Monday, October 02, 2017
Washington Redskins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (NFL) - 8:30 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -295 Kansas City Chiefs Pick Title: 9 Star MNF Smart Play (WIN)
This series goes all the way back to 1971 when the Chiefs of HC Hank Stram came from behind to defeat the then only NFL undefeated team Redskins (5-0) as QB Len Dawson connected on a deep route to Otis Taylor. QB Billy Kilmer tried to tie it for HC George Allen's "Over The Hill Gang" but turned it over on downs in the last minute of a 27-20 loss @ old Municipal Stadium. This series has seen much of the same transpire as KC has beaten Washington 6 times in a row coming into this affair. I've been to Arrowhead & it's a very difficult place to win for a roadie. HC Andy "The Walrus" Reid has his Chiefs @ 23-9 SU @ home since taking over the job in 2013. Reid does have a semi-conservative game plan @ times which is why we'll play this on the ML as opposed to buying points down to -5 1/2. My bottom line says you can't ignore the consistency of Toledo grad & rookie RB Kareem Hunt (401 rushing yards, 8.4 yards a pop, 4 TD's & 137 receiving yards, 2 TD's) or their other playmaker WR Tyreek Hill (253 receiving yards, 15.8 YPR, 2 TD's). Whether he's boring or not (and he's not this year) QB Alex Smith (774 passing yards,77.4% completions, a 7/0 TD/INT ratio & a superb 132.7 QBR) is playing like the best QB in the NFL. Hunt's been a big part of Smith's success as he's the 1st player since Billy Sims (1980) to score 6 TD's in his 1st 3 games of his career. The daggers for us has to be the East-West trip for the Skins' as well as the Chiefs already opportunistic @ +4 in turnover ratio with their offense with 1 TO in 3 games. I'm not saying this is a repeat of the KC 45-10 win @ Washington back in 2013, but these Chiefs (8-1 SU lifetime versus the Skins') can go 2 games up over the Patriots with a "W" tonight. Playing @ home throughout the playoffs is a BIG deal for Reid & Company right now. On account of KC's out of this world 13-2 record ATS record the past 15 regular season games, we will focus on the ML here. Remember, Washington has lost all 4 trips they've made to Missouri against this non-conference foe that has LOLB Justin Houston & LILB Derrick Johnson @ the peak of their defensive skills in the middle of DC Bob Sutton's 3-4 scheme. Let's go to noisy Arrowhead Stadium to play the KANSAS CITY CHIEFS as my 9 Star MNF Smart Play!
Sunday, October 01, 2017
Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 6.0/-103 Los Angeles Rams Pick Title: 9 Star ATS Situational Slammer (WIN)
This is the PERFECT situation for HC Sean McVay to take advantage. Theyve had extra time to get ready for this roadie since their game last Thursday. Dallas is fresh off a fortunate win @ Arizona on MNF. There's many things to like about this matchup. First, DC Wade Phillips gets an EXTRA 3 days to install new wrinkles to his 3-4 hybrid defensive scheme led by 3-Time Pro Bowler & DT Aaron Donald. Second, Sophomore QB Jared Goff (5/1 TD/INT ratio good for a 118.2 QBR-a rating that's 54+ points higher than last year) is looking more comfortable in OC Matt LaFleur's system as well as RB Todd Gurley (241 yards rushing & another 140 receiving) whose looking just as fresh as his Georgia days. This is especially important since the Cowboys' defense CANNOT load the box against L.A.'s balanced attack. Numbers don't lie about short rest as Dallas failed miserably in this role overall ATS & SU between 2013 & 2015. Add to it an 0-6 ATS @ home & 0-8 ATS anywhere off a Monday nighter & we certainly have something more than brewing. Since HC Jason Garrett took over the job, he's a ticket-ripping 2-10 ATS taking on a team fresh off of a 35+ point performance. My bottom line says to Vegas, Nice try!" We'll be moving the line right back to where our number is! The dagger here is a banged up Cowboys' secondary that L.A. should be able to exploit. Let's go to AT&T Stadium in Arlington to play the upstart 2-1 LOS ANGELES RAMS (buying to + 7 1/2 @ -153) as my 9 Star ATS Situational Slammer!
