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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 10 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Nov 11, 2020
   
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Saturday, November 07, 2020 Tennessee vs. Arkansas (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -115 Tennessee Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Strongest Play Of The Week (LOSS) Yes, it's Tennessee! The Vols may not look the part @ 2-3 SU but they lost to 3 very good football teams as in Alabama, Georgia & Kentucky. Their opposition in Arkansas (also 2-3 SU) have a perfect record versus the Mississippi's but winless elsewhere. Hogs' HC Sam Pittman his OC & DC (Kendal Briles & Barry Odom) must be commended for getting the Razorbacks out of the SEC cellar. However, the oddsmakers have twisted this line way too much considering their 5-0 ATS slate & numerous undefeated trends. With Tennessee, good things started happening last season after their loss to Alabama which saw them go on a 6-0 SU tear to finish the season @ 8-5. Volunteers' HC Jeremy Pruitt (7-3 ATS on the road) has a good nucleus returning on offense & defense. This game will be won on the line of scrimmage. I feel the Tennessee experienced offensive line can make enough holes for returning RB's Eric Gray & Ty Chandler versus a porkers' "D" giving up over 5 yards per rush & 228 rushing yards per game. Thus, senior QB Jarrett Guarantino will find a comfort zone since this offense won't be going up against the caliber "D" of a Georgia or Kentucky. My bottom line says the Vols had 2 weeks to gear up for this game compared to 1 for the Porkers. They'll be fresh & coming in with sound schemes since Pruitt will take over coaching the defensive line while Derrick Ansley watches over the secondary in Tennessee's 3-4 alignment. The Orange & White will be in revenge mode for a 24-20 upset loss in Knoxville the last game of this series. We'll gladly back the team with revenge & the personnel advantage. Let's roll to Donald W. Reynolds Razorbacks Stadium in Fayetteville to play the TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS for the "W" as my 9* CFB Strongest Play Of The Week! Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -13/-110 Oklahoma State Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) Almost EVERYONE is BANKING (except me) on (4-2 SU) Kansas State HC Chris Kleiman to continue his spread successes (7-1 versus the number) as a Big 12 underdog as well as KSU's 6-2 SU record the last 8 (7-2 ATS the last 9) versus the Pokes in Manhattan. I'm not buying into the Wildcats who return 3 back on offense compared to a DC Jim Knowles "D" who practically has everyone coming back from last season. I'd rather back a Mike Gundy (16th season in Stillwater) club who would be undefeated if it weren't for their 41-34 OT loss to Texas last week INSTEAD of a KSU team with a freshman QB in Will Howard (3 INT's last week versus West Virginia). In that Texas game, the outcome was a bit misleading since OSU enjoyed decisive edges in first downs (32-17) & total yards (530-287)He's no Barry sanders but I feel this is the game where Heisman hopeful & Cowboys' RB Chubba Hubbard shines! This may seem like a gift (Wildcats @ 4-0 ATS as a double-digit home dog the last 8 years) but I feel the very talented road club is in proper mode & personnel to complete the assignment. Crunching the numbers say OSU's 143 yards per game on offense is a sizable advantage here since we trust Knowles' "D" (ranked 1st in scoring defense in the Big 12) to create enough havoc to create turnovers from a freshman QB. Their defensive blueprints were freshly laid by a West Virginia "D" that held Kansas State to 225 total yards & 10 points in Morgantown last Thursday. Remember, Hubbard shredded K-State's "D" for 296 yards last season. Trying to stop both QB Spencer Sanders AND Hubbard will be more than just a difficult task. However, playing the right number is key so let's get up for this one @ Bill Snyder Family Stadium in Manhattan as we play the OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS (buying to - 9 1/2) as my 8* CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Clemson vs. Notre Dame (NCAAF) - 7:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -220 Clemson Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Saturday Night Attention Grabber (LOSS) Here's a matchup that should be close between 2 undefeated teams in Clemson (7-0) & Notre Dame (6-0). And yes, I'm aware of the Fighting Irish record of 30-3 SU record the past 33 games dating back to their 21-17 Citrus Bowl win in the 17'-18' season. However, HC Brian Kelly's SU record @ ND versus top-5 ranked teams is a perfect 0-5. No, Clemson's backup QB D.J. Uiagaleilei isn't as diverse as Trevor Lawrence (out in COVID-19 protocol). But after a mediocre first half against Boston College last week, he & his offense settled down to register 24 points in the clutch coming all the way back from a 3rd quarter 28-10 double-digit deficit for the road win. 8th-year vet & DC Brent Venables still has excellent playmakers inside his 4-3 scheme to neutralize a Notre Dame running game that features RB's Kyren Williams & Chris Tyree. Even though the Tigers' front line defensively has some injuries, they will get back a key cog in DE Xavier Thomas who has to sit out the first half for being flagged for targeting last game. This same "D" has held 5 of 7 opponents to season-lows in total yards. My bottom line point outs the fact that even though the Leaping Leprechauns have gone 6-0 SU, those 6 were against all losing teams who've compiled a combined 12-28 record. These teams met just 2 years ago in a College Bowl Semi-Final game which the Purple & Orange came out with a lopsided 30-3 win. For the record, the last time these 2 played @ South Bend saw Clemson go down 10-0 @ the half come back to register a 16-10 victory. Let's wake up some echoes as defenses controlled that one featuring dual-threat Clemson QB Billy Lott & RB Marvin Sims for HC Danny Ford & Notre Dame QB Rusty Lisch, RB Vagas Ferguson & WR Tony Hunter for Golden Dome HC Dan Devine. Until Irish QB Ian Book can PROVE to me he can beat stiff competition (lost to Top-5 Georgia 23-17 last year), the play is the favorite SU. Let's stay glued to the tube as we go to Notre Dame Stadium in South Bend to play the CLEMSON TIGERS laying the JUICE as my CFB Saturday Night Attention Grabber! NOTES: One note about Tennessee -- HC Jeremy Pruitt (who fired his DC a short time ago) took over the front of his defensive unit. I feel his 3.8 million salary is in jeopardy after blowing a 13-0 2nd half lead in where he failed to make halftime adjustments. His defensive unit (with many starters returning) looked un-motivated & flat in crunch time of that game. Unfortunate injuries to skilled personnel to Oklahoma State gave them a win but not the cover as they keep their Big 12 post-season hopes alive. Well, Notre Dame FINALLY got over the hump @ our expense. Minus Clemson defensive front, HC Dabo Swinney almost pulled it off in OT. If Notre Dame is indeed for real, they will thwart Boston College since HC Brian Kelly knows all the flaws QB Phil Jurkovec (ex-Notre Dame & now BC's signal-caller) has & should be able to exploit them. CFB lineups have been shaken up due to COVID-19 but ALSO the sharps & mushes have been in flux too of late. It was a rare mush week so EXPECT this weekend to lite up in a BIG way. I'll see you @ the window! Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 10 Record: 0-3? Mike Handzelek's 20-21 CFB Overall Record: 12-11 for a sub-par 52%
 

  Mike Handzelek
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