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MLB Betting: Money Making Moves

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By: BoDog Sportsbook
Date: Aug 3, 2008
   
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The MLB trade deadline has come and gone. How have the big moves affected bettors?

Every year, the MLB trade deadline is like an M. Night Shyamalan movie: all buildup, no payoff.

Well, every year, except this one.

The talk of big moves on the horizon weren't just the desperate ramblings of some MLB insider. Parity has made the 2008 World Series attainable for a lot of teams, and they made plenty of moves to make sure they were in good position come October.

Boston finally called Manny Ramirez's yearly bluff and shipped him to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Milwaukee improved their rotation only to be cock-blocked by National League Central division rival Chicago shortly after. Even the L.A. Angels made a monster move, and they never do anything.

But how will these big trades affect bettors? Bodog Nation outlines which transactions could make you the most money, which won't and which won't change much at all.

L.A. Angels of Anaheim

Trade: 1B Casey Kotchman and RP Stephen Marek to Atlanta
Acquire: 1B Mark Teixeira

Putting up just 4.57 runs per game (ranked 18th) and giving up 3.87 (ranked seventh) has given the Angels a horrible record versus the total (40-60-7) and a mediocre record versus the runline (57-50), despite having the best overall record in baseball (67-40).

The addition of Teixeira will instantly give them ammo to drastically improve in both areas.

Ranking 10th in RBIs while hitting .281, Teixeira commands respect at the plate. He’ll likely bat ahead of Vladimir Guerrero and Torii Hunter which will give him, Guerrero and Hunter more hittable pitches, equaling more Angels RBIs.

Verdict: Money Move

Chicago Cubs

Trade: RP Sean Gallagher, OF Matt Murton, 2B/OF Eric Patterson and OF Matt Spencer to Oakland
Acquire: SP Rich Harden and SP/RP Chad Gaudin

The Milwaukee Brewers basically said, "We want the NL Central now," with the addition of C.C. Sabathia, so the Cubs grabbed two great arms, especially Harden's (6-2, 2.04 ERA), to stay a step ahead.

Since Harden's arrival, the Cubs have been rolling, winning their last five in a row (including a four-game sweep of the Brewers) by a margin of 4.6 runs. Although the Cubs are 3-2 with Harden as the starter, he's given up just four runs in his five outings. The Cubs were already a great bet, but as long as their offense stays hot, they'll be easy money whenever he’s on the mound.

Verdict: Money Move

Boston Red Sox

Trade: OF Manny Ramirez to L.A. Dodgers
Acquire: OF Jason Bay (from Pittsburgh)

Guess Manny was being Manny way too much for the Red Sox's liking. They made the shrewdest move of the trade deadline and dealt one of the Red Sox's greatest players ever.

On paper, the swap looks even: Manny averaged .299 with 20 HRs and 68 RBIs, while Bay put up 22 HRs and 64 RBIs while averaging .282. On top of that, Bay is only 30. However, it remains to be seen if Bay can produce as consistently as Ramirez did in Boston or if he’s capable of carrying a team like Ramirez did so many times this year.

In the end, this move wasn't about improving; it was about getting the nut out of the dugout. At best, their numbers will remain the same.

Verdict: Mediocre Move

Pittsburgh Pirates

Trade: OF Xavier Nady and P Damaso Marte to New York Yankees; OF Jason Bay to Boston
Acquire: P Ross Ohlendorf, OF Jose Tabata, P Jeff Karstens, P Dan McCutchen (from New York Yankees); 3B Andy Laroche and P Bryan Morris (from Los Angeles Dodgers)

We understand where Pittsburgh was coming from in this situation. Despite having one of the best offensive outfields in the majors, the Pirates were still eight games below .500, so they remedied their disappointment by dumping as many salaries as possible.

However, the trade of Nady and Bay directly affects the one reason the Pirates were profitable for bettors: the total. Pittsburgh, despite their struggles, were money when betting the over, going 62-39-7 thus far. With only Nate McLouth (.279 BA, 22 HR and 72 RBIs) left to shoulder the offense, expect those numbers to dip significantly, killing the last reason to even think about putting money on them.

