The NFL is bet by more people than any other American professional sport. Most that bet on it, over 95% lose money, but they are drawn into the sea of green, that soon turns into red ink. There is a reason for that. Most have a memory that lingers for just what they saw the previous week, and forgetting everything else. All week long they watch the stuffed suits on the various broadcast networks, give their take, how good so and so was, how bad so and so was, and they feed your brain full of garbage! They have no idea what they are talking about in terms of ATS, and those 3 letters define the NFL from everyone watching and listening to them. They set you up to lose. Personally, I watch no network stuffed suits talking as if they know something, because they are cluless, not some of them, all of them, they will lead you to the poor house, and cause you to rethink your choices, or help you make the wrong choice, none of which is good.

The NFL is a contrarian league, period. What you think is going to happen, is less likely to happen than you believe I am a master at finding weaknesses within the market place, in places noone else dares to look, or frankly understands enough about the psychology, and mental part of the game, that noone ever considers enough. Look, everyone has an opinion in the NFL, they watch it, study it, and lose to it, over 95% of them. Why? Because they don't know where to look for the gold, and the market inefficiencies, nor do they grasp the intangible factors that mean something. They are too busy looking at what everyone else looks for, ypp, rushing yards allowed, good defense vs poor offense, they will kil them. I hate to cue you in but the NFL isn't about stats unless your a stuffed shirt on a TV show pretending to be an expert, and you drive your audience like a cult into believing!

The NFL is about a mental mindset, who has the intangible edges on any given week, not who has the better stats. Think about it, if all these stat edges won, wouldn't every game be predictable, and 95% would win instead of lose for the year? I will drive my point, THEY ARE USELESS! So here is a small but valuable piece of evidence.

What do you hear about the team's that dominated the week before, or in fact the teams that stunk up the joint? How about a team that lost to the pointspread by 25 or more? How would you like to listen to the stuffed suits tell you how they have problems on both sides of the ball, the coach is on the hot seat, the fans are going nuts, the talk shows are buzzing about how bad they are. You know who is listening, and listening chomping at the bit? Mr. oddsmaker! He is goig to inflate the number on the team that got the crap kicked out of them, so when you play against them next week, they kick your ass, because they are pissed off listening to all the crap from the media, they have pride, and can't wait to get out there again, etc. There isn't any stats in attitude, desire, hunger. etc. except 67-30-3 ATS. Give a team reason to show up, bring them into a game off a 25 point loss against the pointspread. They kill it the next week! They are 67-30-3 ATS that is 69% winners since 2003!

There isn't a handicapper in this world that wants you to know this kind of stuff. This passes the log liklihood test nulling the hypothesis of a fair bet, meaning there is a market inefficiency present, in an otherwise efficient market. It also passes the log liklihood test for profitability.

Ths is what my newsletter subscribers get weekly, in depth analysis of bnafide log liklihood tested systems for both profitabiity and nulling the hypothesis of a fair bet.

Submitted by MREAST @ mreastsportspicks.com
 

Terron Chapman
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