by Matt Severance - 8/13/2009
Every year in college football, a few high-profile teams go well over their projected win total and a few fall well short. This probably isn’t really news to you. With the season about to kick off, however, I’m here to give you a bit of advice on which teams are trending upward or downward. So I will pick one team to focus on as the best value. All odds are courtesy of BetUS and are for regular-season games – so conference title games or bowl games don’t count. That being said, here are my college football season win totals predictions for the 2009-10 season.
Kansas over 8 wins (+125): The Jayhawks are in the Big 12, so you know they can score. And this team definitely will do that. In fact, KU probably has the best group of receivers in the nation to go with stellar senior QB Todd Reesing. And top running back Jake Sharp is back as well. No wonder this team scored at least 29 points 11 times last year. However, KU was a disappointing 1-4 against ranked clubs in 2008. As usual in the Big 12, defense was a problem last year, as the Jayhawks were in the bottom five in the nation in pass defense – KU will play in the nickel on most downs. As for the schedule, nine wins seems a great bet. The non-conference schedule is very manageable, although Southern Miss is decent. Let’s just assume the Jayhawks lose to both Texas and Oklahoma, but they get Big 12 North co-contender Nebraska in Lawrence. They are at Texas Tech, but the Red Raiders are likely to take a step back. I certainly don’t see KU losing more than one conference game outside of the Horns and Sooners.
Oregon over 8 wins (+170): This is my best bet of these five schools. Did you see how this team finished 2008? It won six of seven, including handling a very good Oklahoma State team in the Holiday Bowl. Oregon was second in the country in rushing last year, and bruiser LeGarrette Blount is back, as is dual-threat QB Jeremiah Masoli (think Dennis Dixon), who had 13 touchdowns in the Ducks’ final three games last year. Yes, coach Mike Bellotti stepped aside, but offensive coordinator Chip Kelly is in as the new coach, so that unit shouldn’t miss a beat. If the defense is any good at all, this team might dethrone USC in the Pac-10. Kudos to Oregon for its non-conference schedule, which includes both Boise State and Utah. But the Ducks get USC, Cal and Oregon State at home. This team is 9-3 at worst and could finish 11-1. So, yes, I’m drinking the green Kool-Aid.
Rutgers under 8 wins (+170): The stellar passing combo of Mike Teel and Kenny Britt is gone. In fact, three of the top four wideouts are gone. But 13 starters are back from a team that won its final seven games of 2008. Fifth-year senior Domenic Natale, with his eight career pass attempts, looks to be the starting quarterback. OK, the non-conference schedule is incredibly weak with Howard, Florida International, Maryland, Texas Southern and Army, although I think the Terps win at their place. So can Rutgers go 4-3 in the Big East to get eight wins? In an incredible stroke of luck, the Scarlet Knights get Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, South Florida and West Virginia all at home. I say all four are better teams, but let’s assume Rutgers wins one. I still see the Knights being upset at UConn, Syracuse or Louisville to finish with seven wins.
Alabama over 9 ½ wins (+120): I put Alabama just above Virginia Tech on here because both teams’ fortunes will be heavily tied to the best game of the big opening weekend between the Tide and Hokies in Atlanta. I actually think Virginia Tech pulls out that win, meaning the Tide can lose only once more during the season to finish with 10 wins. Well, Alabama’s defense should again be the best in the nation with nine starters back. Outside of new starting QB Greg McElroy, the Tide are loaded at the skill positions with young talent – led by WR Julio Jones. Forget about the rest of Bama’s non-conference schedule, that’s a walk in the park. The three critical games will be at Ole Miss, home to LSU and at Auburn. Ole Miss is a chic pick in the SEC and the Rebels have hung close with Bama the past few years. But the Tide have too much on defense. That LSU game could certainly be a setback, but Auburn has fallen way behind Nick Saban and Co. to pose much of a threat. That’s 10 wins and quite possibly another SEC title game. By the way, this team might be preseason No. 1 next year.
Virginia Tech over 9 ½ wins (+120): As for the Hokies, they reached the Orange Bowl last year when it was supposed to be a rebuilding season. This was supposed to be the season they returned to national title contention, and I think they do. Tyrod Taylor’s passing reportedly is much improved from last year, and he’s one of the country’s top threats on the run. Darren Evans is one of the best running backs in the country. And the defense and special teams are always among the best in Division I. Frankly, I only see two possible losses here: That Alabama game and at Georgia Tech. The Hokies get Nebraska, Miami, North Carolina and rising NC State at home. Some might point out that trip to East Carolina in early November, but Virginia Tech will be out for revenge in that one. This team is 10-2 at a minimum, and don’t rule out running the table.
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