For starters, the tournament will have a new look this year. The field has been expanded to 68 teams—up from 65 a year ago. The “First Four” (UAB, Clemson, Southern Cal, Virginia Commonwealth) kicked off the tournament on Tuesday and Wednesday. It’s similar to the traditional play-in game but, in an added twist, the teams aren’t just 16 seeds; UAB and Clemson were fighting for a 12-seed while USC and VCU are playing for an 11-seed. There’s also the usual 16-seed battle (between UTSA and Alabama State) on Wednesday.

This year’s No. 1 seeds were awarded to Ohio State, Kansas, Duke and Pittsburgh. Their opening-round matchups shouldn’t offer too much intrigue, as a No. 16 seed has never won a game in the history of March Madness. No. 15 seeds haven’t had much luck either, as they’ve collectively gone winless (0-36) in the past nine years. In fact, the top four seeds have traditionally had a lot of success in the first round of March Madness, with each winning at least 78 percent of the time (and the No. 1 seed at the top with 100 percent success).

If you’re looking for upsets, picking a 12-seed over a 5-seed might be your best bet. Teams seeded fifth win just 66 percent of the time, and there are seemingly more upsets every year. This year’s 5/12 matchups include West Virginia and Clemson; Vanderbilt and Richmond; Arizona and Memphis; and Kansas State and Utah State.

Of those games, Memphis over Arizona looks the most intriguing. In the last three years, there have been eight teams seeded fourth or fifth that missed the tournament the previous year. Seven of those eight teams lost in the first round (with the eighth losing in the second round). No. 5 Arizona fits that exact profile this season.

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