Too early to start thinking about football? Blasphemy!
Spring has sprung, the grass has ris’.
I wonder where the football is?
Yes, it seems a tad bizarre to break down pigskin futures in
the month of May. The National Football League should be out of
our collective consciousness; Major League Baseball is in full
swing while the NBA and NHL playoffs are reaching their
respective boiling points.
Really, there should be no reason whatsoever to get excited
about the NFL when football is in its offseason. But then I
point to what the league's signature network continually rams
down our throat in its numerous advertisements:
There is no offseason.
Now that free agency and the entry draft are in the books, we
can begin to accurately assess the
NFL Futures in the Bodog Sportsbook. Today, we'll start with
the
odds to win Super Bowl XLIII.
| Team |
Odds |
| Atlanta |
150/1 |
| Miami |
100/1 |
| Oakland |
100/1 |
| Kansas City |
90/1 |
| New York Jets |
75/1 |
| St. Louis |
65/1 |
| Detroit |
65/1 |
| Buffalo |
65/1 |
What a fall from grace for the Jets, who just two years ago
were a 10-6 playoff team and one of the promising young units in
the league. Now, they're coming off a 4-12 campaign, traded
Jonathan Vilma for 25 cents on the dollar and remain undecided
between the mediocre QB of the past (Chad Pennington) and the
mediocre QB of the future (Kellen Clemens).
If there's one team in here that could probably make some
noise, it's Buffalo. After a 7-9 season decimated by injuries,
the Bills return a young, talented core of Trent Edwards,
Marshawn Lynch, Paul Posluszny, Donte Whitner, Langston Walker
and Lee Evans. Too bad they play in the AFC East, where you're
basically playing for second place.
Atlanta and Kansas City will probably battle for the worst
record in the league. Oakland and Miami could each win six
games, a successful season for both. Hopefully Jon Kitna doesn't
predict another 10-win season for Detroit, because it's not
going to happen.
St. Louis has offensive talent in a weak defensive division,
so the biggest optimist could say that the playoffs are within
reach. I am not the biggest optimist, however.
| Team |
Odds |
| Houston |
60/1 |
| Arizona |
50/1 |
| Baltimore |
50/1 |
| Carolina |
50/1 |
| Chicago |
40/1 |
| Cincinnati |
40/1 |
| Denver |
40/1 |
| Tampa Bay |
35/1 |
| Tennessee |
35/1 |
| Washington |
35/1 |
The trick with
Super Bowl futures betting is to 1) aim big and 2) look as
far ahead as possible without being unrealistic.
Given the landmines in the AFC - to get to the dance, you'll
presumably have to go through one of New England, Indianapolis
or San Diego - the best futures bets are laid on NFC teams.
Of this lot, you can write off Arizona (fate lies in the
hands of Matt Leinart), Carolina (window closed two years ago),
Chicago (not until they solve the Rex Grossman problem) and
Washington (ridiculously tough schedule). That leaves...
Tampa Bay.
The Buccaneers are the defending NFC South champs and loaded
up with some key veteran free agent signings. DE Marques Douglas
should add a new dimension to the pass rush while C Jeff Faine
comes over from division rival New Orleans to anchor the O-Line.
But the biggest addition might be a familiar face - Warrick
Dunn.
Dunn returns to Tampa - the team that drafted him out of
Florida State 12 years ago - after spending the last six seasons
in Atlanta. While he's got some tread on the tires at 33, he
still went for 958 all-purpose yards last season in a putrid
Falcon offense. He'll slide in nicely to the Bucs' RB rotation
alongside last season's surprise Earnest Graham and the
oft-injured Cadillac Williams.
The team also gave QB Jeff Garcia some more
short-to-intermediate passing options by picking up TEs Ben
Troupe and John Gilmore. They're better fits for the West Coast
(although in Tampa, it's more dink-and-dunk) offense that Jon
Gruden uses.
| Team |
Odds |
| Cleveland |
28/1 |
| Green Bay |
20/1 |
| Minnesota |
28/1 |
| New Orleans |
22/1 |
| Philadelphia |
20/1 |
| Pittsburgh |
25/1 |
| Seattle |
25/1 |
These are the "pitfall" teams - they're just good enough to
make you consider a wager, but the odds aren't tasty enough to
lay down the cash. What's throwing their seasons (and, wagers)
arrears is the AFC North-NFC East crossover. Pittsburgh looks
like a great deal at 25/1 until you realize the only time the
Steelers face a team with a losing record is when it plays four
games against division rivals Cincinnati and Baltimore.
The Steelers' opponents' .598 combined winning percentage is
the toughest in recent memory and one of the toughest in NFL
history. Overall, the Steelers play 12 games against teams that
didn't have losing records in 2007.
That also messes up the Browns and Eagles, both of whom have
decidedly tougher schedules than a season ago.
While Green Bay, Minnesota and Seattle fit within the
pick-a-NFC-team philosophy, Aaron Rogers, Tarvaris Jackson and
the Seahawks anemic ground game keep them from being legit.
Of the lot, New Orleans and its new-look defense is probably
the most intriguing. The team completely revamped a weak LB core
by adding Vilma and Dan Morgan; Randall Gay comes over from New
England to bolster a shaky secondary. Seventh overall draft pick
Sedrick Ellis should be slotted into the starting DT position.
| Team |
Odds |
| Dallas |
8/1 |
| Indianapolis |
15/2 |
| Jacksonville |
12/1 |
| New England |
10/3 |
| New York Giants |
16/1 |
| San Diego |
8/1 |
You know the Super Bowl jinx is alive and well when the
defending champs are at 16/1 while Philly - who didn't make the
playoffs - is 20/1. Dallas continues to get a lot of love
despite the fact they gave away a productive LB in Akin Ayodele
and brough in notorious headcase Pacman Jones.
Taking one of Indy, New England, Jacksonville or San Diego is
a crapshoot because they'll have to go through each other to win
the AFC.
I do like how Jacksonville played a season ago, especially in
the postseason. A win in Pittsburgh and playing the Pats close
in New England showed this is a team ready to make a splash. Can
the additions of Jerry Porter and Drayton Florence push them
over the top?
We've only got a few months to go before we find out. Who
says football can't be exciting in the spring?
*****
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