by Robert Ferringo - 2/4/2010

Drew Brees Saints quarterback

Apparently, defense isn’t allowed in the NFL anymore.

This January we have seen a dizzying display of offensive artistry as points have been a-plenty through the 10 games that we’ve witnessed. And the two teams that have survived the splurging are – not surprisingly – the two best offensive clubs in the NFL, Indianapolis and New Orleans.

The Colts and Saints meet at 6:30 p.m. on Sunday in Miami to knock heads for Super Bowl XLIV, While most people are busy trying to determine which team is going to win The Big Game I have become obsessed with the total. Currently the total rests at 56.5.

It’s almost a given that these two teams are going to light up the scoreboard. People are predicting both teams in the 30’s and possibly even the 40’s, with neither defense expected to be able to stop two pass-wacky attacks and two quarterbacks – one of the best of all-time and the other maybe the best of this season – that have combined to tally 78 touchdown passes this year. But if there is one thing that I know from handicapping is that when “everyone” expects one thing it’s usually the exact opposite that ends up occurring. (That’s how those casinos in Vegas ended up with so many shiny lights.)

The halftime total for this game is solid at 28.0 and the first quarter total has been placed at 10.5.

This game total actually opened at 57.5 and has been bet down to 56.5. Some of that may be “sharp” money coming in on the ‘under’ but weather issues (there has been rain in the forecast) could also be playing into the betting over the past week. However, even with the downward action this is by far the highest posted total in Super Bowl history.

Now, generally whenever I see a total of 50 or higher I am automatically banging on the ‘under’. And over the last decade more than three of every four total of 50 or higher in the regular season has gone ‘under’. It is the classic “contrarian’s” position and it has been a highly profitable situation for sharp minds.

A perfect example of this in action has been New Orleans this season. During the regular season the Saints saw nine totals of 50.0 or higher and went ‘under’ in six of those games. Indianapolis played in just one game with a total of 50.0 or higher and that game also went ‘under’. That is a 70-percent win rate and could have banked backers some serious cheddar.

However, the Saints have had two totals of 50 or higher in the playoffs and sailed both of them easily, averaging a total of 59 points (for and against) in each of those contests.

New Orleans hasn’t been the only team sailing over totals. In the 10 games of the NFL playoffs this year a whopping seven of them have gone ‘over’, including both conference championship games and all four games Wild Card weekend.

Last year the Steelers and Cardinals combined for 50 points and managed to squeeze over the posted total of 46.5. But despite that shootout – which had seen just 17 combined points with about 20 seconds left in the first half – the previous four Super Bowls had stayed under the total and an average of just 40 points had been scored in the last five Big Games. Further, only seven times since 1980 (30 Super Bowls) has there been more than 56 points scored in the NFL championship.

In general, Super Bowls are lower scoring than regular season games. Especially early, players and coaches tend to be a little more careful and a little bit more conservative. No one wants an early turnover for fear of falling behind early in the game. And no one wants to give up that Big Play that puts their team behind or allows an opponent some separation. Also, with the nerves involved in this game it’s a bit easier for the defense to come out and establish itself early while the offense works through the nerves, tries to find a rhythm and tries to get things going. All of those factors contribute to lower scoring championship games.

So what the hell do we do with the Super Bowl total?

An ‘under’ bettor really has to have some stones. Peyton Manning and Drew Brees are as good as it gets and both teams feature predominantly pass-oriented offenses. Passing means incompletions and that means clock stoppages. That means more plays, more big plays (by both offense and defenses in the form of sacks, fumbles and interceptions), and more scoring. So is it just that easy? Do we just take the ‘over’ and be done with it? Do we just accept the inevitable: that the recent playoff trends and the matchups are all obviously pointing to a high-scoring game? . The adage is that “defense wins championships” yet neither defense finished the season ranked in the Top 17 while the offenses were both in the Top 5.

Or do we try to outfox “everyone” and take the ‘under’? Again, it’s really one of the more unique situations in recent Super Bowl history. Usually there is a contrast in style between the teams involved. The Patriots vs. the Rams. The Bucs vs. the Raiders. The Steelers vs. the Seahawks. The Colts vs. the Bears. The Giants vs. the Patriots. The Steelers vs. the Cardinals. In each of those matchups there was one explosive offense and one team that was predominantly a run-the-ball-and-play-defense squad. But not this season.

Regardless, there are going to be a lot of people that look and feel really foolish. If the game goes ‘over’ it’s going to be egg on the face for anyone that tried to buck the pretty obvious indications that these teams were going to light it up. If the game stays ‘under’ then it’s going to be easy to laugh at all of the “squares” and “sheep” in the public that got swindled once again by Vegas.

So if you want to make a bet on the total bet on this: it’s going to be a hell of a lot easier to call this one the Monday morning after the game is played.
 

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