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Los Angeles Chargers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -130 Los Angeles Chargers Pick Title: Mike's 10 Star Public Missed Perception Play (WIN)
The 0/3 TD/INT ratio by QB Phillip Rivers is not indicative of his season thus far that has him @ 4/4 TD/INT ratio. Without the TO's (which will happen today), this is a decent squad that can beat a team like Philadelphia in front of their partisan fans that haven't seen a win since 1960! RB Melvin Gordon will get the bulk of L.A.'s carries for rookie HC Anthony Lynn. Look for Gordon & WR Keenan Allen to register yardage on a banged-up Philly defense. Remember, OC Ken Whisenhunt will SAVOR this win since the Eagles' declined on him for the HC job back in 2013. He'll make sure to completely take Philadelphia out of their element (artificial turf team) & exploit their weaknesses with matchup problems. In the numbers find that HC Doug Pederson is 2-8 SU & 3-7 ATS on the road since taking over the Eagles. New DC Gus Bradley is seeing improvement as DE's Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram & Company are settling into his new 4-3, Cover-3 defensive scheme which should be more effective than John Pagano's attacking 3-4 last season. My bottom line says that Philadelphia laid it all out on the field in their intense rivalry game with the New York Giants last & will find it hard to finish off L.A. especially in the second half. Remember, the Giants put up 24-4th quarter points on Philly's "D" forcing rookie kicker Jake Elliott to kick the longest made Philly & rookie FG (61-yarder) @ the buzzer for a 27-24 win. The dagger for us has to be Philadelphia's RB's looking to make the transition since pivotal RB/KR Darren Sproles was lost for the season last week when he went down with a torn anterior cruciate ligament and broken arm. Now they go on grass witha 3-hour time change to try to find the right chemistry by committee using LeGarrette Blount, Wendell Smallwood & Corey Clement. The Chargers are not as bad as their record indicates since 2 of the 3 losses were W's if rookie kicker Younghoe Koo didn't miss 3 chip shots. L.A. has also won 6 of 7 ATS in this series with the eagles losing their last 5 trips when traveling to Chargerland. Let's make way to California to play the LOS ANGELES CHARGERS as my 10 Star Public Missed Perception Play!
New Orleans Saints vs. Miami Dolphins (NFL) - 9:30 AM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -170 New Orleans Saints Pick Title: Mike's 8 Star London Calling Play (WIN)
Here's edition #2 of 4 of the NFL in the UK! This is worthy of an 8 Star based on inside information & adjustments made by both head coaches (Adam Gase & Sean Payton). Payton seems to have the right idea on approaching this as he & his Saints immediately flew over to England on a team charter after their Week 3 convincing win @ Carolina. What changed in Week 3 that led to such sudden domination of an opponent after an 0-2 start? It's HC Payton & OC Pete Carmichael changing of their offensive game plan to be more suitable in opening up more options for their QB Drew Brees to work with. Brees (6/0 TD/INT ratio, 68.5% completions, sacked just 3 times & has an impressive 109.7 QBR) will now have yet another WR @ his disposal since Willie Snead is set to make his season debut after serving a 3-game suspension for a June DUI arrest. Snead will trade downs with a bevy of receivers like Thomas, Ginn, Fleener, Ingram, Coleman & Lewis. On the flip side of the coin, the Dolphins are clearly still searching for their identity under new QB Jay Cutler (2/1 TD/INT ratio, 64.9% completions, sacked 5 times & has a 83.8 QBR). I don't trust this team since they should be 0-2 IF the Chargers rookie K Koo didn't miss 2 chip shots that resulted in a gift 19-17 win. In the numbers notices that New Orleans is a perfect 5-0 ATS after taking on the Panthers. My bottom line says the Dolphins DON'T want to be here! Owner Stephen Ross went as far as appealing this game for a game @ Miami Gardens. His appeal was denied by the NFL. The dagger for us has to be the Saints' focus. There's NOBODY clear ahead since their bye week sits immediately on deck. I like the fact that Brees has the 3-headed monster @ his disposal with RB's Ingram, Peterson & Kamara who are averaging 1 1/2 yards better than Ajayi & Company. Let's go over to Wembley Stadium in London to play the NEW ORLEANS SAINTS as my 8 Star London Calling Play!
