So, why is this the National Championship game? After watching the New Year’s Day bowl games I feel strong that neither of these teams are representative of the top 2 teams in the country. Those distinctions clearly go to Georgia and Southern California. Certainly, makes me question why the Rose Bowl chose Illinois instead of an available Georgia team, but never the less both improved their resume with their dominant wins. I fully agree that under the current system you cannot have a Southern Cal team that lost to conference rival Stanford play for the National Championship, BUT that is exactly why there is a need for a bracket system that would guarantee that the National Championship would be fully earned on the field and not by people’s opinions.

Don’t get me wrong though as this game will be hotly contested with many great athletes involved in its’ outcome. The running game will be a huge factor in this game and there are some strong game dependent angles. The Ohio State running game will determine the winner. Note that Ohio State is 23-8 ATS when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. LSU is in weak role should Ohio State rush for this amount per play. Note that LSU is just 23-8 ATS when they rush for 4 to 4.5 yards per attempt since 1992. If you like the UNDER for this game then you would have to agree that Ohio State will allow 150 to 200 passing yards. Note that the UNDER is a perfect 6-0 when Ohio State allows 150 to 200 passing yards in a game. You may want to temper that UNDER enthusiasm a bit though as the line opened at 51.5 and is currently at 48.5 with the public steadily thinking this will be a defensive Big-10 style of game. Note that the public has been correct in moving the total in LSU games only 37% of the time for a poor money losing record of 38-63 against the total. Yet, I think the public is onto something as Ohio State sports the nation’s best scoring defense at 10.7 PPG.

If you like LSU you may like to hear that they are 7-0 ATS in road games versus excellent passing defenses allowing 5.25 or less passing yards/attempt since 1992. If you think Ohio State will get the upset win then you will want to hear that they are 6-0 ATS versus dominant ball control teams, 32+ minutes TOP, 21+ FD's per game over the last 3 seasons. Being seasoned in the very tough SEC Conference has not hurt LSU when venturing out of conference. They are 8-1 ATS in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons. There is no wisdom gained from looking at common opponents since they did not have a single common opponent this year.

This will be the second straight year and third in the past 6 seasons that Ohio State is playing for the National Title. You may not remember that Ohio State was not even the Big-10 favorite in the pre-season and were third at best behind Michigan and Wisconsin. Ohio State lost last year’s game and were installed as a favorite. Yet, when the Buckeyes are installed as a dog they have won the last 3 bowl games in SU fashion. LSU has perhaps the most balanced team in the nation on both sides of the ball. They averaged 221 rushing yards and 229 yards passing and have yielded just 4.3 yards per play defensively. For those history buffs, LSU holds the edge against the Big-10 with a 5-3-1 mark while Ohio State is just 3-9-1 versus the SEC.

How a team has played in their last 3 games, which are often times the strongest competition of the season, can reflect the character of the team. Looking at their last 3 starts Ohio State is averaging 24.3 PPG while LSI is averaging 36.7 PPG. Defensively, Ohio State has allowed 16 PPG while LSU has allowed 29.3 PPG. Their respective scoring differentials are nearly identical, but in vastly different game types. LSU has been outgained in 2 of the last 3 games. In the SEC Championship game they outgained Tennessee by 121 total yards (118 by rush and 3 by pass). In the second to last game they were outgained by Arkansas in a 50-48 win by 100 yards (181 on the ground while they outgained Arkansas by 81 through the air). In the third to last game they were outgained by 70 total yards in a win at Mississippi being outgained by 70 total yards (they outgained Mississippi on the ground by 27 while Mississippi out gain them through the air by 97 yards). Ohio State has been outgained in just 1 of the past 3 games and that was in their only loss to Illinois. In that game Illinois outgained them by 64 yards (Illinois outgained them by 80 on the ground while Ohio State through more 16 more passing yards).

LSU starting QB Matt Flynn will be starting in this game after suffering a shoulder injury in the Arkansas game. He saw no action in the SEC Championship game against Tennessee. He has practiced for the past several weeks without restrictions. For Ohio State, DE Lawrence Wilson may be available. He broke his right leg in the Buckeye's regular season opener and missed the season. The only other OSU player not available is DB Eugene Clifford. He has been suspended for the national championship game because of a violation of team rules.

This will be a good game to watch; not a great game and certainly not the two best teams in the country. The “system” performed correctly, but unfortunately these two teams are not the two best teams in the country. After this game is over there will be much hot debate over the BCS and who, is truly the best team in the country. Happy New Year!