Looking for affordable and stylish timepieces? Look no further than AAA watches! When it comes to cheap watches, they have an impressive selection that won't break the bank. Whether you prefer classic designs or more contemporary styles, AAAwatches offers a variety of options to suit your taste and budget. With their competitive prices and reliable quality, you can find the perfect wristwatch without emptying your wallet. Don't compromise on style – explore the fantastic range of cheap watches at shop here today and elevate your accessory game without spending a fortune!

Shoes are an essential part of our daily lives. Whether for comfort, style, or functionality, they play a significant role. When it comes to finding the perfect pair, yeezy is your go-to destination. At yeezy, you can explore a vast collection of shoes that cater to various tastes and preferences. From athletic sneakers to elegant dress shoes, they have it all. The convenience of online shopping on jordans makes the quest for the ideal shoes effortless. With numerous brands and styles available, you'll undoubtedly find the right pair to complement your outfit or support your active lifestyle. Don't underestimate the power of well-chosen shoes; they can make a world of difference in your daily comfort and fashion.

nfl jersey is an online store that offers jerseys, a dream come true for NFL fans. Whether you support any team, NHL jersey has a wide range of NFL Jerseys for you to choose from. The MLB jerseys here are not only of excellent quality but also affordably priced. Whether you're wearing them to support your favorite team or for a weekend game, nba jerseys is your first choice. Furthermore, nba jersey provides various sizes and styles to meet the needs of different fans. Whether you're a newbie or a seasoned fan, nfl jerseys is the perfect place to purchase your NFL Jerseys. Boost your team spirit and visit nfl jerseys to shop for your NFL Jerseys! If you're looking for high-quality NFL Jerseys, then NFL jerseys is your best choice. At nfl jerseys, we offer official jerseys for various NFL teams. No matter which team you support, you can find the right jersey on our website. Our NFL Jerseys are made from the finest materials to ensure comfort and durability. Whether you're a dedicated fan or looking for the perfect gift, nfl jerseys majestic has got you covered. Explore our website to discover a variety of styles and sizes to meet your needs. Whether you're buying for yourself or selecting a gift for a friend, nfl jerseys is your top destination for purchasing NFL Jerseys.

Home / Articles / Draft Kings Are Making A GIGANTIC Mistake On Taking This Bet

Draft Kings Are Making A GIGANTIC Mistake On Taking This Bet


By: Point Shaver Handzelek
Date: Oct 13, 2020
   
Print This Article    Add This Article to Favorites

Draft Kings Sportsbook took its biggest mobile sports bet ever. This is a GIGANTIC mistake! Here's the bet followed by the numbers crunched revealing the advantage. A $3 million three-team parlay: Packers to win NFC North (-360) Georgia to win SEC East (-110) Alabama to win SEC West (-670) Risking $3 million would yield a win over $5.5 million Here’s the math the bettor's using. Let's go market-by-market to figure out the theoretical hold% on these and the true probability. First, the Packers GB -360 CHI +425 MIN +1100 DET +2000 This market has an implied 9.42% hold. Not that the vig is evenly distributed, but we'll assume for this exercise it is. GB -360 = 78.26% implied Divide that by market over-round and you get 70.89% true probability for GB to win the North. Second, the Bulldogs GA -110 FL -110 TEN +550 KY +4000 MIZ +10000 SC +10000 VAN +25000 Implied 19.98% hold here. GA -110 = 52.4% implied Divide that by market over-round and you get 41.92% true probability for GA to win SEC East. Lastly, the Crimson Tide BAMA -670 LSU +650 AUB +1200 MS ST +1200 TAM +1200 MISS +2200 AR +5000 Implied 22.92% hold here. BAMA -670 = 87.01% implied Divide that by market over-round and you get 67.07% true probability for BAMA to win SEC West. Let's check in on that parlay again. The odds of all 3 of these events happening is: .7089 * .4192 * .6707 = .1993 = 19.93% The "fair odds" for a wager like this is +402, not +186 Quite a difference The bettor is betting into a house edge of 43% To put this in context: 19.93% of the time the bettor will win $5,579,671 80.07% of the time the bettor will lose $3,000,000 His expected value on this wager is: -$1,290,071.57 When you bet parlays, you compound the house edge, much like compounding interest. Had the bettor bet $1m on each of these separately, his expectation would have been: GB -$94,200 GA -$199,800 BAMA -$229,200 = -$523,200 But he'd have only a 5.57% chance of losing the full $3m. I'd say, "Draft Kings, you're in a heap a bit o' trouble boys!"
 


Click here to view all of Mike Handzelek 's premium picks.





10StarPicks Newsletter

Sign Up To Receive FREE PICKS Daily.

First Name:

Last Name:

E-mail:



Featured Subscriptions


Paul Chirimbes
ALL Access Pass ALL SPORTS Money Plays

Chip Chirimbes the 'Big Game Player' and Three-time Handicapping Champion is offering SEVEN full days of ALL SPORTS winners for only $149. Take advantage now with the HOTTEST HANDICAPPER in the Nation as his RED HOT streak continues. - $149.00


Doc's Sports
Doc's Sports 30-day All Access Pass (Just Lowered)

Get all the Doc's orders in every sport for 30 days at this ridiculously low price right here on this website! Comes complete with 24/7 online access and support and get 30 DAYS ALL SPORTS NOW! Everything you need to WIN BIG! - $450.00




Hottest Handicappers