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Coaching In Football

Matt Baiungo
Matt Baiungo

In the 2003-2004 Station Casino's NFL Football Challenge, Matt won the last four week's contest with a 15-5 ATS record and collected his share of the $10,000 prize. Numerous documented Top 10 finishes in all sports also appear on this handicapper's impressive resume.

By: Matt Baiungo
Date: Sep 30, 2008
   
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Here’s a question I want you think about for a minute:

Who is more important, the coaches or the players when it comes to picking winners against the spread?

Now, answer it. I guarantee you’ll have a different answer after reading what I’m about to tell you.

Many of you probably answered in the players favor while some (I would say the minority) of you may have given the nod to the coaches. This particular debate has been ongoing forever in the world of sports. I have a very strong opinion on this subject, and my reasoning is strictly based on the results that I have tracked when focusing on spread results.

To be honest, if I wasn’t a handicapper and bettor, I’d view this subject as irrelevant. A casual fan could care less, and basically watch sports as a form of entertainment. Many of you have sent me an email or called to tell me how much you love my coaching patterns that sometimes appear in The Max – Blitz Report, and more heavily on the late phone service.

And I thank you.

A majority of my summer is spent (when I’m not betting the ponies) updating and looking for other relevant coaching patterns that win against the spread. I’ve debated long and hard on whether or not I should share this info, but I realize that most of it is readily available anyway, so why not. I just make it easier for you guys, and save you all a ton of time.

Now don’t take offense to this…but…my best stuff will not be shared in an online report. Too many freeloaders read this…and…as far I’m concerned…it’s not fair to the paying clients.

Let’s get back to that question I asked you at the top. Here’s my answer:

Coaches Are Way More Important Than The Players… From A Betting Perspective!

Congrats if you answered the same…but…if you didn’t…who cares?…because you are now armed with another piece of ammo that beats the point spread.

Check out these numbers…

• Bobby Bowden at Florida St…his team is 40-24 (62.5%) vs. the spread off a straight-up loss.

• Rocky Long at New Mexico…his team is a perfect 11-0 (100%) vs. the spread off a bye.

• Jim Grobe at Wake Forest…his team is 18-9 (66.7%) vs. the spread as a road underdog.

• John Fox at Carolina…his team is 35-19 (64.8%) vs. the spread on the road.

• Mike Shanahan at Denver…his team is 15-4 (78.9%) vs. the spread off a bye.

• Bill Belichick at New England…his team is 34-18 (65.4%) vs. the spread against division opponents.

I just gave you 6 quick examples that are all very simplistic patterns. But they add up to 153-74 for a sweet 67.4% against the spread. And to illustrate just how powerful these coaching spread patterns are, a $100 bettor would have risked a total of $24, 970. And he would have made a net profit of $7,160 for an eye-popping 28.7% return on investment. Not too shabby.

As I write this, I have at my side, a folder containing spread patterns for every college and NFL coach...a few hundred of them. By the way, here is how I build my coaching spread patterns profiles.

My coaching spread patterns are accumulated by setting stringent criteria. For me to consider it a meaningful pattern, the coach must have a minimum of 3 years with that team and a minimum of a 10 game sample that falls under the particular situation. The win percentage must also be 60% or greater for the play to qualify. By setting these parameters, the results are quite meaningful and quite predictive of future performance.

Many coaches have been with the same team for many years and even decades. With players coming and going, it’s obvious that a coach’s system or the way they prepare for certain games does not change. Take Bobby Bowden at Florida St for example. The guy has been the head coach for over 30 years. When his teams come off a straight-up loss, they are 40-24 against the spread (62.5%). This speaks volumes as to his ability to get his kids to regroup and refocus during that week’s practice. There’s no question that Bowden’s glory years are in the past, and Florida St is not getting all of the blue-chip talent anymore, but his above spread pattern shouldn’t be ignored. The Seminoles were a qualifying play last Saturday after losing to Wake Forest the week before which should have caused you a little hesitation if you thought about using Colorado. The Buffs were a popular play too because many watched Florida St look completely lost in a 12-3 loss (7 turnovers also) while Colorado beat West Virginia. Both games were on the ESPN network which almost certainly meant those who watched couldn’t wait to grab the generous points with Colorado. I wasn’t on the Buffaloes bandwagon simply because of Bowden’s success in that spot.

There are hundreds of other solid coaching spread patterns out there, not only in football, but also in all the other major sports. Look back at my write-up on Mississippi this past week. There were two significant negative indicators on Florida’s Urban Meyer. They are unlike the six examples I listed above because they are much more under the radar. And those are significantly stronger because they are not in the oddsmakers’ scope. These under the radar coaching spread patterns provide a huge edge when picking winners against the spread. And if you put that edge in your corner, you had an easy winner on Ole Miss in their 31-30 upset win over Florida as 22 ½-point underdogs! My coaching spread patterns are exclusive…you won’t find them anywhere else. And always keep this mind…The coaches are more important than the players when picking winners against the spread!


 


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