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2019 NFL Divisional Round Fantasy Sleepers and Discussion Points


By: John Ryan
Date: Jan 11, 2019
   
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The Divisional Round of the 2018 NFL season starts this weekend with some exciting matchups to enjoy. It is also a time to take advantage of some true bargains as identified by the Machine Learning Math (MLM) that will serve to help optimize your fantasy teams and hopefully get you big prize money too. Identifying bargains up near open-ended point ceilings is the key to any winning roster, both in cash games and tournaments frameworks. The goal is to let the MLM discover the best bargains on a points scored per 1K cost. No matter how much you read, study, or listen the bargain players are nearly impossible to identify intuitively without some serious luck. Enter MLM to help our cause. JARED GOFF, QB, LOS ANGELES RAMS After hitting his low-point stretch that started in Week 13 at Detroit and included Week 14 at Chicago and Week 15 losing to Philadelphia at home, Goff has had back-to-back Above average performances. With two weeks to rest and McShay at the helm, there is reason to believe he will score far above his season fantasy points average against the Dallas Cowboys. The matchup I truly like a ton is when the Rams go into a 3-WR set, which moves Robert Woods from the right-side WR to the slot receiver. IN the slot, Woods, who is the best Rams receiver on the Rams based on our analytics will be defended by Anthony Brown, who ranks 60th in the cornerback rankings and arguably the weakest Dallas defender on the field. Robert Woods does not qualify as a bargain, but having him as one of your core members is a must. CHRIS HOGAN, WR, NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS Chris Hogan was a very popular pick among season long office type leagues and has disappointed his backers on many weekends. However, he is now priced under 4K at DraftKings and we project him to score 14.4 points, which puts him into the TOP-5 based on points-per-thousand cost. I take the MLM projected points and simply divide by the Draft Kings price tag to acquire him and then multiply by $1,000. This points-per-1K column in our database then is used to create fully automated multiple lineups. One of the advanced mathematical process used to create these lineups is multiple non-linear regression, which we have found to be an excellent starting point for our deep learning analysis. Machine Learning versus Deep Learning and Artificial Intelligence While I am at, let’s have a brief discussion on these terms. Many people love throwing these words out to impress the listener, but many, if not all of them, really don’t get the definitions of these headings. Deep Learning (DL) and Machine Learning (ML) are two sub-sets within the over arching AI universe. When using the process of Machine Learning, you are discussing a predictive measures that has a identified one specific data point. For example, “our MLM has projected that the Patriots will score 31 points and that Chris Hogan will score 14.4 Fantasy Points in the Draft Kings (DFK) scoring format.: With DL, which, by the way requires an immense amount of processing energy, identifies a range of the predictive values. The results are often times referred to as clusters. For example, our DL has projected that the Patriots will score between 27 and 34 points and Chris Hogan will score between 7 and 18 fantasy points. There is a lot more to each of these concepts, but knowing these high level definitions is certainly important. ALSHON JEFFERY, WR, PHILADELPHIA EAGLES The big debate building in Phialdelphia is whether Foles is better than Wentz. I can tell you factually that Foles extends defenses far better than Wentz and is not a threat to scramble. Foles has connected with Jeffery on 22 receptions for 384 yards and a touchdown in four games. Based on Jeffery’s season stats in total, he does not appear to be cheap, but when factoring in these four games with Foles, he becomes extraordinarily cheap. The MLM projects him to score 17.7 points which is a very attractive 3.052 points per $1k cost. Little doubt that if the Eagles are to post another road upset, Foles will have to connect with Jeffery even more than did in the Wild Card win. I also like the Chargers defense and not so fond of Patriot RB White or Michel. Looks like a trap to pick those two RB. Gerrett, the TE for the Rams is attractively priced. Follow me on Twitter @JohnRyanSports1 for more DFS and especially in the in-game LIVE Betting opportunities.
 


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