The innermost truths of college football betting have been exposed for all to see. Only the biggest money programs with the best recruiters can even hope to contend for the BCS national championship. And if they happen to violate some NCAA rules along the way, too bad. It'll be years before they get caught - if they get caught at all. The bets you make on the NCAA futures market have to reflect this competitive reality.

Having said that, we have an unusual opening in 2010 for one of the "little guys" to possibly break through. The USC Trojans have been banned from the postseason for the next two years, thus opening up the top of the food chain for a West Coast-based non-BCS team to be allowed into the championship game. That would be the Boise State Broncos. They went undefeated in the WAC last year at 13-0 SU (8-5 ATS), then they scored a 17-10 victory over the Texas Christian Horned Frogs (-7) at the Fiesta Bowl. The Broncos are priced competitively to win the national title this year at 8-1. Will this be their year?

Unlikely. The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) is heavily biased toward members of the so-called BCS conferences, aka the Big Six: the SEC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-10, ACC and Big East. The champions of each of these conferences get automatic bids into the Rose, Orange, Fiesta and Sugar Bowls. Meanwhile, the rankings determining the No. 1 and No. 2 teams that go on to the championship game are mostly subjective. The Harris Interactive College Football Poll and the USA Today Coaches' Poll carry two-thirds of the weight in the rankings; only the remaining third is based on "computer rankings" from six different providers, rankings that handicappers often use to give them a more objective sense of which teams are actually worth their salt.

Even those rankings can give quality non-BCS teams the short shrift. They take strength of schedule into account, and quite frankly, the WAC is filled with a bunch of low-end teams that the Broncos regularly pummel into the ground. There have been 10 undefeated teams from non-BCS conferences going into the bowl season since 1998; four of them were Boise State (2004, 2006, 2008 and 2009), and the highest the Broncos ever ranked on the BCS computers was No. 6. On two occasions they were completely shut out of the major bowls, let alone given a sniff at the national title. The BCS system as it is makes it difficult to recommend the Broncos on the college football futures market, Trojans or no Trojans.

The seat of power in college football lies in the SEC. They've produced the last four national champions since the BCS National Championship Game was created, and the reigning champion Alabama Crimson Tide are the favorites to repeat at 4-1. They're almost certain to be the No. 1 team in the preseason rankings; they have a respected program under coach Nick Saban, and ‘Bama returns the bulk of what was a fantastic offense last year. But in reality, the defense has some holes to fill and the special teams are relying on true freshmen Cade Foster at place-kicker. The Tide are clearly overvalued at this price.

But who will dethrone them? The Ohio State Buckeyes are the only other top contenders at 5-1, and they'll be relying on QB Terrell Pryor (18 TDs, 11 INTs) to cut down on the mistakes he made last year. Most of those mistakes, though, happened in the first half of the 2009 season. Pryor and the Buckeyes won their last six games at 5-1 ATS, beating the Oregon Ducks (-4.5) at the Rose Bowl. As long as he continues on his developmental curve, and provided PK Devin Barclay (a former walk-on refugee from Major League Soccer) can hold it together over the course of a full season, the Buckeyes under coach Jim Tressel are sure to get the votes they need to dominate the rankings. Not only that, there's no Big Ten championship game to trip them up - until next year.

It's Crimson Tide-Buckeyes all the way until proven otherwise. Quarterback changes have taken a bit of the air out of the Oklahoma Sooners (15-2), Florida Gators (10-1) and Texas Longhorns (14-1). All three programs have won the national championship in the BCS era, but one or two FBS losses is all it would take to derail their title hopes this year. The Gators play the Crimson Tide in Alabama on October 2 (8:00 p.m. ET, CBS). Mark you calendars.

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Terron Chapman
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