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Jets (NFL) - 1:00 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 3.5/-115 New York Jets Pick Title: 9 Star Barking Out Loud Dogger (WIN)
The Jags did look solid against the Ravens last week in London by almost pitching a shutout if it weren't for a Baltimore TD with about 4 minutes left in the game. The problem I have with Jacksonville points toward how well they've strung 2 wins together. If you go back to the 2014 season, you'll find that these same Jags have lost 8 of the last 10 times they've tried to win in back-to-back games (averaging less than 1 time a season). When we look @ the Jets, they've won 4 of 10 after coming of exactly 1 win. For this matchup, I'm not sure how well the Jaguars will respond to the road favorite that they enjoy for the 1st time in 44 games. There's a quick knee-jerk reaction to this game to take the Jags since New York's top RB Matt Forte is out. But which one of these teams have shown they can move this sticks better on 3rd down? The answer is QB Josh McCown who owns a clear 6% plus advantage over Jacksonville's Blake Bortles. In QB accuracy, McCown also has completed passes over 10 percentage points better than Bortles. In the numbers says that teams do very well off a London trip. But those records were compiled over the last 5 seasons AND with a bye week in between. That's NOT the case here. If the Jets stop Jacksonville's ground game with Fournette & Ivory (they held Miami to 15 rushes for 30 yards last week), they'll also be one less WR to worry about since their #1 receiver Allen Robinson is out. My bottom line points out this is a game where to exercise my 60-point road exhaustion theory against the Jags. Jacksonville had a bye week after every past London game EXCEPT this one! They have a game @ Pittsburgh immediately on-deck while New York will enjoy a game @ Cleveland. In a close game of field position, we'll side with the team with the best punter in Lachlan Edwards. Edwards pinned 3 balls way inside the 20 last week @ this venue. I'm looking for Bortles to revert back to old ways since his 6/2 TD/INT ratio seems way too surreal. Let's go to New Jersey's MetLife Stadium to play the NEW YORK JETS (buying to 4 1/2 @ -155) as my 9 Star Barking Out Loud Dogger!
New York Giants vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (NFL) - 4:05 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Point Spread: 3.0/-125 New York Giants Pick Title: 9 Star Desperation Mode Roader (WIN)
It's no secret that the 0-3 Giants have their backs against the wall being in a severe must-win situation. In fact, the only 0-3 teams the last 27 seasons (since the start of the 12-team playoff format) that were fortunate to go to the post-season are just 3, the 1992 Chargers, 1995 Lions & the Doug Flutie-led 1998 Bills. This roughly represents about a 2% chance of success. It certainly took a little time for QB Eli Manning to work #1 top wideout Odell Beckham Jr. back into the groove. This will also be a BIG step-up in competition for DC Mike Smith's 4-3 alignment (with some 3-4 & 3-3-5 looks) being up against Manning after facing Mike Glennon & Case Keenum in back-to-back weeks. But on the flip side of the coin, we find a hard-to-figure QB in Jameis Winston (3/3 TD/INT ratio) who still minus his best RB Doug Martin whose serving the last week of his suspension. I strongly believe New York DC Steve Spagnuolo can make things uncomfortable for Winston by using an effective 4-3 alignment with front line pressure mixed with aggressive CB play that challenge receivers on the line of scrimmage. The Giants' CB trio of Janoris Jenkins, Eli Apple & Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie should be able to contain WR's Mike Evans & journeyman DeSean Jackson. My bottom line says Eli Manning (who shook off any rust with 24 4th-quarter points & 366 passing yards last week) should know how to pick apart a banged up Tampa Bay defense (missing 5 players) since the blueprints were just laid by Case Keenum! Numbers also support this play since the Buccaneers have lost 5 in a row SU in this series & sit 1-8 ATS in the first of back-to-back home games. My dagger points @ the Giants total which I believe will be between 28-31 points. Tampa Bay is a perfect 0-8 SU their past 8 tries when giving up 25 or more points, 2-8 ATS as home chalk & are 1-8 ATS when favorite by over 2 points. The Giants also face a step down in competition after facing Dallas, Detroit & Philly to start the season. Let's go to Raymond James Stadium in Florida to play the NEW YORK GIANTS as my 9 Star Desperation Mode Roader!
