So who's going to win the American League this year: the New York Yankees, or
the Boston Red Sox? They're the evil two-headed monster of the junior circuit,
stocked with the kind of talent that only the top two payrolls in the major
leagues can buy. This year, the Red Sox have the shortest World Series
odds of any AL team at 5-1, followed by the Yankees at 7-1 as we go to
press.
This doesn't sit well with Yankees fans. Their team was the
original World Series favorite (as usual) at 4-1, but New York had an unusually
disappointing offseason, failing to land either of their top two free-agent
targets. Cliff Lee went to the Philadelphia Phillies, who subsequently became
the new World Series faves at 13-4. And Carl Crawford went to the Red Sox, who
cut their championship odds in half from 10-1 at the open.
Boston didn't
just manage to play keep-away with Crawford (.851 OPS, 47 SB), arguably the best
overall outfielder in the majors. The Red Sox also swung a deal with the San
Diego Padres for first baseman and three-time All-Star Adrian Gonzalez (.904
OPS, 31 HR). And not to be overlooked, the Sox also gave their bullpen a
much-needed boost with righties Bobby Jenks (3.40 career ERA) and Dan Wheeler
(3.84 career ERA). Boston missed the playoffs last year because of thin pitching
and injury problems in general; better health and better production are expected
this year, which is why the Sox have the MLB odds in
their corner.
The Yankees didn't come away completely empty-handed this
winter. They picked up three useful players in catcher Russell Martin (.679 OPS)
and relievers Rafael Soriano (2.73 career ERA) and Pedro Feliciano (3.31 career
ERA). The Yankees also signed a boatload of veteran free agents to minor-league
contracts, hoping some would stick with the big team. Freddy Garcia (4.64 ERA,
1.38 WHIP) has reportedly done just that by winning the fifth-starter position
in New York's patchwork rotation, made thinner by the retirement of Andy
Pettitte.
Where does this leave the team with the best record in the
American League last year? Here's how the AL East ended up, with the Tampa Bay
Rays on top and the Red Sox on the outside of the playoffs looking in:
1.
Tampa Bay: 96-66, 2.94 units
2. New York: 94-67, –5.61 units
3. Boston:
89-73, –3.35 units
The Rays have been one of the top franchises in the
majors over the past three years, winning two division titles and an AL pennant
since third baseman Evan Longoria (.879 OPS, 22 HR) and ace pitcher David Price
(2.72 ERA, 1.19 WHIP) joined the team. But Tampa Bay has been lost in the
shuffle this year at 20-1 to win the World Series. Crawford and Wheeler have
both signed with Boston, and Soriano is with the Yankees, but at least the Rays
were able to add a pair of familiar ex-Bostonians in Manny Ramirez (.870 OPS)
and Johnny Damon (.756 OPS).
The MLB futures market suggests we'll also
see some competitive races in the other two AL divisions, unlike last year. The
AL Central figures to be a tug-of-war between the defending champion Minnesota
Twins and the Chicago White Sox, each available at 20-1 to win the World Series.
Not far behind are the Detroit Tigers at 28-1; they've added former Boston
catcher Victor Martinez (.844 OPS), but Detroit's rotation is thinner now
without Jeremy Bonderman and Armando Galarraga.
The Texas Rangers won the
AL West in a cakewalk last year, and then they won the pennant. What can they do
for an encore? The Rangers are 18-1 to take that extra step and win the World
Series, and they made that task easier with the signing of third baseman Adrian
Beltre (.919 OPS), whose offense should translate well from Fenway Park to
Rangers Ballpark. Losing Lee to the Phillies was a considerable blow, but
Brandon Webb is another former Cy Young winner who is looking for a bounce-back
season after missing nearly two years following shoulder surgery. The young and
improving Rangers figure to have the edge in the division over the Los Angeles
Angels, who sit at 25-1 to win the World Series after rolling the dice on
ex-Toronto outfielder Vernon Wells (.847 OPS). May the best team win.
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