Chances are the Philadelphia Phillies will not win the National League pennant.
They might have the most talent of anyone in the senior circuit, but there are
15 other teams in the hunt, and as they say, anything can happen. Even the MLB
betting public understands; the Phillies are 8-5 to win the pennant and return
to the World Series, shorter than any other NL team, but paying out higher than
even money.
What the Phillies have done, and impressively so, is give
themselves the best chance of any team to win – and not just the NL pennant, but
the World Series too at 13-4. This is no overnight sensation, either. The
Phillies have been to the playoffs each of the last four seasons, winning the
World Series in 2008. But they've also increased their win total every
year:
2006: 85-77, -6.50 units
2007: 89-73, 11.15 units
2008:
92-70, 4.06 units
2009: 93-69, 4.47 units
2010: 97-65, 9.71
units
Philadelphia has soaked in the profits year after year by
constantly adding talent to its developing core of players, most notably first
baseman Ryan Howard (.859 OPS, 31 HR in 2010), second baseman Chase Utley (.832
OPS) and shortstop Jimmy Rollins (.694 OPS). The biggest addition this year, and
the biggest story of the offseason, was the signing of 2008 AL Cy Young winner
Cliff Lee (3.18 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) for his second tour of duty with the Phillies.
Nobody can touch Philadelphia's front four of Roy Halladay (2.44 ERA, 1.04
WHIP), Lee, Cole Hamels (3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP) and Roy Oswalt (2.76 ERA, 1.03
WHIP).
The only problem for the Phillies is that there are 162 games
between now and the postseason. Philadelphia's pitching was mostly unaffected by
the injury bug last year, although Lee missed the first month of the 2010
campaign with the Seattle Mariners. There are bigger problems on offense.
Rollins may or may not bounce back near his 2007 MVP levels (.875 OPS, 41 SB)
after missing half the season with calf and hamstring injuries. Utley (knee)
will begin the season on the injured list. Both men are 32 years old; Howard is
31. If they can't stay healthy, there's no baseball betting value in the
Phillies.
Then again, Philadelphia is the only large-market NL team with
a proven front office. Here are the projected 2011 salaries for the richest
teams in the league:
1. Chicago Cubs: $146.6 million
2. Philadelphia
Phillies: $142.7 million
3. New York Mets: $136.0 million
4. San Francisco
Giants: $98.6 million
The Cubs (16-1 to win the pennant) and Mets (22-1)
have certainly suffered more than their fair share of injuries in recent years,
but that's not the only reason they've failed to convert dollars into wins. The
Cubs have been adrift since their 2009 sale to the Ricketts family, while the
Mets have pulled the plug on general manager Omar Minaya after a six-year
roller-coaster ride. Former Oakland Athletics executive Sandy Alderson could
bring some stability as Minaya's replacement, but the Mets are still in danger
of capsizing if owner Fred Wilpon loses the $1-billion suit filed against him in
the wake of the Bernie Madoff scandal.
Eventually, we get around to the
World Series champions. The Giants (6-1) found life without Barry Bonds quite
difficult at first, but they rebuilt around strong pitching, which every team
aspires to do – the Giants just happened to be the ones who nabbed two-time Cy
Young winner Tim Lincecum (3.43 ERA, 1.27 WHIP) and Matt Cain (3.14 ERA, 1.08
WHIP) as first-round prospects. They also stumbled upon a possible breakout star
in Jonathan Sanchez (3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP), taken in the 27th round of the 2004
draft. There doesn't appear to be much competition in the NL West this year, so
the Giants should have a fairly smooth ride to the playoffs. They've edged back
up from 12-1 to 11-1 on the World Series futures market.
The competition
figures to be tighter in the NL Central, where the Milwaukee Brewers are 19-10
to win the division, followed by the Cincinnati Reds at 2-1 and the St. Louis
Cardinals at 3-1. The Cardinals have lost Adam Wainwright for the season to
Tommy John surgery, so they're the odd man out in what should be a close race
between the Brewers and Reds. Milwaukee has the shorter World Series odds at
16-1 after adding pitchers Zack Greinke (4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP), the 2009 AL Cy
Young winner, and Shaun Marcum (3.64 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). Cincinnati, the defending
AL Central champion, is 25-1 to win the World Series. Not likely to happen, but
at least that's nearly eight times what you could make on Philadelphia.
| Kyle Hunter | |
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