights have NEVER covered 2 weeks straight this year entering now their 10th game. Remember, the Dukies rank 29th in the country in total defense versus ACC teams while Army 35th ranking in that category was against a cream-puff schedule. I'm convinced we get the "W" here! Let's go up to windy Mitchie Stadium to play the DUKE BLUE DEVILS as my 10 Star Earlybird Coaching Mismatch! Georgia vs. Auburn (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2.5/-115 Auburn Pick Title: 9 Star SEC Up & Comer (WIN) It looks like another win for Georgia & the right to meet Alabama in the SEC championship right? Let's say it's a possibility. The 7-2 SU Auburn Tigers of 5th-year HC Gus Malzahn may have lost 2 one-score games on the road @ Clemson & L.S.U., but they're still perfect @ home this season. In fact, Malzahn hasn't lost much in front of the partisan crowd since coming to Auburn going 27-7 in that category. I feel there's not too much that separate these 2 with both having a Top Ten scoring defense. In the numbers also show that even though the Junkyard Dogs appear to have a better offense, it's actually the Tigers with the better Total offense ranked 22nd while Georgia chimes in @ 31. This game could be compared to the Notre Dame nail-biter the Bulldogs had earlier in South Bend that they survived in the end 20-19. I feel Georgia can't continue to dodge bullets in the highly-competitive SEC week-in & week-out like the mushes perceive. In fact, it's very rare for the Bulldogs to get this far undefeated as you'll have to go back 35 seasons to find them with an identical 9-0 SU record. I feel we get an "A" game from Auburn since their next immediate opponent is a breather with Louisiana-Monroe-their 2nd game of a 3-game homestand. Let's go to Alabama to play the AUBURN TIGERS (buying to + 3 1/2 @ -155) as my 9 Star Up & Comer! West Virginia vs. Kansas State (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: 115 West Virginia Pick Title: 9 Star ML Underdog Play Of The Day (WIN) You won't hear me dissing HC Dana Holgorsen & his Mountaineers! They're a legitimate 6-3 SU & a still under-estimated 5-1 ATS in the Big 12 by the linesmakers. Here we have a consistent QB in Will Grier who has consistently passed for over 300 yards per game against a defense of Kansas State that has allowed 3 consecutive teams to pass for over 400 YPG entering in here. Remember, one of those teams to pass for over 400 yards was the 118th out of 130 scoring offense in the land - Kansas! I don't see how new OC Jake Spavital won't be able to exploit the Wildcats' defensive weaknesses opened up by injuries. Let's make a road trip to Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan to play the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS outright @ +115 as my 9 Star ML Underdog Play Of Day! Purdue vs. Northwestern (NCAAF) - 7:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-110 Purdue Pick Title: 9 Star Saturday Night CFB Bailout Play (LOSS) We would unfortunate with a rare 10 Star loss on Duke who came up short @ Army. We've zeroed in on the line & team we want for this Saturday night here in the Big 10. I'm a Jeff Brohm (a QB's HC) believer who did an excellent job while @ Western Kentucky. Now he has the Boilermakers making some noise this season playing tough in their road opener @ Louisville, dominating @ Missouri 35-3 & losing @ undefeated Wisconsin by a score in Madison. With Northwestern already bowl-eligible, Purdue has much more to play for. Nick Holt & Anthony Piondexter have this defense (8 starters back this year& rank 20th in the nation in scoring defense-NW is 55th) playing sound football versus the run as they've held their last 2 opponents (Nebraska & Illinois) to a grand total of just 120 rushing yards. My bottom line says this should carry over here to keep them in it to win it! Let's go to Ryan Field in Evanston to play the PURDUE BOILERMAKERS as my 9 Star Saturday Night CFB Bailout Play! Wow! HC Cutlcliffe & those Dukies (out-first downed them 22-16) literally knew what Army was going to do BUT still couldn't score a few TD's for the win? The Cadets gained a total of 268 yards & still won? That's stupifying to say the least! Purdue passes for 400 yards with NO turnovers! Yeah, they manage just 13 points & miss the cover by a score. It's been that kind of CFB season. How about Gary Patterson's with one of the stingiest defenses in the country give up 533 yards of offense to Oklahoma. It doesn't sound too stingy to me! At any rate, we we're an excellent 2-1 in the day calling the Auburn win. However, 0-2 @ night left us wondering IF @ 2-3 for the week. November has been our month for years but remains around the mediocrity level thus far with around half or more games played. We'll reload this week AND just may have our CFB Regular Season Game Of The Year pending on line adjustments throughout the week. We're also gauging CBB, NBA & NHL as we WILL hit OVER 60% + AGAIN this year. Check out our off-the-charts percentage in the NBA in back-to-back seasons which NO ONE is close to touching. In closing, the following is our record after Week 11: 2017-18 CFB Overall Seasonal Record Stands @ 28-29 for 49%???

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