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Mike Handzelek's CFB Week 1 Analysis/Review/Notes


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Sep 3, 2019
   
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Saturday, August 31, 2019 Mississippi vs. Memphis (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-110 Mississippi Rating: 9* Mike's Strongest CFB Play On The Board (WIN) The mushes are all OVER Memphis here strongly believing that Ole Miss can't score enough since they return just 3 offensive starters from the 18' campaign. Wrong! HC Matt Luke (3rd year HC-but 12th @ Ole Miss since he also coached as OC/OL) has assembled quite the coaching staff under him this season. Besides positions coach Jack Bicknell, Jr., the well-traveled Rich Rodriguez (master of the spread option) comes in as OC who back into his REAL niche after trying HC'ing stints @ Arizona, Michigan & West Virginia. The bigger story has to be a very solid DC in Mike McIntyre who comes over after 6 years as HC @ Colorado. McIntyre inherits a Rebels' "D" with 10 out of 11 starters (11 of top 12 tacklers) back from last year. Look for the Landshark "D" to re-surface again employing a suffocating 3-4 alignment led by ILB Mohamed Sanogu who was super-dominant last year ending the season with 112 tackles with 5.5 tackle for losses. In addition, athletic CB Jalen Jones returns after missing 11 of 12 games a season ago with a torn ACL. Look for them to be GAME READY against 3 main Memphis threats in QB Brady White, RB Patrick Taylor & WR Damonte Coxie. On the flip side, the Tigers have also showed they cannot sustain favorable margins as witnessed by them blowing 4 double-digit leads. They'll have a taller task to keep last season's offensive pace after losing all-purpose & 3rd-round pick of the Rams RB Darrell Henderson (2,200 yards of total offense & 25 TD's) to graduation. Their "D" was lit up for 65 points against SEC West foe Missouri before ending last season with a 37-34 loss to Wake Forest in the Birmingham Bowl. After crunching some numbers, we've found that the SEC is a very strong 5-1-1- ATS as underdogs including 4-0 ATS away in season-opening games against non-power 5 schools spanning the last 35 years! The kicker for us has to be the strong evidence that points out HC Mike Norvell's squad being 1-10 SU versus the SEC. Look for the Rebels to be FOCUSED & MOTIVATED since their 3-year bowl ban has now been lifted. Early on in CFB its pivotal to be on the right side @ the right number. So let's go to the Memphis Liberty Bowl (only a short 85 miles from Oxford) to play the MISSISSIPPI REBELS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my Strongest CFB Play On The Board! South Carolina vs. North Carolina (NCAAF) - 3:30 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -11/-110 South Carolina Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Earlybird Dependable (LOSS) Here's an afternoon start game that goes deep into the roots of both teams. You better have a good QB @ the helm to get your season opener off on the right foot. That criteria certainly fits South Carolina with senior QB Jake Bentley back after finishing 18' with 3,171 yards passing, 222 rushing yards & a 27-14 TD/INT ratio. Gamecocks' HC Will Muschamp had this game circled since knowing the former North Carolina & Texas HC Mack Brown has returned to Chapel Hill (was HC from 88' thru 97). For those who need refreshing, it was Muschamp (was a defensive coach under Brown) who was promised the Texas job after the 2010 National Championship but was shoved under the bus ( had to settle for Florida)! Look for defensive guru Muschamp & DC Trevaris Robinson to devise a solid game plan bent on dial-up pressures on the NC "Air Raid" offense led by freshman QB Sam Howell whose making his 1st CFB start. Look for the South Carolina 3-4 alignment to set up Bentley & Co. to some very favorable field position on more than a few series. Look for senior RB Rico Dowdle to get the majority of calls but will get a big boost from recent Clemson transfer Tavian Feaster. My bottom line points out that SC always jumps quickly out of the gate winning 18 out of their last 19 season openers (lost to Texas A&M in 14') dating back to 99' when they also lost to NC State. Besides the urgency to erase the bad taste in their mouths from getting shutout 28-0 to Virginia in the Belk Bowl last season, look for Muschamp to not let up once firmly in control. Remember, the SC offense (OC Bryan McClendon) scored frequently in the second half of the regular season after going to an uptempo offensive scheme. Now going up against a weak NC defense aids our cause even more! Let's go to the neutral site of Bank of America Stadium (home to the Carolina Panthers) in Charlotte to eagerly grab the SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (buying to a key - 9 1/2) as my 8* CFB Earlybird Dependable! NOTES: Wow! I was more than flabbergasted @ Rich Rod's offense only able to score 10 points on Memphis! At any rate, we'll take the "W" on the buy any day of the week. After grabbing the Strongest Play On The Board selection, it's was humble pie as South Carolina blew a 20-9 4th-quarter lead & fell outright to UNC 24-20. For another year, SC's HC will be called Mus-chump until he gets another shot @ Mack Brown. Get ready! It's NFL time starting with Thursday's Packers-Bears tilt @ Soldier Field. However, my earlybird play will be concentrated on a NFL Survivor selection on the PHILADELPHIA EAGLES for Sunday. Check back this weekend as I defend my VegasTopDogs Best NFL Winning Percentage title for the 2019-20 season. Let's get'em! Mike Handzelek's CFB 2019-20 Week 1 & Overall Record: 1-1 for 50% Mike Handzelek's Last 9 Overall Record All Sports: 8-1 for 89%
 


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