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Final Four Preview: An Underdog No More

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By: BoDog Sportsbook
Date: Apr 4, 2008
   
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After some early doubting, oddsmakers like the Tigers to beat the Bruins.

Do a Google search for "Memphis Tigers" and "respect" and you get quite the list. No wonder, the former is quickly earning the latter.

They play in a sub-par conference.

They can’t hit free throws.

Memphis Tigers basketball coach John Calipari heard it all about his team, and he never thought much of it.

"When the majority were picking us to lose every game we played and are focusing on one area of our basketball – and I mean focusing to the point of the ridiculous – I laugh about it and say, 'You're helping us, and if you continue to want to help us, keep doing it,'" Calipari said.

The doubters have "helped" the Tigers to four tourney victories, and only their second-round game – a 77-74 defeat of Mississippi State – was close. Memphis hammered Michigan State 92-74 in the Sweet 16 and did the same in the Elite Eight with an 85-67 win over Texas.

One notable statistic in their victory over the Longhorns: The Tigers hit 30 of their 36 attempts from the free-throw line. They entered the tournament converting at a modest 69.6 percent, drawing the disparagement of many a pundit. Chances are, Memphis will have to keep up their good work from the charity stripe in Saturday's Final Four clash with UCLA.

Besides free throws, two key matchups loom for the Tigers-Bruins showdown: the battle of the point guards, Derrick Rose versus Darren Collison, and the battle of the big men, Joey Dorsey versus Kevin Love.

Rose has been the more consistent of the two star guards, having yet to score less than 17 points in any tournament game. The freshman from Chicago is 17-for-26 (65 percent) from the field over his last two games.

"He reminds me, honestly, of Jason Kidd," says UCLA coach Ben Howland. "He has a Jason Kidd-type body. He's 6 feet 3 inches, 6 feet 4 inches, just so strong and physical. He overpowers you... He defends like Kidd, and he's a much better shooter at the same stage."

Meanwhile, UCLA's sophomore, Collison, has played two good games and two where he wasn't much of a factor.

As for Dorsey, the 6-foot-9-inch, 265-pound forward will have his hands full with Love. But the vice-versa might also be true. Dorsey has twice racked up 12 rebounds during March Madness. Besides, Love is but a mere freshman; Dorsey is a senior. He's been around. Hopefully long enough to realize he needs to stay out of foul trouble.

March Madness Betting
Final Four odds
Team (Seed) Odds
Kansas 16/16
Memphis 27/10
North Carolina 33/20
UCLA 63/20

All that and not even a mention of Chris Douglas- Roberts and his 22.5 points-per-game average in the tournament? Sorry about that. Like Dorsey (and unlike Rose and, for that matter, Love), Douglas-Roberts knows the pain of losing, having been with the Tigers for last year's lead-blowing against Ohio State and the previous year's shooting disaster versus UCLA.

"The previous two years, we weren't ready," he said. "We didn't know what the NCAA game was like, the intensity level, everything. But now we're more experienced. We know how you have to start a game and we know how you need to start a half... Any team with experience is always a better team."

The Tigers' experience, along with their impressive recent play, has to be a factor in the oddsmakers' decision to favor them by 2.5 points over the Bruins. Two weeks ago, nobody would have expected this line.

Some Memphis-Related Props
  • Oddsmakers expect the Tigers to shoot reasonably well from the free-throw line on Saturday. "Over 65 percent" pays just -135 while the under is at +105.
     
  • Collison will get a six-point head start versus Rose in their head-to-head scoring matchup. Bettors obviously like the Bruins man in this one and have bet the Collison line to -135 while Rose can be had at a juicy +105. One word of warning: Collison has twice scored six points or less in the 2008 NCAA tournament.
     
  • Dorsey will get a one-rebound head start versus Love even though the latter actually averages more boards per game (10.7) than the former (9.6).
     

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