It’s that time of year when weather plays a huge role in the outcome of many games. By paying attention to the weather reports around the country, you can benefit in a couple of ways. First, if potential bad weather is being reported early in the week, you might want to take a look at the total. By taking a lead on the number, it sets you up in a great situation if the weather report turns out to be accurate. You can then buy back the adjusted number at kickoff and try to play for a middle. If the total lands between key numbers like 41 and 37, then this would be the strategy to employ. Or you can stand pat with the best number, and let the game play out. Over the long haul, I’d say you’re better off playing it this way when the key numbers are not involved. It simply comes down to personal preference though and you should determine your action on a case by case basis. Let’s take a look back to 2006 when the Patriots hosted the Jets in a game where bad weather played a huge role. The total sat at 37 ½ for the entire week. On Sunday morning, the sky opened up and the rain was coming down in buckets. This was not a report I got, but instead an eyewitness account as I was back in Boston at the time. Knowing the awful field condition of Gillette Stadium regardless of weather (because of soccer played there), I knew the field would be complete mud. This was when Gillette still had natural grass. I played the under, and while talking to Erik that morning, I relayed to him the weather report along with the expected field conditions. To my surprise, the line never came down and it closed at 37 ½. If any of you remember watching that game, you saw two teams playing the conditions more than playing each other. And that is the second way in which you can use bad weather games as a handicapping tool for future games. What I mean by that is this. It wasn’t a case of the Jets out-playing the Patriots to earn the 17-14 win as 10 ½-point underdogs. It was more like they took advantage of the sloppy conditions that caused the Patriots to make many, many mistakes. Tom Brady was handcuffed out there, and he played like he was standing in quicksand. Had the field been in normal playing condition, got to believe the outcome would have been totally different. For those unaware of what really transpired, they upgraded the Jets win and downgraded the Patriots because of the loss. But I didn’t ignore the results because I saw how affected the teams were by the weather conditions. And to my surprise, the Jets garnered a lot of attention while the Patriots were ignored in the betting marketplace the following week. That had to do with the previous week’s results, and those who were unaware of the above info were the ones backing the Jets and fading the Patriots. Well, I took advantage of this situation and cashed two tickets; one on the Patriots in their 35-0 win over the Packers and another on the Bears in their 10-0 win over the Jets. The lesson here is to pay attention to the weather reports and follow up with the true results if the conditions affected the outcome. The month of November presents some great opportunities for us sports bettors. The NFL and college football are in full swing, the NBA has tipped-off and is off and running, and college basketball is on the horizon. The oddsmakers have tremendous obstacles to overcome in November. They need to post lines on every game, and we get to exploit them. We have a huge advantage because we can pick and choose while selecting the plays that have the biggest edge. November is the month where the books are most vulnerable, and Matty B Sports looks to expose those weaknesses night in and night out in both football and basketball. November is our best and busiest month by far.
Click here to view all of Matty Baiungo's premium picks.
Social Bookmarking
