Last week our Cajun Sports NCAA Football System of the Week qualified a play against the Idaho Vandals in their game versus the LA Tech Bulldogs. The system produced another winner as LA Tech went into Moscow Idaho and defeated the Vandals 24 to 11 as four-point road favorites.

This week we examine college home favorites playing exceptional defense allowing less than double-digit scoring in their most recent outings. Researching home favorites gave us a broad spectrum of games so we narrowed our search and uncovered a situation that has been perfect for more than 20 seasons with 18 consecutive SU and ATS wins, beating the spread by more than two touchdowns per game on average.

SYSTEM: Play ON a home favorite of less than 5 points off allowing less than 8 points in each of its last 2 games (not 2 non-lined contests) vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU loss. This system has a record of 18-0 SU and ATS since 1985 covering the spread by an average of 14.2 points per game.

We have to go back to 2008 to find the last active date for our system it was active on October 16 2008 with TCU (-1.5) facing BYU. The contest was not even close as TCU annihilated the Cougars 32 to 7. Prior to that game, the most recent active date was November 12 2005. On that date, Virginia was favored by three-points over Georgia Tech and they disposed of the Rambling Wreck 27 to 17.

This week the Michigan Wolverines travel to East Lansing to battle in-state rival Michigan State Spartans on Saturday afternoon. Michigan brings a 6-0 SU record into the contest but that record is somewhat suspect as the only two quality opponents they faced they used big breaks and turnovers for the victory. The Michigan State squad they will face has the Number 1 defense in the country allowing just 173 yards per game.

Michigan State held their last two opponents to less than eight points defeating Central Michigan 45 to 7 back on September 24 and defeating Ohio State at the Shoe 10 to 7 back on October 1. MSU is holding opponents to 64 yards rushing per game on 2.2 yards per carry and this against teams that would normally average 163 yards rushing on 4.5 yards per carry. We note that Michigan is 0-8 ATS versus teams allowing 3.25 or fewer yards per carry the last three seasons.

With all the system parameters met, this week’s CAJUN SPORTS NCAA Football SYSTEM of the Week qualifies the Michigan State Spartans as our Play ON team of the week. Play the Spartans minus the points over the Wolverines on Saturday in East Lansing Michigan.
 

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