by Robert Ferringo - 4/13/2011

The NFL is a copycat league. If a team has even a modicum of success, however fleeting or trivial, it seems like the rest of the league immediately enters an unsanctioned race to mimic Said Team’s path to success.

The Cover-2. The 3-4. The audible attack of Peyton Manning. The blitz-crazed schemes of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia or the New York Giants. Zone blocking. Running quarterbacks. All have been cloned and mass-produced throughout the NFL recently, with each taking its turn as the en vogue trademark of The Next Great Championship Blueprint.

After watching Green Bay carry off the Lombardi Trophy this February I thought that this offseason was going to follow the same predictable pattern as the previous dozen. And when it came to the Packers I figured that their three-, four- and five-wide offensive sets would become all the rage throughout the league. I figured there would be a run on speedy wideouts in free agency and in the draft. And I assumed that everyone would spend the offseason trying to replicate the big-play assaults of the last two Super Bowl champions, Green Bay and New Orleans.

However, as we approach the 2011 NFL Draft, plunging head-first through the stretch run of the 2011 NFL Mock Draft season, I noticed an interesting tendency predicted for the upcoming cattle call: everyone wants defense.

Just about all of the 2011 NFL Mock Drafts that I have been perusing follow the same patterns. A majority of them have the same players going to the same teams in the same spots throughout the majority of the first round. It is pure bobblehead media stuff. Now, I can attest to the difficulty in trying to predict all 32 selections. It is nearly impossible to anticipate trades and whatever the hell craziness Al Davis will unleash each April. But I also know mass delusion when I see it. And if you scan the blogosphere you’ll notice that there is just a little too much agreement near the top of the NFL Draft predictions for there to be any hope that it will actually follow the “prescribed” path.

Yet, even though I don’t think things are as cut and dry as they appear - for instance, EVERYONE has Cam Newton going No. 1 overall even though I would say there is probably no more than a 60 percent chance that Carolina pulls the trigger – the order of player selections isn’t what has surprised me this spring. What has stood out is the overwhelming number of defensive players projected – by every site – to go in Round 1.

I trolled through 10 other mock draft from prominent football sites. On average, these sites project that as many defensive linemen (12) will be drafted in the first round as overall offensive players. And a lot of sites have players like Jake Locker (a reach) and Mark Ingram (injury issues) generously going in the 20’s. But they all held true to the same theme: it will be quarterbacks early in the Top 5 and then the rest of the first round will be filled out by guys who will be paid to mangle those quarterbacks.

As you can see below, I “go against the grain” with several of my 2011 NFL mock draft predictions. This isn’t done intentionally; I have just seen enough drafts and tried enough mocks to know that things NEVER go “according to plan”. But even I couldn’t help but assume that defensive players would outnumber offensive draft picks by over 2-to-1 on April 28, the night of the first round of the NFL Draft. So even though offense is generally what creates fan interest and, at least over the last two years, it his what has generated championships, it appears that this year clubs are returning the football’s roots and should be looking to build teams using the most traditional analysis available: take the biggest, meanest, hardest-hitting SOB left on the board.

I’d have to say I approve.

With that in mind, and with over two weeks to go until Decision Time, here is Doc’s Sports 2011 NFL Mock Draft:

1. Carolina – Cam Newton, QB, Auburn

Back in February the consensus among the bobbleheads in the mainstream media and online was that Nick Fairley was a “no doubt” No. 1 overall pick. (I released one of the few NFL Mock Drafts that rejected that idea.) And I would love to say that the Panthers aren’t going to take Newton. But there is no denying that he was a man among boys last year in college and that his upside is tremendous compared to the others in the field.

But I also know this – there is absolutely no way in hell I would take Newton to be my team’s “franchise quarterback”. I didn’t see anything in him that was better than what I saw from Vince Young when he was at Texas, and we all saw how that worked out. And Newton has twice the baggage and twice the issues coming into the league that Young ever had. I wouldn’t go anywhere near Newton and, frankly, I don’t think he will ever be an elite player in the NFL. (Oh, and if Warren Moon wants to say that I’m playing the race card you can tell him to go screw himself. Don’t blame me that these guys were dickheads that just happened to be black.)

2. Denver – Marcell Dareus, DT, Alabama

The smart money suggests that John Fox is going to shift Denver back to a 4-3 defense. I’m sure he would prefer to have an athletic end to rush the passer, but Da’Quan Bowers’ knee injury has made selecting him way too big of a risk. Apparently Dareus has surpassed Fairley as the top tackle on the board, so I will defer to the talent evaluators. Yet, if it were up to me I would still go with Fairley if I wanted a DT.

