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Homerun Derby prediction


By: Frank Jordan
Date: Jul 8, 2019
   
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This homerun derby is a collection of young guys with the exception of hometown guy Carlos Santana who is the only player over 30. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has the fewest homeruns with just eight and also the fewest at bats with just 225, but does bring the youth and raw power like his father who is a previous winner of this event. Another rookie Pete Alonso comes in with the most homeruns at 30 with Josh Bell a close second at 27. There are five right handed batters, one lefty and two switch hitters who will probably bat left handed.

Chapman has the best chance of winning this with no pressure leading in and no overthinking having been selected yesterday as a replacement for Yelich who has a back issue and bowed out of this event. Look for Chapman to edge out Guerrero who will tire trying to hit mammoth shots as Chapman wins by two to advance. Bregman and Pederson will be the most interesting and compelling match up of the first round going down to the wire and possibly a swing off with the lefty Pederson edging out by one. The third match up is the oddest one with a rookie with the most homeruns against the oldest veteran with the second fewest who will happen to have the home crowd at his back. In the end though it will be Alonso with the effortless swing pushing across more homeruns and winning by five. The final match up is Bell against Acuna Jr. and this will be the only landslide win as Bell will simply have too much power for Acuna to keep up with as Bell wins by seven.

The second round match ups pit Chapman against Pederson and Alonso against Bell. In a battle of West coasters it will be close as the high wall may rob some homers from Chapman, but he will have enough to get past Pederson who fades in the second part of the second round leading to Chapman winning by three. Alonso and Bell will have monster second rounds as young guys with plenty of energy with Bell edging out the rookie as he gets a couple extra hitting from the left side avoiding that higher wall in left advancing by two.

The Finals will have Chapman of Oakland against Bell of Pittsburgh in a dandy of a showdown that will be neck and neck until the final minute after using his time out Chapman pulls away to win 20-18 adding one extra for good measure. Enjoy the power and the action of the Homerun Derby!

One other side note for All-Star festivities is MLB should add in a speed contest with five categories: home to first, first to third, second to home, first to home and all the way around the bases batters box to home. This will give the guys who don’t have power to join in the festivities to see who is the fastest player in the league.
 


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