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Mike Handzelek's Bowls 2 With CFB Bowl Game Of Year DP Analysis/Review


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Jan 2, 2021
   
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Friday, January 01, 2021 Auburn vs. Northwestern (NCAAF) - 1:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 4.5/-115 Auburn Rating: 8* Mike's CFB Public Missed Perception Play (LOSS) These 2 met before in a bowl game back in 2010. It was an 38-35 OT thriller as NW failed on the last snap trying the old fumblerooskie play. This game loses some luster as the Auburn brass decided to cut ties with HC Gus Malzahn (the War Eagles lost $21 million in the buyout) last week. After 8 seasons, it wasn't enough compiling a 68-35 record including beating Alabama 3 times (2 of the last 4). They quickly made Bryan Harsin their 28th HC in the school's 127-year history. Harsin just completed his 7th year @ Boise State (his alma mater where he was QB from 95' to 99') going a successful 69-19 SU. For this game, the Tigers will be skippered by interim HC & DC Kevin Steele. No disrespect to HC Pat Fitzgerald (in his 15th season in Evanston) & his Wildcats (played Ohio State tough before losing 22-10 in the Big Ten Championship) but they aren't that successful when dressed up in the favorite role. Since 2010, the Purple & White have gone a cold 27-33-2 as chalk. I'm giving the opt-outs a wash as both teams will be missing some starters. However, the NFL buzz has been a distraction to Northwestern with talks of nabbing Fitzgerald away from the collegiate ranks. He's taken on the SEC twice in bowl games the past 4 times in a bowl losing to Tennessee 45-6 in the Outback Bowl in 15' but nipping Kentucky 24-23 in the Music City Bowl in 17'. The public doesn't realize that backing NW carries a premium since they've gone 8-1-2 ATS since late last season. My bottom line says I'll take the points since I STILL have Auburn QB Bo Nix behind center & hopefully talented RB Tank Bigsby (still listed as questionable @ press time) in the backfield. Analytics show the SEC shining bright in New Year's Six bowl games. When installed as underdogs, the SEC has gone a take-me-to-the-window 15-3 ATS! I believe Tigers' DC Kevin Steele has enough time to prepare for the NW offense (6-2 SU but only out-gain opponents by 10 YPG) who will attempt to spread it out & look for smaller positive yardage plays. Because of that philosophy, we'll up the ante & grab a line OVER a key number to force NW to practically win by double-digits. Let's roll to Camping World Stadium in Orlando for the Citrus Bowl to play the AUBURN TIGERS (buying to a key + 7 1/2) as my CFB Public Missed Perception Play! Ohio State vs. Clemson (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 7.5/-110 Ohio State Rating: 8* National Championship Semi-Final Deep Edge Play (WIN) No matter if every sharp wants to admit it or not, Ohio State QB Justin Fields is in a "MUST PERFORM/EXECUTE" role versus Clemson & probable NFL 1st-round, 1st-pick to Jacksonville QB Trevor Lawrence. The post-season head-to-head meetings between these 2 schools goes deeper than Clemson winning 3 straight under HC Dabo Swinney (13', 16' & 19'). There's the matter of the 1978 Gator Bowl that started it all off when the legendary Ohio State HC Woody Hayes was so frustrated that he actually punched Clemson NG Charlie Bauman in the throat after he intercepted an Art Schlichter pass that preserved a 17-15 Tigers' win & cover. OSU's AD Hugh Hindman (ironically a former assistant coach under him) fired Hayes the next day ending his 28-year tenure in Columbus. Besides the quadruple revenge, Fields is still haunted by last year's 29-23 loss to the Orange & Purple since OSU let a 16-0 lead slip away @ the Fiesta Bowl. The Buckeyes amassed 516 total yards of offense (Clemson had 417) in that game. Numbers show Clemson's dominance in the conference championship & post-season since 2011 where they take a 14-3 ATS mark. However, this line is adjusted accordingly since a high percentage of the mushes were super-eager to roll with Clemson based on latest eye tests. My bottom line starts with another motivational factor. After examining the final coaches' poll ranking by Tigers' HC Swinney, he pretty much told Ohio State that they don't even belong in the top 10 (Dabo ranked them 11th). When asked about the ranking, Swinney said, "I'm an equal opportunity guy. To me, right is right!" This is the type of locker room bulletin board material that makes a team that much better entering in. Let's look @ some deep analytics into the performance of underdogs in ACC versus the Big Ten bowl games since 99'. The Big Ten has gone 17-8 SU & a jalapeno-like 19-5-1 ATS the last 21 seasons. Remember, OSU is back @ full strength after missing some key players out due to COVID-19 protocol for the Big Ten 22-10 championship game with Northwestern. Even though Clemson's Dabo Swinney is an excellent coach, this number raises another red flag. As a favorite of 8 or less versus teams with a better SU record, his teams sit just 4-4 SU & a ticket-ripping 3-5 versus the number. On the flip side of the coin, Ohio State's HC Ryan Day is 22-1 SU there & a perfect 14-0 SU taken on an opponent with a lesser winning percentage. I believe OSU can contain Lawrence & RB Travis Etienne since their defense held their opponents under their season average overall, limited them to 97 yards rushing (3.4 YPC) & recorded around 3 sacks per game. Let's go to the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans for the Sugar Bowl CFP Semifinal to play the OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (buying