3. Buffalo – A.J. Green, WR, Georgia

Everyone and their sister have the Bills taking Von Miller at this spot. And I would have no problem with that selection because it also addresses a need for the Bills. But Buffalo fans – who are among the best and most loyal in all of sports – need something to get excited about. The smart money also suggests that Buffalo would take Newton if he were to fall. That would be a colossal mistake because Newton wouldn’t want to be there, he wouldn’t work hard, and I guarantee that all of his personal issues would come out in full force just because he would be so miserable in Orchard Park. So Buffalo should take Green, who is a freakish offensive talent. Who was Buffalo’s last legit No. 1 receiver? That would be Eric Moulds about 10 years ago. I would almost never suggest taking a wide receiver over a linebacker in the Top 10, but the Bills should go with Green here and fill their defensive needs later.

4. Cincinnati – Blaine Gabbert, QB, Missouri

If I were the Bengals I would be entertaining trade offers for this pick and I would find a cornerback-hungry team that wanted Patrick Peterson to deal with. But that makes way, way too much sense for Cincinnati. I think they better take Carson Palmer’s threat seriously. And they have to ask themselves: even if they don’t trade Palmer, and he doesn’t retire, how much good do you think he will be to this team and, most importantly, this locker room? Robert Quinn would be my second choice here. But I think Cincy could trade down to the middle of Round 1, pick up an extra pick somewhere, and grab the pass rusher they need. If not, they have to go with a quarterback.

5. Arizona – Von Miller, OLB, Texas A&M

Most of the bobblehead bloggers have been late to the party on Miller. But I had him in my Top 5 in my original NFL Mock Draft two months ago. Nothing has changed here: “The Cardinals are running a 3-4 but they are woefully short on playmaking linebackers. Coach Ken Whisenhunt is trying to continue the Pittsburgh Steelers model and that requires fast, talented linebackers at the heart of the defense.”

6. Cleveland – Julio Jones, WR, Alabama

The general consensus is that Cleveland is desperate for defensive line help to ease their transition to the 4-3. However, I think the two guys that the Browns are most desperate for would be Green or Miller. But I have both projected to be off the board. However, if Green is still there then the Browns 100 percent need to take him. Since he isn’t, I think that the worst offense in the NFL over the last two years is so desperate for playmakers that they might have to reach a little.

This is really a “swing” pick here. If Cleveland plays it straight and takes Fairley then I think Julio Jones will slide to Washington. That would send a deep ripple through the defensive end depth chart and could have a big impact on the middle of Round 1. This is an important spot early in this draft.

7. San Francisco – Patrick Peterson, CB, LSU

It’s kind of tough to predict where new Coach Jim Harbaugh is going to want to make his mark. But there is no denying that San Fran needs help at corner. They have been holding their secondary together with chewing gum and duct tape for the past few seasons. Peterson might be the best pure talent in the whole field, so he would be kind of a steal in this situation. Harbaugh has enough sense to see that.

8. Tennessee – Nick Fairley, DT, Auburn

Back in February I predicted that the Titans were going to try to bulk up the defensive line instead of taking a young quarterback. It looks like the rest of the field has caught up. Fairley would be a really safe choice here. He is arguably the best defensive player available and was dominant in college. This team’s line was a sieve last year and they need some fresh blood. Mix in the fact that the Titans’ new defensive line coach trained Fairley at Auburn and this one is a no-brainer.

9. Dallas – Tyron Smith, OT, USC

I really debated over whether or not to stick with my original projection and go with Prince Amukamara here. (Dallas’ secondary was historically bad last year.) But I think that Smith would be the best selection for Dallas here. (Which is probably why they won’t take him.) It’s common knowledge that Jerry Jones has never selected an offensive lineman in the first round. After watching how his team crumbled without Tony Romo last year I can’t understand how the Boys would pass on a potential franchise tackle. Plus, if they have studied recent history teams that have drafted tackles early in Round 1 have made some of the biggest turnarounds in the league.

10. Washington – Robert Quinn, DE, North Carolina

Mike Shanahan has pushed all the wrong buttons so far in his brief tenure with the Redskins. And Daniel Snyder has been an unmitigated disaster since taking over the team. So there is really no telling what the team that is quickly becoming “Oakland East” will do with its pick. One thing is certain: they don’t have enough pass rushers in their 3-4 defense. And this is nice value on Quinn, who could go as early as No. 4. Washington’s best-case scenario is that one of the top offensive talents – Newton, Gabbert, Green, Jones or even Smith – falls to them here.

