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Mike Handzelek's CBB Sweet 16 Round Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Mar 29, 2021
   
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Sunday, March 28, 2021 Florida State vs. Michigan (NCAAB) - 5:00 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-110 Florida State Rating: 9* Mike's CBB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) This is the round that both of these teams were ousted in the last NCAA tournament in 19'. Michigan is again in that familiar role of 2-point favorites (lost to 9th-seeded Texas Tech 63-44) while Florida State lost 72-58 to Gonzaga as 7-point dogs. There's a BIG gap in coaching experience with Leonard Hamilton (33rd year overall & 19th @ FSU) coaching his 27th tournament game while Juwan Howard (2nd year with the Wolves & overall) is skippering his 5th tournament contest. I feel Michigan is NOT a #1 seed without 6'7" Senior Forward Isaiah Livers in the lineup & it shows here. A change of venue is just what the doctor ordered for the Seminoles who come in ranking 6th in the country in FG percentage beyond the arc (39.0%). They also come into this game with revenge for a 58-54 Elite 8 exit after losing to Michigan in the regional final 3 seasons ago. Look for Florida State (with Guard M.J. Walker who was freshman when they lost that Elite 8 game) to shoot higher percentage shots & have a rebounding edge since being the tallest team in this tournament. Let's move over to the analytics. The Wolverines (just 4-3 SU their last 7) enter the Sweet 16 having a 1-2 SU record in this round the last 23 seasons & now face a deep FSU team near the top 20 in that category (bench minutes). Michigan backers forgot to dig deeper as the Big Ten is 3-8 SU in this round & a ticket-ripping 7-17 ATS in the Sweet 16 as a pick'em or favorite of 5 or less the last 21 seasons. My bottom lien points @ Leonard Hamilton whose 6-1 SU & 7-0 ATS as a post-season pick'em or a pup of less than 4. Keeping in mind Michigan is 246th in tempo, Hamilton is a take-me-to-the-window 17-0 SU in games when holding opponents to 75 points or less (FSU gives up 70.3 PPG). We'll gladly play the dog here (With 6'9" Super Frosh Scottie Barnes) considering the Seminoles are 14-4 ATS as a neutral court dog when getting 3 or less the past 24 seasons. The dagger has to be Florida State being a NCAA Tournament super-solid 7-1 ATS versus sub-.870 foes the past 31 years. We'll motor to Bankers Life Fieldhouse to play the FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES (buying to a strategic +5) as my 9* CBB Public Missed Perception Play! Oregon vs. USC (NCAAB) - 9:45 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -135 USC Rating: 8* Mike's Sunday Night Bailout Play (WIN) If you missed out on earlier plays, you can still grab a solid team in the finale. This matchup has a few stars but I'm most impressed with the domination by U.S.C.'s 7'0" Freshman Center Evan Mobley (16.5 PPG, 8.8 RPG, PAC-12's leading rebounder & in blocked shots, 2nd in FG%) on his opposition. He joins talents with his brother Isaiah, a 6'11" Junior Forward who can score & pound the boards as well (16 PPG, 6.5 RPG for the tournament). HC Andy Enfield (8th year @ Southern Cal & formerly @ Florida Gulf Coast-never won beyond this round) has been a cover machine in the NCAA Tournament coming into this one with a hard-to-ignore 9-0 record versus the number. His team is no slouch defensively ranking in the top 5 in defensive FG percentage (38.7). This will be the 126th meeting between the 2 with the Trojans besting the Ducks in their only meeting on February 22nd this season by a 72-58 count. For those who think this is a revenge game, let's look @ the end of the PAC-12 conference regular season. Oregon (14-4) by-passed their game with U.C.L.A. (COVID-19 protocol) guaranteeing the regular season crown over U.S.C.(15-5). Even though the Trojans won the only head-to-head, the Ducks were awarded the crown based on percentage. I feel this is more fuel on the fire & is a higher motivation than pure revenge from the 1st meeting. Before the Sweet 16, Oregon (22-6 SU) came in @ 50-1 to win it all while U.S.C. (24-7 SU) chimed in @ 30-1. According to the Ken Pom rankings, the Trojans rank 6th while the Ducks are way down the line @ 17th. The analytics tilt U.S.C.'s way as their a solid 17-8 ATS away from home playing against winning teams the past 2 seasons. My bottom line says even though Oregon's Chris Duarte & Omoruyi are consistent scorers, I feel the Trojans' "D" can hold them under their season averages. I respect Ducks' skipper Dana Altman (11th season @ OU) & the consistently successful campaigns (11 in a row there