Verdict: Bad Move

Milwaukee Brewers

Trade: OF Matt LaPorta, P Zach Jackson and P Rob Bryson to Cleveland
Acquire: SP C.C. Sabathia

Before the Brewers were plowed by the Cubs, they were flying with Sabathia on the roster. They won eight in a row at one point and have been nearly flawless as a wager when the chubby right-hander takes the mound, going 4-1 overall.

The Brewers are a power-hitting team that dealt with mediocre pitching. They instantly become a solid bet on the moneyline and the runline when a reliable ace like Sabathia takes the mound. Just avoid them when they play the Cubs.

Verdict: Money Move

Chicago White Sox

Trade: P Nick Masset and OF Danny Richar to Cincinnati
Acquire: OF Ken Griffey Jr.

White Sox 1B Paul Konerko has been dancing north and south of the Mendoza line since April; the White Sox made a move to replace him.

Griffey's acquisition will allow the Sox to move him to center field and Nick Swisher into Konerko's spot at first. It's a smart move for a team with a slumping vet. However, the Sox were already a top five offense. Unless Griffey rewinds to his Seattle days, this won't affect their moneyline, total or runline record much.

Verdict: Mediocre Move

New York Yankees

Trade: P Ross Ohlendorf, OF Jose Tabata, P Jeff Karstens and P Dan McCutchen to Pirates; P Kyle Farnsworth to Detroit
Acquire: OF Xavier Nady and P Damaso Marte (from Pittsburgh); Ivan Rodriguez (from Detroit)

When it came to offense, the Yankees have always been the gun in a knife fight: boasting All-Star bats from top to bottom every year that are bent on pounding their enemies into submission.

Unfortunately, their potent lineup has been riddled with injuries. They lost five-time All-Star Jorge Posada until 2009, and injured left fielder Hideki Matsui is on the 15-day disabled list.

Enter Rodriguez and Nady. Rodriguez is no longer putting up anything close to his 'roid-enhanced numbers (.295 BA, 5 HR and 32 RBIs), but he's still one of the better hitting catchers in the majors. And Nady (.328, 15 HR and 61 RBIs), like almost every Pirate outfielder, is having the best year of his career.

These moves are great for a team that has had two significant losses on offense, but from a betting perspective, you have to wonder if it'll make a dent in their performance versus the moneyline and runline.

The Yanks rank 12th in runs scored and 13th in runs allowed. Nady and Rodriguez should help in the runs department, but it's debatable that it'd be enough to make a significant difference for bettors.

Verdict: Mediocre Move

L.A. Dodgers

Trade: C Carlos Santana and P Jon Meloan to Cleveland; Andy Laroche and P Bryan Morris to Pittsburgh
Acquire: 3B Casey Blake (from Cleveland) and OF Manny Ramirez (from Boston)

The Dodgers were having one of the best rotations and bullpens in the bigs, but they were hindered by a lineup that would have trouble hitting a softball. They rank 24th in runs scored, relying on James Loney (.296 BA, 9 HR and 60 RBIs) and Matt Kemp (.295 BA, 12 HR and 57 RBIs) to carry the load.

Blake and Ramirez instantly solve their hitting issues. Manny... is Manny: an uncontrollable future Hall-of-Famer that's still producing like it was the 1990s. Blake's numbers aren't eye-popping (.295, 11 HR and 58 RBIs), but if you consider what they were getting from their third baseman (Blake DeWitt numbers and Laroche combined for 41 RBIs in 339 at-bats), it's a drastic improvement.

The Dodgers are just one game over .500, but are one game back of the NL West. These moves should make them favorites to grab the crown as well as improve their record versus the moneyline.

Verdict: Money Move

Detroit Tigers

Trade: C Ivan Rodriguez to New York Yankees
Acquire: P Kyle Farnsworth

The Tigers got rid of a big price tag in Ivan Rodriguez. However, Farnsworth won't make a dent in their 23rd ranked ERA.

Farnsworth is a solid reliever (1-2, 3.65 ERA) but he isn't the answer to their horrible bullpen and rotation. The Tigers will continue to be what they have been since April: a colossal disappointment for bettors.

Verdict: Bad Move


 

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