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Final 4 Preview: Florida vs. UCLA

Erik Scheponik
Erik Scheponik

During the 2005-2006 sports season, Erik was the only handicapper to rank in the Sports Watch top 5 in all 4 major sports, winning money in all 4 (NCAA and NFL football, NCAA and NBA basketball)!
By: Erik Scheponik     Date: Mar 30, 2007
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Florida vs. UCLA: The Rematch

The Bruins have finally gotten their wish and that is a chance at redemption against these Florida Gators, the team that outclassed them 73-57 in last year's NCAA championship. Both teams have handled the BULL'S EYE placed on their backs in very tough conferences this season. The Pac 10's other Elite 8 contestant (only conference with more than 1), Oregon, already felt got chomped by the Gators earlier this week. The Pac 10 gets my vote for toughest conference this season, but the SEC was definitely top 3, and the Gators' division, the SEC East was brutal as 3 East teams made the Sweet 16, as both Vanderbilt and Tennessee were beaten by 1 point by teams that are still playing. Also worth noting that Kentucky won an NCAA tourney game, and Georgia an NIT game, so the East definitely proved itself this postseason.

UCLA took apart Kansas last round with their trademark defense, a defense that has allowed a paltry 36% FG this NCAA tourney, down from 43% during the regular season. They have also held foes to an ugly .77 assist/to ratio. UCLA loves to collapse the lane and run at teams' worst ball handlers. They are very long and athletic, and even an athlete the caliber of Julian Wright, a future top 6-7 NBA pick was thorughly frustrated as he got off only 7 shot attempts for 8 pts. last Saturday. They bring double and triple teams from all angles and are deep at both forward positions, using their fouls wisely. They remind you of the NBA's better defensive teams in that they give you nothing from the 3 pt. line (less than 5 3s per game) or the FT stripe (teams only shoot 15 FTs a game against them). They make you earn points and your second and third options better come to play because they refuse to get beat by team's leading scorers. HC Ben Howland is not the kind of HC you want to bet against in a game of this magnitude, and the defense he has this team playing is simply suffocating right now.

That being said, the Florida Gators are a tough matchup for UCLA. You don't shoot 53% from the floor against the competition Florida faced this season, by being a selfish, one-dimensional offensive team, the type of teams the Bruins take apart. The Gators don't have 1 key scoring threat on this team...They have 5. Last year in the National Championship game, they picked UCLA apart with 21 assists and only 6 TO's, and while they have been a little sloppier with the ball at times this season, they certainly won't crumble the way the Kansas Jayhawks did under the UCLA pressure. Big men Noah and Horford are so adept at sharing the ball and passing when the double team comes, its almost as if this team is built to combat UCLA's defense. If Lee Humphrey and Corey Brewer can combine for 5 or 6 from downtown, it could be a long day for UCLA, who although they do have depth in the frontcourt, don't have a true center to match up with Horford and super-sub Kris Richard down low. At least last year UCLA had Ryan Hollins, this year, they have an athletic collection at the 3 and 4 position, but only role player Mata at the 5. If the Gators handle the Bruins pressure anywhere near as well as in last year's final, and avoid making this an "ugly" contest, I'm not sure UCLA is built to go up and down the court with UF. One thing is for certain, UCLA PG Collison must play better than he did against Kansas, as 7 TOs (Bruins had 24 as a team!) simply won't fly here. The good news for Bruins backers, is that Collison is certainly capable.

On the other hand, UCLA did win last Saturday's game against the immensely talented Jayhawks by 13 despite 24 turnovers! Many of those were of the careless variety and that number most likely won't be hit here. I would only take the points here with Howland and this Bruin defense, as Florida, much like the regular season, has seemed to think they can turn it "on" and "off" at times. However, it is a mild lean at best as Billy Donovan is no slouch either, the matchups seem to again point to Florida, and Florida very well can have 3 top 15 picks on the floor on Saturday in Horford, Noah, and Brewer. One wild card in all of this could be the Billy Donovan to Kentucky rumors that the Gators headman hasn't exactly gone out of his way to deny. That can only be viewed as a negative at this time of year.

KEY TREND UCLA is now 22-9-1$ their last 32 games as an underdog

PREDICTION: Florida 64- 63


 


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