Can Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers pull off the unthinkable and make it to the Super Bowl with a first-year head coach? The oddsmakers don’t seem to think so. They came out right after the Packers beat the Seahawks with a line setting the Cheeseheads as underdogs of 7.5 points. 

After the Packers nearly lost a 21-3 lead on Sunday night, it stands to reason why the best sports betting sites would so heavily favor a San Francisco 49ers team that just stomped all over a tough Minnesota Vikings squad.

Though you have to wonder about the value of taking a home favorite of more than a touchdown in a championship game against Aaron Rodgers. When he is healthy and in a clutch game situation, he seems to always find a way to win. On top of that, he might see this as his last shot and pick up the entirety of Wisconsin on his shoulder pads to carry them to Super Bowl LIV. And if the Packers can avoid turnovers, they might do just that. 

No Small Task

That said, going into San Francisco as underdogs and walking out with the win will be no small task. On the season, the Red and Gold have averaged 31 points and change of offense per game. ON the defensive end of things, the Niners have been quite good. They allow a hair over 18 points per game. When you stack this up against the Packers scoring just under 22 points per game on the road, and allowing a smidge more at 19 and change on defense, you end up with almost a 10 point differential. 

Next up: The NFC Championship.

Kyle Shanahan talks Sunday's matchup vs the Packers. #GBvsSF https://t.co/ve3ZitPC63

— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) January 13, 2020

But season-long stats don’t tell the whole story. You have to factor in recent play and momentum. And when we look at the last few games for both teams, that wide home vs. away margin gets a heck of a lot smaller. 

Green Bay has been particularly effective on defense while out on the road recently. In the span of the last three highway games, they have only let their opponents put up 14.33 points. Yes … read that again, home teams have only scored 14.33 points against the Packers over their last three games. On offense, they have tallied up 77 points on the road in three away games, which comes to 25.7 points per game. 

But what about Frisco’s most recent affairs at home?

Well, they are still pretty darn good. But they slip a little in their averages. In their last three at Levi, they have averaged 27.6 per game on offense and let opposing offenses put 23.33 on the scoreboards. So this leaves us with the Niners still having an offense that is two points better abut the Packers with a defense that has performed nine points better. Suddenly, that Home vs. Away margin favors the Packers by 9 points instead of the Niners by 10. 

This does not mean that I handicap the Packers to actually be -9 on the betting lines. That said, it makes you realize that there is quite a bit of value taking the Packers +7.5 to get the backdoor cover. 

This is going to be a battle to the very end. I see this game as a mud bowl without any mud. It will probably be sloppy, and it will definitely be ugly. The Packers have seemed to do just enough to get by for six straight games, and although I wouldn’t lay my money on them winning SU, I am confident that Green Bay covers seven and a hook. This could turn into one of those games where whoever has the ball last wins. 

The Packers just need to protect the ball and avoid silly turnovers and spend enough of their plays chewing down the clock by putting Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams into the gut of middling run defense. The Niners allow 107 per game and the Packers average 103, numbers that coincide. If the Packers put up around these numbers, or a bit more, they’ll soften that No. 1 pass D for Rodgers and cover the number.

Take the Packers +7.5