11. Houston – Prince Amukamara, CB, Nebraska

Every mock draft I’ve seen has Houston taking some combination of defensive line player. Huh? Have they watched the Texans play over the last 10 years? This team has never had quality secondary play. And the best corner in franchise history – mediocre Dunta Robinson – was allowed to walk before last year. The result: the league’s worst pass defense. Again. Prince is a true playmaker and he excelled in pass-wacky Big 12 country. To me this is exactly what Houston needs to start to turn the defense around. They brought in Wade Phillips to be the new DC. Let him work the front seven. But Phillips didn’t have any talent in the secondary in Dallas and it led to his demise. Let’s see if he learns from his mistakes.

12. Minnesota – Aldon Smith, DE, Missouri

The Vikings could go a lot of different ways here. Sidney Rice may skip town, which would make a receiver a priority. But Ray Edwards is also on his way out and the defensive line is aging. They need some new blood there so I think they will go with Aldon Smith over Bowers because of Bowers’ knee problems. When the Vikings were dominating people in 2009 it was because they controlled both lines of scrimmage. O-line help would suit them as well but I think this might be too early to get any of the other offensive linemen.

13. Detroit – Mike Pouncey, OL, Florida

The Lions may need to trade up to get one of the top two corners or trade down to get secondary help at the appropriate value. (I would be on the phone with Cincinnati right now and go after Peterson.) If they don’t do either of those things then I’d have to say that they failed here. The front four of this team is exceptional. Now they need to build up the back seven. If they can’t score a corner or get Smith at tackle then I think that Pouncey makes a lot of sense. His brother was a stud as a rookie for Pittsburgh last year and Detroit does still need to protect whatever quarterback is calling the plays. 14. St. Louis – Corey Liuget, DT, Illinois

The Rams are in a very similar spot to the Lions in that they have some pretty specific needs. Those needs differ, save one: help in the secondary. They would definitely need to move up to get one of the top corners and I think the whole first round could be dictated by which of these two teams is the most aggressive. And if the answer is “neither” then these picks will still ripple. Bowers would be really, really hard to pass up here. But St. Louis shouldn’t be taking those types of risks when they are so close to breaking through with their young talent.

15. Miami – Da’Quan Bowers, DE, Clemson

Finally, I think that here is a place where Bowers could be worth the gamble. He was the No. 1 player out of high school and, up until his Pro Day turned into a horror show, he was considered a lock for the Top 5, if not the No. 1 overall slot. Miami has such a young defense already that I think they can roll the dice here and hope that Bowers comes back in top form to grow with an up-and-coming unit.

16. Jacksonville – J.J. Watt, DE, Wisconsin

This team is powerful up front on both sides, but has glaring needs in the secondary and at the skill positions on offense. The problem is there is no one to take in this spot that would fit those needs. Again, if I were the Jaguars I would be trying to trade into that Top 10. If not, then I think Watt, a guy that is streaking up draft boards, could be a nice consolation prize. He would also make a nice insurance policy behind the aging Aaron Kampman.

17. New England – Cameron Jordan, DE, Cal

The Patriots have this pick from the Richard Seymour trade and I think they will continue to stockpile fast, athletic front seven players. They need some pure pass rushers and Jordan could fit the bill. Also, with two first rounders the Patriots can afford to gamble a little here and draft on potential. Also, I think that Bill Belichick would really like the fact that Jordan’s dad as a former Pro Bowl tight end and 13-year NFL veteran (Steve Jordan). It gives insight into the type of character that Belichick always seems to go for.

18. San Diego – Akeem Ayers, OLB, Tennessee

It is really hard to pinpoint where the Chargers need to improve. The Lord of No Rings, A.J. Smith, always does a solid job in the draft so I will defer to him. I think that Smith will snap a string of defensive linemen going off the board and he’ll grab the high-upside, ultra-speedy Ayers to mold into the Chargers front seven.

19. New York Giants – Anthony Castonzo, OT, Boston College

For the second year in a row the Giants may be the most unpredictable team in the first round. But the offensive line has endured age, injury, and ineffectiveness over the past two seasons so I think they will add some beef. Castonzo has been impressive in his workouts and I think that the Giants will be more comfortable going with him over Nate Solder because Castonzo played in Boston. It’s ironic that the draft is loaded with defensive ends – a position the Giants always seem to load up on – but I have them taking a tackle.

20. Tampa Bay – Adrian Clayborn, DE, Iowa

A little bit of a surprise here, I’m going with Clayborn to go off the board before more highly considered Ryan Kerrigan. Tampa Bay has been an excellent judge of young talent in recent years and they have perhaps the best young core in the league. I think they would also see the pure talent that Clayborn, a guy projected in the Top 15 of last year’s draft, possesses. He fits a need and could break out at the next level.

