Where the Math was Right and Wrong

By: John Ryan     Date: Jul 11, 2018


Where The Math was right and Where it was Wrong • July 10, 2018 MLB Review • THREE 7-Star wagers and 2-1 result for a net gain of 1.00 units. • MLB 10-Star plays 8-3 or $4,950.00 based on $100 per ‘star’ unit wager. • MLB 2018 7-Star 43-40 and 5.82 units x $700 = $4,074 • MLB 2018 5-Star 10-5 and 7.60 units x $500 = $3,800 MLB Overall 2018 $12,824.00 • 7-Star wager on the OVER in the Minnesota-Kansas City Game. Projections - What was predicted: Algorithm summary projections call for these two teams to combine for minimums of 20 hits and at least 3 MRI multiple run innings. Games played since 2004 where these measures have been met or exceeded, the OVER is an incredible 8136-276-162 for 97% making $783,860 for 83% ROI. o The Final score was 9-4 eclipsing the 9.5 total by 3.5 runs. o Royals had 15 hits and Twins 9 hits for a total of 24 hits. o There were three MRI. • 7-star wager on the Chicago White Sox at +155 o Projections - CWS are projected to get a minimum of 10 hits and 3 walks. IN past games, where the CWS have achieved these minimum performance levels and are installed as home dogs, they have produced a 55-23 record for 71% and has made $4,461.00 averaging a 124.6 wager since 2004. Since 2016, they have produced a 17-7 mark for 71% averaging a 135.7 wager and making $1,546 for a strong 64.4% ROI. Since 2016 and adding in only games where the CWS were installed as 150 or greater home dogs, they have gone 5-2 for 71% averaging a 186.6 wager and making $701 for a 100% ROI. o Final score was 14-2 St. Louis Cardinals – Wrong. o CWS had only 5 hits underperforming projections by 5 hits. o CWS had 2 BB underperforming projections by 1 BB. • 7-Star wager on the Los Angeles Angels o Projections - The Angels are projected to get a minimum of 10 hits and score a minimum of 5 runs. In addition, their hurler, Garrett Richards is projected to complete a minimum of 6 innings. So, when the Angels have played home games installed as a favorite and achieved these performance levels, they have gone 195-15 for 93% averaging a -163 wager and making $17,257 for a stout 50% ROI. The Run Line for these games has gone 122-32 for 79% averaging a 136 wager and making $13,478 for an 86% ROI. o Angels won 9-3 o Angels had 15 hits exceeding projections by 5. o Angels had 9 runs exceeding projections by 4 runs. o Starter Richards completed 2 2/3 innings underperforming by 3.5 innings.


 
 
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