By Freddy Wills | January 26, 2010

Michigan State at Michigan (4, 131)

Tonight’s game of the night will be a Big-10 rivalry game which will tip off on Tuesday on ESPN between Michigan and Michigan State. Michigan has been playing tough opponents; in fact this will be their fourth straight opponent that is ranked in the Top 25! Michigan lost the first two in conference between Wisconsin and Purdue, but shocked Uconn at home winning by 5.

All about Michigan

Michigan believe it or not returned 4 starters from last year, a team that won 21 games. They were picked as a preseason Top 15 team and have not lived up to expectations.

After the 3-0 start they have gone 7-9. They are just 3-7 ATS as a favorite, but have been perfect when they are under dogs at 5-0 ATS. Michigan State, beat Michigan last year on this court 54-42.

The Spartans are 7-0 in the conference so far this year. MSU the preseason #2 team returned 3 starters from last years 31 win team. Coach Tom Izzo always has his team in contention and nothing looks different from this years 17-3 squad.

Stats, do they tell it all?

When you look at the stats between these two they appear to be one sided. I have put together a list of their ranks out of the 347 teams.

Offensive Field Goal Percentage:

Michigan State (15) 45.5 Michigan (217) 42.2

Defensive Field Goal Percentage:

Michigan State (34) 39.7 Michigan (210) 44.0

Rebound Margin:

Michigan State (3) +10.7 Michigan (275) –3.3

The stats weigh heavily in Michigan State’s favor, but as we have already seen Michigan plays much better at home and when they are under dogs. Tonight they will be home dogs @ +4.5 and I expect that line to rise by game time being that it is on ESPN. My first lean here was Michigan because they will be the ESPN home dog. A strategy that works well year in and year out in college football has not been tested by me in a while in basketball.

Trends:

Michigan St

• Spartans are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a road favorite of 0.5-6.5. • Spartans are 23-3-2 ATS in their last 28 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5. • Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. • Spartans are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. • Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win. • Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. • Spartans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 vs. Big Ten. • Spartans are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. • Spartans are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. • Spartans are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 road games. • Spartans are 6-18-2 ATS in their last 26 Tuesday games.

Michigan

• Wolverines are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog. • Wolverines are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. • Wolverines are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. • Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. • Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten. • Wolverines are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. • Wolverines are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. • Wolverines are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. • Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. • Wolverines are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
 

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