to + 8 1/2) as my national Championship Semi-Final Deep Edge Play! Thursday, December 31, 2020 West Virginia vs. Army (NCAAF) - 4:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -255 West Virginia Rating: 10* Mike's 10* (Double Play) Strongest Bowl Game Of The Year (WIN) & (WIN) Army is usually always good with the points right? They'll be pressed to keep up with West Virginia (their 1st meeting with them since 1961) since the Mountaineers have experience in stuffing the run & have a few weeks to prepare for it. WVU DC Vic Koenning has had experience with the option (versus Georgia Southern in the Sun Belt Conference) while coaching @ Troy with his current HC. HC Jeff Monken's Army entry is feeling pretty fulfilled after winning the Commander-In-Chief Trophy & they will be very hard-pressed to re-gain that competitive edge they had a few weeks back. West Virginia has a 5-4 SU record but that's not indicative of how good they are. HC Neal Brown was highly successful on bowls while coaching @ Troy State winning all 3 bowls (2016-18') while there. If the Mountaineers get ahead by a convincing margin, I don't think the Black Knights have a good enough passing game to catch up. We'll romp down to Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium in Memphis to play the WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS for the "W" as my 10* (Double Play) Strongest Bowl Game Of The Year Play! Mississippi State vs. Tulsa (NCAAF) - 12:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 2/-115 Mississippi State Rating: 9* Mike's CFB Earlybird Bowler (WIN) There's 2 things I love about the Bulldogs here. Their coach has been here before & has loads of experience to pass onto his players. The youthful movement has paid off for HC Mike Leach as newly-inserted freshman QB Will Rogers has averaged 304 passing yards a game the last 5 & has a very dependable WR in Jaden Walley who finished the season with 4 straight 100+ YPG receiving. Tulsa may look the part @ 6-2 SU. They just don't play the caliber of football 3-7 SU Mississippi State has taken on. We'll gladly go to Amon G. Carter Stadium in Forth Worth for the Armed Forces Bowl to play the MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (buying to + 3 1/2) as my 8* CFB Earlybird Bowler. Wednesday, December 30, 2020 Florida vs. Oklahoma (NCAAF) - 8:00 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Point Spread: 9.5/-110 Florida Rating: 8* Mike's Heavy Opt-Out Value Play (LOSS) Everyone's talking about Florida's 16 players out for this game. The real facts also point out that Oklahoma has 11! Unless Kyle Trask does not start (making this a NO PLAY), the Gators scream value here. My bottom line points toward some serious analytics. In the past 18 seasons, when the SEC goes up against the Big 12 in bowl games of single digits, the Big 12 teams are a have-to-fade 8-25 SU & 8-24-1 ATS. Here's something to take into some serious consideration. SEC teams in bowl games where the total is 64 or higher have gone a dominating 15-6 both SU & ATS. The oddsmakers KNOW that Oklahoma is a perfect 4-0 the last 4 years playing inside "Jerry World". The line is over-adjusted because of those trends. Dan Mullen has a 10-3 edge over Lincoln Riley in bowl experience. That will come into play if Mullen's squad is getting some serious points. Let's go to the Cotton Bowl @ AT&T Stadium in Arlington to play the FLORIDA GATORS (buying to +11 1/2) as my 8* Heavy Opt-Out Value Play! Tuesday, December 29, 2020 Oklahoma State vs. Miami Florida (NCAAF) - 5:30 PM EST Premium Pick Pick: Money Line: -112 Oklahoma State Rating: 9* Mike's Mushes Nightmare Steam Play Of The Week (WIN) Make no mistake about it! Miami, Fla. is DEFLATED after dropping 62-26 decision to North Carolina. That loss dropped the Hurricanes from consideration of going to a New Year's Six Bowl. Since then, Miami, Fla. has now lost their starting DE's in Jaelen Phillips & Quincy Roche who've opted out among a plethora of Hurricanes to do so. Keep in mind that the Green & Orange "D" just gave up 778 yards before they started losing people. Yes, on the flip side of the coin Oklahoma State RB Chuba Hubbard has also opted out to get ready for the pros. I feel his replacement Dezmon Jackson (5.7 YPC) has done the job @ providing offensive balance. This was proven in their last game as the Cowboys & HC Mike Gundy adapted pretty well proving that better balance with a 42-3 win @ Baylor as favorites of - 6 1/2. My bottom line points @ some nifty analytics. OSU HC Gundy has been slighted by oddsmakers in the post-season as witnessed by his 4-0 spread mark his last 4. In complete contrast to this, Miami, Fla. has lost their last 2 bowl games in embarrassing fashion losing to Wisconsin 35-3 in the 2018 Pinstripe Bowl (favored by 2 1/2) & taking it on the chin to Louisiana Tech 14-0 in last year's Independence Bowl (favored by 7). They have a 20% success rate over their last 10 bowls (2-8 ATS). My bottom line says mushes look a lot @ records in deciding a bowl game side. However, the Hurricanes' 8-2 SU was compiled with a defense still intact. My X-Factor here is HC Mike Gundy. Numbers (compiled the last 5 years) clearly show coaches who have coached in 10 or more bowls that the coach on the other sidelines have won 26 of 38 SU(68.4) AND covered 27 of 38 (71.1%). Let's shove off for the Cheez-It Bowl @ Camping World Stadium in Orlando to play 9* the OKLAHOMA STATE COWBOYS as my Mushes' Nightmare Steam Play Of The Week! Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Overall Bowl Record: 6-3 67% Mike Handzelek's 2020-21 CFB Overall Seasonal Record: 31-28 53%
 


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