This week’s system isolates teams who have returned home after going on the road and suffering an overtime loss as an underdog. Research shows that these underdogs have had no will to fight after coming so close but falling just short.

Our system tells us to play AGAINST a Saturday home underdog of four or more points off a road underdog overtime SU loss as long as they are not seeking revenge for a SU loss of more than sixteen points. The system has posted a record of 0-14 SU losing by an average of 24.9 points per game and 0-14 ATS failing to cover by an average of 12.6 points per game since 1996.

Last week the University of Idaho went on the road to Charlottesville Virginia for a meeting against the host Virginia Cavaliers. The Vandals were installed as 16-point road underdogs against the Cavaliers. Virginia jumped out to a 14 to 0 lead in the first quarter. The Vandal defense rose to the occasion and shut the Cavaliers down after that but their offense struggled and were only able to kick a pair of field goals before halftime.

The score remained the same until the 3:11 mark of the 4th Quarter when Idaho scored a touchdown and a two-point conversion. With the game tied at the end of regulation 14 to 14 the Vandals felt confident in their ability coming all the way back and now an opportunity to get the straight up victory in the overtime period.

Virginia opened the overtime period scoring a touchdown and converting the extra point to lead 21 to 14. Idaho got their opportunity and scored a touchdown with the extra point pending. The Vandals elected to go for a two-point conversion and the win. Virginia brought defensive pressure on Idaho QB Reader who launched a pass toward the end zone, TE Mike LaGrone made a leaning, one-handed attempt to pull in the ball, unfortunately, it hit the turf with a massive thud.

The Vandals own website put it best “One word – heartache that is all that can be said about Idaho’s gutsy, gut-wrenching 21 to 20 overtime loss at Virginia.” Our system suggests the Vandals will struggle after suffering such an emotional loss falling flat here and setting up a perfect play against situation for us.

The Bulldogs from Ruston Louisiana travel to Moscow Idaho for a Saturday evening battle against the host Vandals. With all of our system’s parameters met, we will recommend playing against the Vandals on Saturday night as Louisiana Tech takes advantage of the situation and gets the straight up and against the spread victory.