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Final Four Preview: Self Gratified

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By: BoDog Sportsbook
Date: Apr 4, 2008
   
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Coach Bill Self has finally crossed to the Final Four promised land. Will he finally lead the Jayhawks to a national title in 2008?

Kansas is a desolate place in the winter: fallow, gray and lonely. It's a sparsely populated farming state that you definitely wouldn't visit for pleasure. One thing is certain, however. In the belly button of America, they sure as hell know how to ball.

Although it's in the limelight now because of its ascent to NCAA basketball's Final Four, Kansas' basketball history stems all the way to the root of the game. The inventor of basketball, Dr. James Naismith, coached the Jayhawks. Not even he, however, led Kansas to a national title.

The Jayhawks may own an attachment to the heart of basketball history, but they have limited hardware to show for it. Only two of the eight coaches ever to have helmed Kansas won a national championship; Larry Brown in 1988 and the legendary Phog Allen, who played for Naismith before leading the Jayhawks to titles in 1922, 1923 and 1952. The limited success of his predecessors is a fact not lost on current Kansas coach Bill Self.

Since his days at Illinois, Self's been called the best coach never to make it to the Final Four. No more. Breaking the barrier on the weekend was almost more than he could handle emotionally, and he collapsed to the floor after dodging the Davidson bullet in the Elite Eight.    

"I would say instead of jubilation, it was probably more relief," Self said. "You picture winning a big game like that, you make a shot, you celebrate, or something happens and you're able to go congratulate all your coaches and your players. This was not one of those deals. I just wanted to make sure that I hurried up and shook hands and the officials left the court so they couldn't put any more time back on the clock."

The question then becomes this: Now that he's gotten over such a huge emotional barrier, can Self take his team the rest of the way and join Brown and Allen in Kansas lore? Of the coaches that couldn’t take those final steps and win a title while in the heartland, the one name that jumps out immediately is Roy Williams, the current coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels, the team Kansas faces in the Final Four this weekend.

March Madness Betting
Final Four odds
Team (Seed) Odds
Kansas 16/5
Memphis 27/10
North Carolina 33/20
UCLA 63/20

The whole week of media coverage leading up to the Final Four has been about the matchup between Williams and Self. It's dug up all the old feelings of Williams' departure to UNC five years ago, hyped as the most competitive Final Four in history, and pointed out that Kansas trails only two teams in all-time college basketball wins and that one of those teams is UNC.

For bettors, however, this game is not about history, it's about the present. And presently, the Kansas Jayhawks are college basketball beasts.

Kansas lost only three games all season long and only one of those games by more than three points. Led by junior guard Brandon Rush, the Jayhawks are unquestionably the deepest team in the tournament. They're at the top of nearly every statistical category in the NCAA, from 12th in scoring offense at 80.6 points per game to third in field goal percentage defense at just 37.9.

Self's team has also been a pretty good bet this season. The Jayhawks have gone 21-15 ATS, including three out of four in the Big Dance thus far. One area the Jayhawks haven't been so good is playing away from home where they are just 4-7 ATS.

Odds on Kansas players being named the 2008 March Madness Final Four MVP
Brandon Rush 8/1
Darnell Jackson 20/1
Darrell Arther 13/1
Mario Chalmers 12/1

Much like the starting members of the Florida Gators' back-to-back championship team, the Jayhawks are a tremendously balanced scoring squad, with no one player dominating the offense. In fact, less than two points separate the average scoring of Rush (13.1), Darrell Arthur (12.7), Mario Chalmers (12.7) and Darnell Jackson (11.2).

"We have a nice blend of power, inside scoring, guys who can run, quickness on the perimeter to break you down, guys who can shoot off the kick-out," Self said. "I do think we have a really good team. I won't say it's the best team we've had. I'll wait and see how it plays out. But we have the talent to be as good a team as we've had, or better."

One thing that doesn't seem clear for Kansas is who can carry the Jayhawks when the chips are down. It's never a given which Jayhawk is going to be at the top of the scorer's sheet at the end of the night. The biggest offensive outpouring this season was Chalmers' 30 against Texas. And although he seems like the most consistent scorer, Chalmers is just 12/1 to win the NCAA tournament MVP and one of at least four others to lead Kansas in scoring during the season. Not even in its 109-51 rout of Texas Tech - the biggest in that university's history - did one Kansas player get up over 15 points.

"You never know who it is," said senior forward Jackson. "We've got a lot of guys who bring a lot to the table and we don't worry about who's getting the credit or who's not getting the credit. As long as we play as a team, we're going to win."


 

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