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Betting Strategy


By: Mike Devine
Date: Aug 11, 2010
   
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One of the most frequently asked questions that professional handicappers get is how many games should I play each day or week. That isn’t easily answered as there are many ways to skin the proverbial cat, but this is a matter of basic strategy that handicappers answer in many different ways. I have always approached it as if I am managing a stock portfolio, and that method involves diversification. If you look at this most difficult exercise as investing than playing a large number of games and thereby diversifying your portfolio makes sense to me. If you took 50,000 dollars to your stockbroker and he put the money into 3 or 4 stocks you would scream bloody murder would you not?

I always find it curious that it’s perfectly logical and prudent to have your stock portfolio contain many different stocks, mutual funds and other investments, but if you bet sports as an investment you need to just play a few games, really limit the number of games, putting more eggs in one basket. Playing more games lowers risk and makes sense in the long run after you establish a bankroll. Playing just a few “KEY” games is inherently MORE RISKY isn’t it? We all like a little action and drama , but if you are betting say 5,000 dollars on a Saturday afternoon, would you just play 2 games for 2500 dollars in a card of over 50 games? I mean there are more than 2 bettable games on EVERY card, so how would you pick just two and not feel as though you are leaving many other good situations on the table? If you are handicapping the full card from the moment the lines come out on Sunday through Saturday morning ,it’s almost impossible to come up with only 1- 3 plays, you are almost conceding that the 2 that you are playing are actually 2 of say 7- 9 that can be considered good bets. Do the guys who play a few games a weekend find a good spot or two early in the week and then STOP handicapping the board because they found GREAT BETS and they are now done and they want to be disciplined ? I don’t consider that disciplined ,I consider it self imposed limitations.

Now if you just lie to GAMBLE and love having a lot of money on a couple games and sweating out the huge swings of money based on a few teams then go for it, prepare yourself for a season of intense heart palpitations, I’ll work the whole board and grind out units of profit from an investing perspective. Saturday college hoops cards are a great example of this concept, I grinded out among the most units of an documented handicapper in the country this past season and have been ranked very high over the last 7-8 years at monitors using the principles of diversification that you would in a more traditional investing sense. Just from a situational handicapping perspective there are usually at least 10 games that qualify as good spots to take a shot with. Then you have some fundamental spots , may be a trend that really makes sense and all of a sudden you have may be 15 games that you can play with some confidence. That seems ludicrous to some but in actuality there are over 100 games on the board so it’s no different than playing a few NFL games on a Sunday. You may say that just the job of finding these situations is time consuming and well you would be correct. I start my College hoops Saturday’s on Wednesday Night and go full force on the Saturday card starting Friday morning , ending early Saturday morning. Some say you should just focus on a few conferences and learn all you can about them and wager accordingly. I am not saying that is a terrible concept for some to embrace, but while you may know more about some individual players and facts about the teams, the cost of missing out on some potential great spots in other conferences that occur each week because you are busy getting to know so much about a handful of teams much of the information is not even applicable to the betting process. If you cover most of the board it is a lot of work and you have to budget your time, but in the long run you will find more easy winners than you ever have if you cover as many conferences as you can, because good situational handicapping spots can be found in EVERY conference each week and if you aren’t even looking at some conferences at all you guarantee yourself that you miss very winnable games each week
 


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