21. Kansas City – Nate Solder, OT, Colorado

Last year the Chiefs passed up addressing their offensive line and took Eric Berry. Berry turned out to be a touchdown pick. But now they need to keep building the foundation of their team. They devised a brilliant offensive scheme that turned a weak offensive line into a strength through trapping, draws, screens, and the outright athleticism of their backfield. But Solder, a guy that some scouts think has Top 15 talent, would be a nice fit here.

22. Indianapolis – Gabe Carimi, OT, Wisconsin

I’m going to stick with what I had before: “Believe it or not, this team has a ton of holes. I think they need linebackers, a defensive tackle, some secondary help, and maybe a running back. But instead they will once again coddle Peyton Manning and spend a high draft pick protecting him. Then again, when you’ve had as much success in the draft as the Colts it is tough to question their methods.”

23. Philadelphia – Derek Sherrod, OT, Mississippi State

I have gone back and forth on this pick a few times. I think that Philadelphia’s most pressing need is in the secondary and they could have their pick of several talented corners that have slipped through the cracks. But I can’t ignore Philadelphia’s track record of taking linemen early. They gave up 52 sacks last year as a team so Sherrod, a guy with a lot of upside, makes a lot of sense.

24. New Orleans – Ryan Kerrigan, DE, Purdue

The Saints grabbed Shaun Rogers early in free agency and that was a big pickup. It doesn’t necessarily mean that they won’t go for another defensive tackle. But I think the odds are that they will grab the sliding Kerrigan and fill another need (pass rusher).

25. Seattle – Muhammad Wilkerson, DT, Temple

I would LOVE to slot Jake Locker in here. I, personally, wouldn’t touch Locker with a 10-foot pole. But you can’t deny that Seattle needs a long-term quarterback solution and that the locals would love to keep Locker in the Pacific Northwest. But I think that Pete Carroll will be practical here and fill a need. Seattle’s defensive line was bad last year and it is losing players to free agency. They will bulk up.

26. Baltimore – Jimmy Smith, CB, Colorado

There is a lot of internal buzz about Cameron Heyward if he is at this spot. But I don’t see how they could ignore their shoddy secondary. Ozzie Newsome might be the best drafting executive in the NFL, so I when the Monday after the draft rolls around I will likely really like whatever it is that they decide to do.

27. Atlanta – Justin Houston, LB, Georgia

I personally think that the Falcons need to do absolutely everything they can to get a No. 2 receiver. However, if that isn’t in the cards then I think Houston would be a win on several fronts. He is a local kid, playing at UGA, so the Falcons fans would be thrilled. He also fits the need of an athletic pass rusher. I think that Atlanta would be better served by grabbing a pass-rushing end. But those ranks should be plenty thinned out by the time they pick here.

28. New England – Stephen Paea, DT, Oregon State

The Patriots should use both of their picks on their front seven. I wanted to call for a mini-upset and look for them to grab guard Orlando Franklin. But instead I think that they stay on the defensive side of the ball and go with high-motor, high-character guys that they think can step right in and have a positive impact.

29. Chicago – Marvin Austin, DT, North Carolina

It is pretty obvious where Chicago’s main issues are. But unfortunately I don’t know if there are any worth being taken in this slot. The Bears cut ties with former top pick Tommie Harris in the offseason and they don’t want their front seven to suffer. I think Chicago could go with a corner in this slot as well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they nabbed Aaron Williams if he were still available. Austin could have been a Top 10 pick if he had been able to play this season. Someone will gamble on him and I think it will pay off.

30. New York Jets – Cameron Heyward, DE, Ohio State

Much like the cross-town Giants, the Jets really could go a lot of different ways with their top pick. I think they would be wary of taking another Ohio State lineman after the Vernon Gholston debacle. But Heyward has the type of versatility that Rex Ryan loves, and he can be groomed for several slots along the defensive line. I think that the Jets would benefit from going out and getting safety help, but instead I think they will go to the well with another pass rusher.

31. Pittsburgh – Aaron Williams, CB, Texas

Even though I stand by my mock I think it would be odd if Williams lasts this long. Pittsburgh was torn up by the Green Bay passing game and they have to wrestle with Tom Brady and Peyton Manning each year in the AFC. To say that the secondary is an issue is a bit of an understatement, so I think they would be getting a steal if Williams lasted this long.

32. Green Bay – Brooks Reed, LB, Arizona

I really wanted to project Randall Cobb here. In my initial mock I had Cobb going to Atlanta at No. 27. And as odd as it sounds the Packers have a need at wideout. James Jones is a free agent, Donald Driver is old, and Greg Jennings is injury prone. I think Cobb is going to be a big-time playmaker in the NFL. But instead, I will play “safe” and continue the defense-dominated first round. You can never have too many talented linebackers in the 3-4 and Reed is a guy with a lot of passion. He doesn’t have first round talent. But could be in the Aaron Kampman mold for the Packers.
 

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