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General NBA Trends - Month By Month


By: Mike Lundin
Date: Feb 23, 2016
   
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I'm a big fan of using trends when I handicap NBA games. While team-for-team breakdowns are more exact, let's break down the season so far month by month to see if we can spot any trends and/or if the bookmakers have adjusted throughout the season. 

October
Home Team 15-23 ATS
Over 19-17-2

A small sample, but a clear advantage for the road team to cover the spread. 

November
Home Team 102-115-6 ATS
Over 90-128-5

Another month favoring the road team, and only backing the under would have made you a fortune. 

December
Home Team 113-112-3 ATS
Over 111-111-6

As close to a perfect month for the oddsmakers as you can get. Perhaps they've adjusted correctly?

January
Home Team 127-98-5
Over 121-103-6

No, looks like the oddsmakers actually over-adjusted for both ATS and totals so backing the home team ATS and the over were the moneymakers in January. 

February (up until Feb. 22)
Home Team 59-58-3
Over 68-48-4

The oddsmakers seem to have got the spreads correct so far but are still setting the lines for the totals too low. 

Conclusion: Don't be surprised to see higher totals in the upcoming month, and once again I think the oddsmakers will over-adjust. We should also take into account that games are likely to get more and more competitive as the playoffs approaches, so I definitely expect to get a lot of opportunities to bet the under until the end of the regular season. For home/away teams we might start to see value on the road team ATS, but I'm not quite as confident regarding that.  


 


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