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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 11 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 17, 2020
   
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Saturday, November 14, 2020 Baylor vs. Texas Tech (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -116 Baylor Rating: 8* Mike's Big 12 Ugly Pig Game Of The Week (LOSS) There were a majority of our plays cancelled this week due to COVID-19 protocol. The cream of the crop has been washed out so we'll proceed with caution & hope teams will play the personnel they've listed as available. Both of these coaches of their ugly teams are still feeling the water as Texas Tech's Matt Wells has gone 6-13 SU since coming to Lubbock & Baylor's Dave Aranda (DC of LSU the last 4 seasons) has compiled a 1-4 record since taking over for Matt Rhule. I like what I've seen from the 1-4 SU Bears of late even though they couldn't finish last week versus Iowa State. This week, I look for less pressure on QB Charlie Brewer (four-year starter) since he gets back 2 of his playmakers in WR Tyquan Thornton & RB John Lovett. Both of these teams have their similarities but it's the Red Raiders' "D" that raises the most red flags. Looking @ some metrics, Texas Tech's defensive TD rate of drives of all Big 12 teams is a high 39.2% of which Kansas is only worse. In comparison, the Bears' "D" chimes in @ 27.1% in that same category. Let's move over to the all-important defensive turnover rate. DC Ron Robert's bunch rate the clear edge again by reaping in a turnover on 13.6% of opponent drives which doubles the amount DC Keith Patterson & his 3-4 alignment create who force a TO on just 6.8% of drives. My bottom line says that Baylor SHOULD be able to register a season-high in scoring since the (2-5 SU) Texas Tech defense gives up a bevy of points per game (40.1) & yards (476.6) while not forcing too many punts or turnovers. In addition, I question the effectiveness new Red Raiders' QB Henry Columbi (a graduate transfer who wasn't even on their QB depth charts in the summer) after being sacked 5 times in the first half last week. The daggers for us have to be the road team covering the last 4 of 5 in this series as well as the Red Raiders being just 2-5 ATS when facing losing teams. Let's go to Jones AT&T Stadium to play the BAYLOR BEARS for the "W" as my 8* Big 12 Ugly Pig Game Of The Week! NOTES: It was a tough week since many plays were washed due to COVID-19 protocol. The lone play that was left was Baylor. The play was never in doubt until the buzzer. The Bears ruled time of possession (+7 minutes), out-rushed the Red Raiders 207-124, scored on a Pick-6 & led after each of the first 3 quarters. With a 20-12 lead, it looked like Baylor was going to ice the game with QB Charlie Brewer taking it in from the 1. However, Texas Tech LB Colin Schooler's tackle of the QB was ruled inches short of the goal line. What transpired next? A procedure penalty pushed the Bears back & they had to settle for a John Mayers FG & a 23-12 lead. Unexpectedly, the Red Raiders' starting QB Henry Columbi went down with a forearm injury & the benched Alan Bowman once again got another chance. This time it paid off as Lubbock's finest scored a TD & a FG to draw within 2 @ 23-21. The Bears failed to run out the clock but pinned their opponents back on the 14. Nevertheless, Bowman drove his team down for a game-winning FG by Jonathan Garibay @ the buzzer. The whole irony of Garibay is he transferred to Texas Tech from Riverside Community College & went 4-for-4 in this his first game subbing for a struggling Tey Wolff. Yep, it was that kind of a rare weekend that the mushes got more things to hit the fan where a few improbable games were won in the last quarter. Look for my deepest card to date this week & weekend in CFB (hopefully without scratched key plays) as the 2nd half of November is when the expected covers DON'T! We'll take advantage of each mistake as we get ready for a jumbled or staggered bowl & playoff season forthcoming. Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 12-12 for 50%
 


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