by T.O. Whenham - 05/07/2008
We're only a month or so into the baseball season, and summer isn't even here yet, but that doesn't mean that we can't start looking towards October. Everyone makes World Series predictions before the season starts, so it only makes sense that you would revisit those predictions once you have seen 20 percent of the season. Things can change, even in a month - Detroit sure doesn't look like the lock out of the AL that they used to. Since the Tigers were certainly on my list, I'll pretend my last World Series predictions never happened and start over again now. All odds are from Bodog:
National League
The New York Mets are the current favorites at 13/2. Though they have to be favored on the basis of payroll alone, it seems odd that the favorites aren't even in a playoff position right now - they trail the Phillies in their division and the Cubs in the wild card. Despite that there are a lot of reasons to like this team. They have won five of their last seven, and they are finally becoming comfortable in their own skin. They took two of three from the Diamondbacks this weekend, and Johan Santana is looking more and more like Johan Santana every time he takes the ball. The most comforting part with this team is that there is clearly room to grow. The two Carlos' - Beltran and Delgado - have been awful at the plate so far, but both are showing recent signs of life and will surely provide more offense as the summer continues. There is room for offensive growth from Jose Reyes and David Wright as well. They have remained competitive with only decent pitching and struggling offense, so it is hard not to like their upside.
Next up in the odds, and increasing in popularity as the season progresses, is Arizona. The Diamondbacks have the best record in the league, and they have fallen to 7/1 in World Series betting. This team is a dream for bettors who like deep, solid pitching. Brandon Webb is as good as it gets, Danny Haren has been a great addition, Micah Owings and Randy Johnson are very good for their spots in the rotation, and the fifth spot has been a problem but will improve now that rookie Max Scherzer is there and Doug Davis will be back soon. Despite that, I have a few concerns about this team at this price. They have done much better against bad teams than good, and they are still pretty young. They aren't grossly underpriced, but I don't see any value either.
If you were one of the few people not caught off guard by the start the Cardinals have had then you probably love the 28/1 price you can have on them. Few would have seen them in the World Series back in March, but few would have guessed that they would set a franchise record for wins in April, either.
The top two are the most logical picks, but the Cubs are also in the mix, and they are comparatively attractive at 10/1. They have the bats to be competitive. The pitching hasn't been as impressive quite yet, but they are working on it. I still would pick the Mets if I were to take just one team, but Chicago is a factor at this price.
American League
Everything is a bit of a mess in the land of the DH. The odds of Detroit and Cleveland are higher now than they were, but that sure doesn't make them any more attractive. The Red Sox are the heavy favorites in the league and overall at 9/2. That fits given the state of the league. They are firmly in control of their division right now and they are the only one of the five teams in the group that doesn't have major questions. They have had a reasonably tough schedule and they have come through fine. This kind of price isn't attractive at this point, but as much as I hate to admit it they are the team to beat.
The Yankees are next at 13/2. That's the same price as the Mets, and this team is not nearly as attractive. For the second year in a row they have got off to a slow start, and it gets harder to believe every year that they will be able to bounce back and win it all. I'm staying away from this one in a big way.
The Angels are the closest thing to value in the American League. They are at the top of the AL West, and despite a solid showing so far from Oakland we can be fairly confident that that is where the Angels will stay. They have had outstanding pitching at the top of the rotation from Ervin Santana and Joe Saunders, and they won their series against Boston. Torii Hunter has been a great addition, and the team finally has the depth at the plate that they have needed to put themselves back over the top. At 9/1, they don't look bad at all. I would pick them to play the Mets at this point because picking New York and Boston is just depressingly boring.
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