Oakland Raiders vs. Denver Broncos (NFL) - 4:25 PM EDT Premium Pick
Pick: Money Line: -170 Denver Broncos Pick Title: 9 Star NFL Bailout Play Of The Week Win
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This is the pick that delivers if you unfortunately missed our early games. This is yet another game for Oakland that moves them from that East-West situational disadvantage of last week to a mile-high situational disadvantage this week. If anyone watched closely in Week 2, Denver's secondary (especially CB's Aqib Talib & Chris Harris, Jr.) DOMINATED Zak Prescott & the Dallas Cowboys' receivers to the tune of a 42-17 score. There should be excellent film & blueprints to take in on the Redskins' "D" limiting Raiders' QB Derek Carr to 7-1st downs, 118 passing yards & throwing 2 INT's). This week, we're not asking for a blowout but we'll be serious on the Broncos to post the "W". Oakland failed 24-6 in this altitude last year but still lead this original AFL series by a 61-50-2 count. For this matchup, I believe that Denver RB C.J. Anderson (235 rushing yards @ 4.4 yards a pop, 1 TD & 50 receiving yards & another TD) is the biggest playmaker in the backfield. However, adding Jamaal Charles to the backfield this season (142 rushing yards @ 5.1 yards a pop) certainly puts opposing defenses @ a disadvantage since a secondary will have its hands full containing Emmanuel Sanders (163 receiving yards) & Demaryius Thomas (team-leading 236 receiving yards). QB Trevor Siemian (averaging 3 TD passes a game @ home) should enjoy his balanced offense going up against a defense that hasn't generated an INT this season. Siemian should have extensive knowledge learned from his QB coach Bill Musgrave who came over from being Jack Del Rio's OC the prior 2 seasons. My bottom line says that last weeks' 26-16 road loss by Denver to the Bills was more of a look-ahead flat situation than a mismatch. In the numbers says the Broncos enjoy an 8-2-1 ATS advantage the last 11 in this series as well as the Raiders being an ice-cold 1-8 ATS the last 9 Game 4's of the season. Let's ride the DENVER BRONCOS as my 9 Star Bailout Play Of The Week! NOTE: Adjust our N.Y. Giants play to taking them @ + 4 1/2 off the buy laying the extra 50 cents or so of juice.
NOTES: The L.A. Chargers had everything going for them as far as situations, trends & home field was concerned. Then QB Philip "Fumble It Away On The 1st Series In FG Range" Rivers set the worst tone he could to start the game by giving the traveling team early momentum with a TO. It was just enough (26-24) as we missed a 7-0 week by that FG they could have had before that TO. Well, we promised & delivered a 6-1 as the NFL numbers climbed right back to where they were in our NFL Handicapping World Championship run year. Let's continue this assault as teams will start to gel & show their strengths & weaknesses in the next 3-4 weeks. Stay tuned as we look for consistent rushers, strong possession minutes & defenses that are consistently getting TO's. Thanks for your loyalty & belief that we can smash Vegas once again! Here's our current numbers:
2017-18 NFL Overall Seasonal Record: 13-9-----59%