With college, teams nearing the finish line of the regular season I decided to investigate how teams perform against the spread during the latter half of the season. Of course, there are endless possibilities for one to investigate and I have found some very powerful late season gems including the one I will share with you today.

Late in the season road underdogs of more than a touchdown have struggled when coming off a huge upset win. Even winning when they were not supposed to come close to a victory does little to convince the oddsmakers they are legit as they install them once again as a substantial underdog in their next contest.

System: From Game 10 on, play AGAINST a road underdog of more than 7 points off a SU win as a conference underdog of more than 16 points. The system has a record of 9-0 ATS since 1988 covering the spread by an average of 12.9 points per game.

Having defeated a team where they were such a large underdog brings high emotion along with mental and physical fatigue. In researching this situation, I found these road underdogs do not work as hard preparing the following week and the combination of factors translates into a poor performance in their next game.

The Oklahoma State Cowboys entered Jack Trice Stadium in Ames Iowa back on November 18 ranked #2 in the nation and staring at a possible shot at a national title. Their opponent on that night was the Iowa State Cyclones who were installed as 26.5-point underdogs against the red-hot Cowboys.

The Cyclones prior to that game were 0-56-2 when facing teams that were ranked sixth or better in the AP poll at the time they played them. At the end of regulation, the score was tied at 24 points. Iowa State pulled off the impossible in the second overtime defeating the Cowboys 37 to 31.

Iowa State has posted a record of 8-3 ATS when installed as a double-digit conference underdog. Included in those victories were major upsets of Nebraska, Texas, and Texas Tech and of course the most recent one against Oklahoma State. The key here for us they are 0-3 ATS after those three monster upset victories. Our system also tells us they will not catch lightning in a bottle again on Saturday.

With all the system parameters met, this week’s Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualifies Iowa State as our play AGAINST team when they face the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday in Norman. Play ON the Oklahoma Sooners minus the points over the Iowa State Cyclones.

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