Betting the Betting the AFC West in 2020

I have to admit that growing up with the AFC West was probably my favorite division to watch. I grew up a huge John Elway fan and the Chiefs were always entertaining and now appear to be poised for another dominant run while the Raiders have always been...interesting. I remember watching the Chargers get torched by the 49ers in the Super Bowl on a black and white 13” television in my bedroom when I was still just learning football. The division is much different now as the Raiders are in Las Vegas and the Chargers are in Los Angeles but this is still one of the more entertaining divisions in the NFL. Here’s how to bet it in 2020.

History would suggest...

As stated above, the Chiefs have been the dominant force in the division the last four seasons after the Broncos took the title for five straight seasons. Those two franchises are the only two teams to win the division since 2009 when the Chargers capped their run of four consecutive division titles. The West seems to be won in waves and right now the Chiefs are riding a big set of whitecaps.

The Favorite

As you would expect, the Chiefs enter the season as the heavy favorite coming off of their Super Bowl victory. As the legend of Patrick Mahomes grows, Kansas City will continue dominate the odds in the West due to the simple fact that every other team in the divisio has a question mark under center. Currently, the Chiefs hold no real value. They opened at (-400) and currently sit at (-450) on Bovada and (-350) on BetOnline.

You could see this as an opportunity to place a large bet on a sure thing for minimal winnings but as we saw last season, we are only a quarterback sneak on the goal line away from a catastrophe.

The Value Plays

The Denver Broncos currently sit at (+800) after opening the offseason betting at (+900). The Broncos will move forward with Drew Lock as their starter after releasing Joe Flacco earlier in the offseason. Lock performed well enough in his five games, going 4-1 and throwing for more scores and fewer picks than Flacco. Lock is a big kid who showed he can really sling it in college but I am not sure I am ready to trust him at this level.

The Las Vegas Raiders are the real VALUE in this division. I stress the word value because they are the best combination of talent and potential ROI, but it is still unlikely. Everyone dislikes Derek Carr and I don’t really know why. The numbers are decent, if unspectacular. He had fewer RedZone turnovers than Baker Mayfield, Phillip Rivers, and Matt Ryan last season. He threw for 4,000 yards, completed 70% of his passes, and was ninth in the league in yards per attempt in 2019. The Raiders still saw fit to bring in Marcus Mariota this offseason. We will see how that plays. At (+1200) on Bovada and (+800) on BetOnline, John Gruden’s bunch may be worth a sprinkle.

No thanks, I’m driving

The San Diego Chargers bring up the rear for me, but bookmakers still seemed to like them almost as much as the Broncos and slightly more than the Raiders when the lines opened. The Chargers were (+1000) to open and currently sit at (+900) at Bovada and (+800) at BetOnline despite the fact that they don’t have a quarterback and Anthony Lynn is still the coach.

My Pick

The easiest bet in the league is the Chiefs to win this division but are you going to lay down the cash to make it worth it and then hope that Mahomes doesn’t take a big hit at some point in the season? I would rather sprinkle a little something on the Raiders, hope for the best and bet the over on Kansas City’s wins which were set at 11.5 according to William Hill.  Bet on the AFC West at RealBookies.com our top pay per head bookie site.

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