since coming from Creighton & 23rd straight combined). The only other active coaches who've achieved 23 or more in a row are: Duke's Mike Krzyzewski, Michigan State's Tom Izzo, Kansas's Bill Self & Syracuse's Jim Boeheim. But when Altman gets to the Sweet 16 Round, he's a vanilla 2-2 SU. I can't overlook the big gap on the boards with Oregon ranking 277th (33.1 RPG) & U.S.C. way up the ladder @ 23rd (39.5 RPG). Let's confidently go to Bankers Life Fieldhouse in Indy to play the U.S.C. TROJANS as my 8* Sunday Night Bailout Play! Saturday, March 27, 2021 Villanova vs. Baylor (NCAAB) - 5:15 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: -7.5/-110 Baylor Rating: 10* Mike's 10* Chalk Talk Play Of The Day (WIN) I have tremendous respect for 2-time National Champ & HC Jay Wright in his unique preparations when installed as an underdog. However, his team will start to feel the adversity & the void of not having Collin Gillespie as their floor general. HC Scott Drew (18th year with the 24-2 SU Bears) has a team with fresh legs (they got upset & look disinterested in the Big 12 Conference Tournament) that looks prime & ready to make a run to the Final Four that awaits the on April 3rd after 2 more wins. The Villanova Wildcats (18-6 SU) only turned the ball over 12 times this tournament. In reality, that number is deceiving since they faced 2 teams (Winthrop Eagles & North Texas Mean Green) that are ranked in the bottom quarter in forcing turnovers. This was also true their last 2 games in the Big East Tournament when they faced the Providence Friars & Georgetown Hoyas whose defenses were both turnover-challenged. Both of these teams (as of 3/23) ALSO have pretty end-of- the-spectrum odds @ winning it all with Baylor @ 9-2 while Villanova chimes in @ a whopping 40-1. Here's where we'll catch some mean analytics. When dealing with #1 seeds this round, we need to concentrate on those who are coming off an ATS win & not laying double-digits. The highest probability lies when taking these squads SU in the Sweet 16 round that qualifies. While these teams are a decent 15-7 ATS (not recommending a play ATS) in this situation, I feel the money is in the moneyline where these #1 seeds are on a jalapeno-like 18-4 SU (82%) run the last 22! We'll gladly side with the team with 3 super-solid guards in Jared Butler, Davion Mitchell & MaCio Teague. Let's go to the legendary Hinkle Fieldhouse to play the BAYLOR BEARS laying the number on the ML as my 10* Chalk Talk Play Of The Day! Oregon State vs. Loyola Chicago (NCAAB) - 2:40 PM EDT Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7/-110 Oregon State Rating: 9* Mike's Sweet 16 Earlybird (WIN) I feel this spread is way out of whack. The 26-4 SU Loyola Chicago Ramblers' (Missouri Valley Conference Champion) story is an excellent one with 101-year-old superfan Sister Jean Dolores Schmidt. However, analytics clearly show that 19-12 SU Oregon State should get under this number. Teams @ the start of this round have a good 6 to 7 days to prep before playing 2 games within a 3-day span. With extra prep time, I feel HC Wayne Tinkle (came to the Beavers in 14' after 14 years as head & assistant coach for the Montana U. Grizzlies) is a dangerous HC. This is especially true on a neutral floor (5-0 SU & ATS) as well as playing teams with at least a .600 winning percentage (also 5-0 ATS). While the scouting report points toward stopping Guard Ethan Thompson who stands out as the top scorer & floor leader, OSU has soon pretty big men down low with 7'1" Roman Silva, 6'10" Maurice Calloo & 6'10" Dearon Tucker. They match up nicely in combating Loyola's main cog in 6'9" Center Cameron Krutwig. The Beavers beat an excellent Oregon squad twice while also disposing U.S.C. once. My bottom line points @ a team 9-2 SU their last 11 & winners of 12 out of their last 13 ATS. Oregon State has been lights out coming off a game as a dog going a take-me-to-the-window 17-2 ATS. It's a rare thing to see a team cover & being favored by 6 1/2 or more coming off an upset. In the 4 times this has happened out of the past 53 upsets, only 1 team was fortunate enough to cover the number. No team has been favored by 7 or more since today with the Ramblers. The dagger for us has to be double-digit seeded underdogs being a very convincing 12-2-1 (85.7%) ATS the past 10 seasons. The PAC-12 have responded well as double-digit seeds overall are riding a 27-12 ATS run the last 12 seasons. Let's jaunt to Bankers Life Fieldhouse to play the OREGON STATE BEAVERS (buying to +10) as my 9* Sweet 16 Earlybird Play! Mike Handzelek's CBB Sweet 16 Record: 3-1 75% Mike Handzelek's 2021 CBB Overall Record: 9-5 64%
 


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