The key to having a winning baseball season is finding value in the money line offered by the sportsbook and taking advantage of it. Value is simply the difference between the price being offered and the true chances of a team winning the game. I concentrate on finding value with underdogs. Amateur bettors just can’t comprehend it is possible to be profitable when losing more games than you win. The public instinctively looks to bet on favorites over underdogs. They feel that a -200 favorite is a sure winner. Just remember bad teams will win 40% of their games and great teams won’t win 70% of the time. The best thing about playing underdogs is you don’t have to have a high winning percentage to make a huge long-term profit. If you play two underdogs, you only need to hit one of the two to profit, where if you played two favorites, you need both to cash to end up positive.
Underdog situations to look for:
Every MLB team is excited to start a new season. Every player thinks his team has a chance of playing in the World Series this year. Every team will play their hardest the first three months of the season so we get tremendous value betting on underdogs early in every MLB season. Look for teams that have lost the first two games of a series and find themselves the underdog in the third game.
We will get max effort early in the season in this situation.
The MLB season is very long and grueling with lots of long road trips. These road trips get more and more grueling as the season wears on. Every team is excited to get back home after one of these difficult stints on the road. We look to take a home dog after one of these trips as we will be getting an excited and happy team ready to give max effort for the home crowd.
These two situation are just something to look for. You must use all your other handicapping techniques to base your final wagers on. You should be able to use the money line to your advantage if you are betting on underdogs and small favorites. While this certainly doesn’t guarantee profits, it does make it much easier to win long-term, especially because there are so many games to choose from each week.
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